Tight Farmer Selling and Feed-Grade Import Debate Support Raisin Prices

Raisin prices are holding firm as growers resist low bids amid strong early-June export activity and rising concern over low-quality “minced raisin” imports used as feed. Import policy for scrap raisins is emerging as a key risk factor for both domestic prices and industrial users. Demand for Turkish sultanas remains solid, with 7,200 tons exported in the first half of June alone, while most farmers are unwilling to sell good-quality lots below the psychological 100 TL/kg threshold. At the same time, the sector is pushing regulators to restrict or heavily tax imports of low-quality dried grapes used as animal feed, arguing they undermine the market. New-crop yield prospects will only become clearer around mid‑August, keeping a weather and policy risk premium in the market.

Prices

Domestic farmer indications in Turkey show Grade 8 raisins trading around 85 TL/kg and Grade 9 around 95 TL/kg, yet most growers are holding out for at least 100 TL/kg, effectively tightening spot availability. This grower resistance, set against active export demand, underpins a firm to slightly bullish short-term price tone.

Current export and European indications converted to EUR reinforce this picture of stability at relatively elevated levels. Standard Turkish sultanas, type 9, stand around EUR 2.95/kg FOB Malatya for Grade A product, with RTU material near EUR 2.13/kg CIF. Organic Turkish sultanas Type 9 Grade A hover near EUR 3.10/kg FOB, while Chinese and Indian alternatives mostly price between EUR 1.84–2.60/kg FCA/FOB, highlighting Turkey’s quality premium.

Supply & Demand

Export flows from Turkey are currently robust, with 7,200 tons shipped in the first two weeks of June alone, confirming healthy international demand for sultanas, especially for prompt shipment. Exporters are increasingly competing for limited farmer offers as growers delay sales in expectation of higher levels closer to 100 TL/kg.

On the supply side, the current marketing year is still driven by old-crop stocks, while the new season’s harvest potential will only be known around mid‑August. Until then, uncertainty about yields in the Aegean region and other key vineyards, as well as normal weather risks, will keep producers cautious in their selling and encourage exporters and importers to cover forward needs selectively.

Fundamentals & Policy Debate

A central issue for the Turkish raisin sector is the increasing import of low-quality “minced raisins” that enter under the label of animal feed but are then used in the industrial food sector. Sector representatives, including the leadership of TARİŞ and the Aegean Dried Fruit Exporters Association, have requested a minimum customs duty of 56% on such low-grade dried grapes and ultimately a full ban.

This policy debate is important for price formation. If high tariffs or bans on feed-grade imports are implemented, domestic industrial users would lose access to cheaper inputs, raising their raw material costs and likely supporting prices of food-grade raisins. Conversely, if imports remain relatively unrestricted, feed-grade product can cap domestic prices in lower quality segments, even as high-quality export-oriented grades remain firm.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook

Weather across Turkish grape-growing regions in late June will be closely watched, but yield and quality assessments for the new raisin season are not expected before mid‑August. Until preliminary vineyard surveys are available, market participants will continue to price in a moderate weather risk premium, particularly for higher grades that are more sensitive to any damage.

Given the strong start to exports and reluctance of farmers to sell at current bids, any adverse weather event in July–August could quickly translate into renewed price spikes. Conversely, confirmation of a normal to above-average crop would ease medium-term tightness, though policy decisions on feed-grade imports may still prevent a significant price correction.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Bias remains moderately bullish for Turkish sultanas as farmer selling is restrained and export demand is active. Buyers should consider covering nearby needs, especially for premium grades.
• Medium term (to mid‑August): Prices likely to trade sideways to firmer within a relatively tight range, driven by policy headlines on minced raisin imports and evolving export figures. Upside risk increases if any weather issues emerge in key vineyards.
• Feed- vs food-grade spread: Watch the outcome of lobbying for a 56% customs duty or potential ban on feed-grade imports. A restrictive decision would widen the spread and support all domestic price levels; a status quo would keep industrial-grade prices more contained.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Turkey, FOB Malatya (sultanas type 9, Grade A, EUR): Stable to slightly firmer as exporters seek volume and farmers hold back offers.
• EU, FCA ports (standard sultanas, various origins, EUR): Largely stable; Turkish-origin keeps a premium over Chinese and Indian alternatives.
• Feed-grade raisins, EU FCA (EUR): Stable; any Turkish move on feed-grade import duties would be a key upside trigger.