Indian Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Monsoon Arrives Unevenly

Indian raisin prices are broadly steady, with only marginal upticks in recent days, as domestic demand remains solid and export interest is stable. Weather risk in Maharashtra is easing slightly with the monsoon beginning to advance, but uneven rainfall and earlier heat stress keep a mild risk premium in place. Indian raisin trade is currently operating in a narrow price corridor, with golden, black and brown grades in New Delhi showing flat week‑on‑week levels after modest gains earlier in June. The slow but improving monsoon onset over Maharashtra and adjoining regions reduces immediate crop stress, yet sub-par early June rainfall and lingering heat have not fully removed concerns for 2026/27 supply. Globally, Turkish producers continue to signal a preference for higher grape/raisin prices, which underpins export quotations and indirectly supports Indian offers into key markets. For now, buyers see little incentive to chase the market, while sellers remain reluctant to discount ahead of clearer monsoon and crop signals.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR/kg using an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 90 INR and 1 EUR = 90 TRY (for context only).

Recent Indian wholesale data from official channels confirm only modest movement in dried fruit prices nationally around 20 June, consistent with a generally stable tone in raisins. Turkish producers in the Manisa region are publicly calling for significantly higher fresh grape prices for the coming season, which signals a firm stance ahead of dried grape price setting.

Supply & Demand

Domestically, India’s raisin pipeline remains reasonably comfortable at this late stage of the 2025/26 marketing year. There is no evidence of acute spot tightness in New Delhi or other major consuming centres, with flat prices indicating a balanced cash market rather than panic buying or forced selling.

Export demand appears steady rather than spectacular. While no major new tenders were reported in the last three days, buyers in price‑sensitive markets still compare Indian offers with Turkish and Chinese sultanas, where current quotations are broadly similar or slightly higher in EUR terms for standard grades. This narrows arbitrage and encourages Indian sellers to hold offers, especially for better‑colour golden material.

On the import side, India remains largely self‑sufficient in raisins, with only niche inflows. As a result, global fluctuations in South African, Chilean or U.S. raisins have limited direct price impact today, though any significant step‑up in Turkish or global sultana prices later in the year would quickly filter into Indian export ideas.

Weather & Crop Outlook (India – Maharashtra Focus)

The monsoon onset over Maharashtra and northwestern India has been delayed and uneven in June, with early‑month rainfall deficits and persistent heat in parts of western and central India. Pune district, a proxy for western Maharashtra, has seen an estimated rainfall deficit above 80% by mid‑June, triggering concerns about moisture stress.

However, the last 2–3 days have brought a notable change: the southwest monsoon has now reached Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra, with forecasts for thunderstorms and moderate to heavy precipitation over Konkan, central Maharashtra and Marathwada through this week. At the same time, Delhi is receiving pre‑monsoon showers and thunderstorms, easing heatwave conditions in northern India.

For raisin‑producing belts of Maharashtra (including Nashik and Sangli regions), this pattern implies short‑term relief from extreme heat and improving soil moisture profiles as June ends. Given that the main drying season is behind and current activity relates more to field and vine conditions for the next crop, the weather shift slightly reduces downside yield risk but does not yet guarantee a normal 2026/27 harvest.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks: Comfortable Indian end‑season inventories limit upside pressure for immediate deliveries, particularly in black and brown grades.
• Weather risk premium: The combination of earlier heatwaves and delayed monsoon keeps some optionality in forward pricing; sellers are reluctant to discount before July rainfall performance becomes clear.
• Turkey signalling firmness: Manisa grape growers lobbying for fresh grape prices of at least around TRY 180/kg (~2.00 EUR/kg farmgate) suggest expectations for firm dried grape economics, indirectly underpinning global raisin benchmarks.
• Macro & FX: Recent volatility in Indian financial markets and the rupee has been modest over June, providing a relatively stable FX backdrop for export pricing in EUR terms.

3‑Day Price & Trading Outlook (Region: IN)

Over the next three trading days (23–25 June 2026), the base case is for Indian raisin prices in New Delhi to remain in a tight range:

• Golden AA (FCA/FOB): Bias steady to slightly firm (0–1% range) as exporters test higher offers but face cautious buying.
• Black AA and Brown AA (FCA/FOB): Expected broadly flat, with limited spot liquidity and no strong directional catalyst.

The advancing monsoon in Maharashtra, with forecast thunderstorms and improved rains, reduces immediate weather‑driven upside but does not yet warrant lower prices. Any notable shift will likely wait for clearer July rainfall data and updated crop assessments.

Trading Recommendations

• Indian buyers (food industry): Use the current sideways market to cover short‑ to medium‑term needs in black and brown grades; consider staggering purchases of golden AA given potential upside if Turkish prices firm further.
• Exporters (India): Maintain offers in line with current EUR benchmarks; avoid deep discounts until July monsoon performance is clearer and Turkish new‑season price signals are confirmed.
• Overseas buyers (EU/MENA): Monitor Indian golden AA as a competitive alternative to Turkish sultanas; current parity suggests room for selective forward coverage in EUR.