Tight Raisin Supply Meets Rising Turkish Support Prices – Window for Buyers

Farm-gate and export raisins prices are under upward pressure as Turkey prepares a large TMO intervention, while farmers hold back stocks and importers still find selectively attractive offers in EUR. The raisin market is entering the new season with tightening on-farm supply and expectations of significantly higher Turkish support prices. Ahead of any official announcement, exporters are competing to secure remaining stocks, while most growers are reluctant sellers at current raw material levels. At the same time, international EUR-denominated offers show only modest week‑on‑week gains, creating a temporary opportunity for buyers to lock in volume before new-crop pricing is fully reflected. Weather in Western Turkey is seasonally warm to hot, supporting vineyard development without immediate stress risk.

Prices & Market Structure

Raw material prices in Turkey are reported around 80–85 TRY/kg, with market expectations that TMO will step in for around 100,000 tons of raisins. Indicative intervention ideas focus on roughly 120 TRY/kg for grade 8 and 140 TRY/kg for grade 9, implying a clearly higher floor versus current farm-gate levels if confirmed.

Exporters expect seasonal raisin prices around 5 USD/kg for the coming campaign, although it is still too early to know whether this level will be achieved in the spot market. Meanwhile, exporters are aggressively trying to buy remaining farmer stocks even before official prices are announced, signaling concern about tight availabilities during the transition into new crop.

Current EUR Price Landscape

Recent EUR offers show a mixed but generally firm picture, with Turkey and China defining the core industrial segment and India and Chile setting the premium range. Slight week-on-week softening in some lines contrasts with strong expectations from Turkish growers, who see official support prices as likely to lift replacement costs into the new season.

*Average of the most recent golden New Delhi offers.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

From September 2024 to mid-June 2025, Turkey exported about 124,400 tons of raisins at an average price near 3,565 USD/ton. In the current marketing year through mid-June 2026, export volume is down to around 110,600 tons, and the average price has slipped to about 3,354 USD/ton, suggesting softer demand or increased competition earlier in the season.

Weekly data show a recent rebound in shipments: early June 2026 exports reached about 3,390 tons versus roughly 2,030 tons in the same week a year earlier, though at a much lower average price (around 2,947 USD/ton versus 3,597 USD/ton). This points to buyers returning to the market on dips, even as fundamentals tighten on the farm side in Turkey.

On the supply side, farmers—except those in financial need—are largely unwilling to sell at current prices, preferring to wait for clarity on TMO intervention and new-crop yields. Exporters are therefore pushing to secure remaining old-crop stocks ahead of any official announcement, transferring some bargaining power to growers and increasing the likelihood of a price step-up once TMO levels are confirmed.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Key Turkish raisin regions around Manisa currently face seasonally warm to hot weather, with June temperatures trending in the high 20s to mid‑30s °C according to recent regional forecasts and climate data. So far, there are no acute reports of adverse weather events such as widespread hail or extreme heat that would materially threaten the developing crop in the short term.

Earlier in the spring, much of western Turkey experienced cooler and wetter than usual conditions, which have supported good soil moisture and vineyard vigour. If hot and dry conditions intensify later in summer without adequate irrigation, quality and berry size could come under pressure; however, for now the weather backdrop is broadly constructive for a normal to slightly above-average crop.

Risks & Key Watchpoints

• TMO purchasing policy: Confirmation of a 100,000‑ton intervention and actual purchase prices for grade 8 and 9 raisins will define the new floor for Turkish farm-gate and export prices.
• Farmer selling behaviour: Persistent withholding of stock can deepen the nearby tightness and accelerate price increases once official support prices are public.
• Currency and inflation in Turkey: Any further TRY depreciation could partially offset high nominal TRY support prices in EUR terms, although domestic inflation may limit downside to farm-gate levels.
• Weather into July–August: Heatwaves or late storms in Manisa and neighbouring regions could impact quality and final exportable volumes.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Importers / industrial users: The combination of farmer holding and expected higher TMO prices argues for pre‑emptive coverage of at least 2–3 months of needs at current EUR levels, especially for Turkish type 9 and 10 sultanas.
• Distributors: Consider building limited additional stocks in standard grades while selectively using cheaper Chinese and Indian origins to average down costs before new-crop Turkish offers re‑price higher.
• Producers / farmers: Unless liquidity is needed, maintaining a cautious selling pace until TMO intervention details are known appears justified, but price spikes should be used to gradually scale out risk.

Over the next three trading days, Turkish FOB and CIF raisins are likely to remain firm to mildly higher in EUR, with potential for quick upside if new rumours on TMO levels surface. Competing origins (China, India, Chile) are expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer, tracking Turkish sentiment and FX but still offering some relative value versus expected new Turkish season levels.