Raisin Prices Edge Higher on Tight Indian Supply and Firm Turkish Sultanas
Concise June 2026 raisin market update: prices edge higher on tighter Indian and Turkish supply, steady EU demand and stable weather in AF, CL, CN, IN, TR.
Prices
All prices converted approximately from USD to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR for comparability.
India’s AA grades show the clearest upward momentum, in line with strong domestic dry‑grapes prices in Maharashtra mandis where average wholesale levels around mid‑June are reported at roughly INR 314/kg (≈ 3.5 EUR/kg retail-equivalent), signaling robust demand along the value chain. Turkish and Chinese industrial grades into Europe are consolidating earlier gains but remain competitively priced versus Indian product in euro terms.
Supply & Demand
Recent global industry forecasts indicate that the 2025/26 raisin crop is tightening in several key origins. India’s production is projected sharply lower year-on-year (160,000 tonnes versus 245,000 tonnes in 2024/25), while Türkiye is also expected to see a smaller crop (165,000 versus 226,239 tonnes). At the same time, stocks in China, South Africa and Chile remain comfortable, avoiding an outright shortage.
Afghanistan’s raisin output is projected to rise to about 20,000 tonnes in 2025/26, up from 12,000 tonnes, improving export availability from Central Asia. However, this is from a relatively small base and mainly affects feed and mid‑grade segments into Pakistan, India and the EU. Globally, 2025/26 total supply is forecast lower than 2024/25 but still above long‑term averages, which explains today’s firm but not explosive price action.
On the demand side, retail price lists for dried fruits in India show generally resilient consumer demand despite higher prices across the dry-fruit basket in June 2026. In Europe, steady bakery and confectionery usage continues, and there are no major demand shocks reported in the last few days.
Weather Watch: AF, CL, CN, IN, TR
Afghanistan (AF): Seasonal monitoring up to early June points to mostly below-average cumulative precipitation since October 2025 but with localized normal to slightly above‑normal rains, and generally favorable conditions for vines in northern basins. No acute weather stress has been reported for raisin-growing areas in the last few days, so short-term supply expectations remain stable.
India (IN): Raisin grapes in Maharashtra have largely passed the critical flowering and drying periods; current firmness in dry-grapes mandis is driven more by structural supply tightness than immediate weather. Near-term monsoon patterns will matter more for next season’s grape set than for existing raisin stocks, so they are not expected to impact prices in the coming three days.
China (CN): Xinjiang, the key raisin region, is entering its hot, dry early-summer pattern, with June conditions typically warm to hot and arid in Turpan and Urumqi. No new weather disruptions have been reported within the last three days that would affect the current marketing season, and Chinese supply to Europe continues normally via Hamburg and Dutch hubs.
Chile (CL): Raisin exports from Chile continue out of the tail end of the 2026 harvest. No fresh reports in the last three days indicate any new weather damage beyond earlier-in-the-season issues already reflected in crop forecasts. The current firm FCA NL prices for flame jumbo suggest exporters have little pressure to discount.
Türkiye (TR): In core sultana regions such as Manisa and Malatya, seasonal June weather has been largely typical for the period, with long sunshine hours and no reports of widespread frost or hail events over the last few days. As a result, forward expectations for the 2026 drying season have not shifted in the very short term, supporting the current stable FOB price structure.
Fundamentals & Short-Term Outlook
- Stocks vs. new crop: Lower projected 2025/26 production in India and Türkiye is tightening forward balances, but global stocks and solid output in China, South Africa and Chile keep physical availability comfortable for now.
- Currency & freight: Stable freight rates and relatively calm FX in TRY and INR over the last few days mean that recent price moves are mostly supply-demand driven rather than logistics or currency shocks (no major new freight disruptions reported within the last three days).
- Demand signals: Firm retail dry-fruit prices in India and steady EU industrial offtake suggest consumption is holding up despite recent price increases, reinforcing a mildly bullish tone.
Trading Recommendations (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Indian buyers/exporters: Consider locking in a portion of black and brown AA requirements at current levels; the tight Indian crop and strong domestic demand argue for limited downside in the short term.
- European importers: For standard bakery-grade sultanas, diversify between Turkish, Chinese and Afghan origins to balance quality and price; current offers suggest some relative value in Chinese sultanas ex-Hamburg.
- Premium segment users: Chilean flame jumbo and Turkish organic type 9 remain at a premium; buy hand-to-mouth unless you have confirmed contract coverage, as there is no immediate weather threat justifying aggressive forward coverage.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- India (FOB/FCA New Delhi AA grades): Mildly firmer bias over the next three days, supported by strong domestic dry-grapes prices and tighter 2025/26 supply.
- Türkiye (FOB Malatya/Izmir sultanas): Sideways to slightly firmer; no fresh weather shocks, but structurally smaller 2025/26 crop and steady EU demand keep offers supported.
- China (FCA Hamburg / NL hubs): Mostly stable; good availability from Xinjiang should cap near-term upside, though small increases are possible if Indian and Turkish offers continue to edge higher.
- Chile (FCA NL): Slightly firmer tone for flame jumbo due to limited late-season availability and stable European demand.
- Afghanistan (FCA NL feed/mid grades): Stable to marginally firmer, tracking the broader upward drift in the raisin complex but cushioned by rising export availability.