Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Weather Stays Favourable but Freight Costs Climb
Concise June 2026 update on Turkish raisin prices, supply, weather in Malatya and rising freight costs, plus 3‑day outlook and trading guidance.
Prices
All prices converted at an indicative rate of 1.00 USD = 0.93 EUR for comparability.
Turkish sultana prices in Malatya are unchanged week on week, following a sharp adjustment earlier in June on grade 9 FOB levels. Chinese RTU material ex Hamburg has firmed modestly in recent days, narrowing the discount to Turkish origins.
Supply & Demand
Recent dried-fruit market updates from Turkey indicate that sultana vineyards are in very good condition, with no major weather damage reported so far and hail identified as the main outstanding risk. This underpins expectations for a comfortable 2026/27 crop if current conditions persist.
At the same time, demand for sultanas is described as weak, with buyers cautious and in no rush to cover long positions. This is consistent with the current flat price structure and the limited reaction so far to rising freight costs. Turkish dried fruit exports overall remain solid but not exceptional in value terms, with raisins still the leading contributor within the category.
Fundamentals & Logistics
Weather in Malatya over the coming three days is forecast to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with daytime highs around 29–31°C and cool nights near 14–16°C. These conditions are supportive for vine growth and drying potential and pose no immediate threat to the 2026 grape crop.
On the logistics side, container freight rates on Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean routes have risen sharply in June amid an early peak season, capacity management and continued diversions around conflict areas. Industry benchmarks show Asia–Europe spot rates up more than 10% in the last week alone, with Asia–Mediterranean lanes even stronger and both now well above last year’s peaks. While Turkey–EU lanes are not at the epicentre of these hikes, exporters face a more expensive freight environment than earlier this year.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market outlook (next 1–2 weeks)
- With stable weather and weak demand, Turkish FOB raisin prices are likely to remain range-bound in the very near term.
- However, firming global container rates increase the probability of gradual upside in CIF offers into Europe and the Middle East as logistics surcharges filter through.
- Any hail or localised storm damage in key sultana areas would quickly turn sentiment more bullish, but no such events are currently forecast.
Trading recommendations
- Importers: Consider covering Q3 physical needs on Turkish sultanas now while FOB prices are flat, but negotiate freight clauses or split quotations (FOB vs CIF) to manage rising ocean costs.
- Packers in Europe: Compare Turkish offers with Chinese RTU and other origins; the recent uptick in Chinese FCA levels reduces the discount, supporting continued reliance on Turkey for higher-grade product.
- Turkish exporters: Lock in container capacity early for July–August shipments where possible, and factor further freight volatility into offer validity periods.
3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR)
- Malatya, TR – FOB sultanas (all grades): Prices seen stable over the next three days, with a slight upside bias only if freight surcharges intensify suddenly.
- Malatya, TR – CIF key EU ports: Slightly firmer tone expected as higher container benchmarks into Europe and the Mediterranean are progressively reflected in offers.