Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Hot, Dry Weather Dominates Malatya

Turkish raisin prices are steady at the start of July, with no change in export offers from Malatya and a mildly firmer tone in European wholesale markets. Very hot, dry weather in key Turkish growing areas supports quality prospects for now, but keeps attention on water stress and the coming crop size. Across the broader dried-fruit space, demand in Europe remains resilient, with brown dried raisins trading above EUR 8.5/kg on Rungis wholesale this week, underlining the strong downstream price environment even as origin offers in Türkiye move sideways. Malatya and Aegean growers are entering the critical phase for vine growth under a hot continental pattern, while market participants watch reference prices on Turkish exchanges and export bulletins for any early indication of a 2026/27 crop shift.

Prices

Indicative Turkish-origin prices (converted to EUR at ~1.07 USD/EUR) show Malatya sultana raisins holding flat versus late June:

European wholesale prices for brown dried raisins in Rungis are reported around EUR 8.65/kg as of 29–30 June 2026, reflecting retail/foodservice margins rather than origin values but confirming a firm end-market backdrop. Recent references from Izmir’s sultana spot board and Turkish export bulletins show no abrupt moves in seedless-raisins reference prices at the end of June, in line with the stable Malatya export indications.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, there have been no fresh official announcements on a major revision to Turkey’s 2026/27 dried-grape crop in the last three days. Export-focused commentary still highlights that the industry is recovering from earlier frost- and climate-related stresses in recent years, but current-season expectations remain broadly balanced rather than sharply tight.

Domestic Turkish fresh-fruit markets are currently focused on cherries and table grapes, with strong prices for export-quality cherries indicating healthy export demand and logistical flows from key fruit regions. While this does not directly change raisin inventories, it underlines robust overseas interest in Turkish fruit, which indirectly supports bargaining power for dried-fruit exporters as negotiations for new sultana contracts start.

In Europe, wholesale listings such as Rungis and online B2B platforms confirm that dried grapes remain well represented and trade at elevated price points compared with many other dried fruits. Combined with Turkey’s continued competitiveness in dried fruit versus Western European production, this keeps a floor under Turkish raisin export values in the near term.

Weather & Crop Conditions – Malatya Focus

For the next three days (2–4 July 2026), Malatya is forecast to see hot, dry and sunny weather, with daytime highs around 35–36°C and lows near 20–22°C, and no significant precipitation expected. This pattern is favourable for vegetative growth and disease control in vineyards at this stage, supporting good quality potential.

However, persistently high temperatures raise concerns about soil moisture depletion and possible water-stress later in the season, especially in vineyards with limited irrigation. Given the climate-related vulnerability of Türkiye’s dried-fruit sector highlighted in recent industry analyses, traders are likely to monitor any shift toward heatwaves or rainfall deficits closely, as these could quickly feed into higher risk premiums in new-crop pricing.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Origin prices steady: Malatya FOB and CIF offers for conventional and organic sultanas are unchanged versus late June, pointing to a broadly balanced short-term market at origin.
• European demand resilient: Firm wholesale values in France and stable presence in EU dried-fruit assortments suggest no demand shock; instead, buyers appear to accept higher downstream prices.
• Competitive landscape: Recent cross-origin comparisons still describe Türkiye as price-competitive against many Western producers, though competition from lower-priced origins (e.g. parts of Asia or South America) remains a cap on aggressive upside.
• Regulatory and quality focus: International trade commentary has recently highlighted residue and quality controls on dried grapes; while not new this week, this remains a structural factor that can differentiate Turkish exporters with strong compliance records.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers: With Turkish origin prices sideways and weather supportive but hot, this is a window to secure nearby and early new-crop coverage at current levels, particularly for high-demand grades such as type 9 and organic, before any weather-driven premium emerges.
• For sellers/exporters: Given firm downstream prices in Europe, there is limited incentive to discount. Maintaining current offers while selectively rewarding volume or long-term contracts with small concessions appears optimal.
• For traders: Watch Malatya and Aegean weather indicators and Turkish exchange reference prices closely; any confirmed heat-stress or yield concern could justify a modest bullish positioning in 2026/27 sultana contracts.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Malatya, Türkiye (FOB/CIF sultanas, all grades): Prices expected to remain stable in EUR terms over the next three days, with a very slight upside bias if hot, dry weather persists without relief.
• Northwest Europe Hubs (FCA, e.g. Dordrecht, Hamburg): Turkish and Chinese-origin raisins likely to trade sideways to marginally firmer in EUR, tracking steady demand and still-elevated logistics and energy costs.
• EU Wholesale Markets (e.g. Rungis): Retail/foodservice-level raisin prices anticipated to stay firm at high-single-digit EUR/kg, with no immediate signs of discounting in early July.