Raisin Prices Ease Slightly as Hot Weather Looms in China and Turkey

Raisin prices are trading slightly softer overall, with selective firmness in Turkish premium grades, as the market weighs comfortable old-crop availability against rising logistics costs and very hot weather in key growing regions. Spot trading remains thin, but buyers are showing renewed interest in Chinese and Turkish sultanas as freight rates on Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean routes continue to edge higher. With daytime temperatures above 40°C forecast in Turpan and low‑30s°C in Malatya, attention is slowly shifting from old‑crop selling to weather risk for the developing 2026/27 grape harvest.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted and expressed per kg in EUR, using an approximate 1.00 EUR = 1.08 USD rate where needed.

European wholesale quotes for sultana raisins in key hubs like Rungis are around the equivalent of 3.80–4.00 EUR/kg for consumer‑packed product, implying comfortable room for packer margins at current bulk origin prices.

Supply, Demand & Logistics Drivers

Turkey (TR): Export data for dried fruits and nuts show steady volumes into the EU so far this year, with dried vine fruit a key component of the "fruit dried, n.e.s." export basket. Trade contacts report adequate old‑crop sultana inventories in Malatya and the Aegean, keeping standard grades broadly stable, while some packers attempt to lift offers on higher‑quality type 9 material, reflected in the recent jump in Malatya FOB quotes for premium grade A.

China (CN): Xinjiang, including Turpan, is now past the main fresh grape pruning and early vegetative stages. National grain and fruit coverage from mid‑June emphasizes generally favorable harvest prospects in northwest China, with government services focused on securing a good summer crop across key producing regions. For raisins, this translates into no immediate supply shock, but buyers are monitoring heat episodes and potential water constraints during the coming weeks.

Logistics & freight: Container freight indices show a renewed rally on Asia–Europe routes in early to mid‑June, with spot rates reported up more than 20–25% month‑on‑month, pushed by diversions around the Red Sea and an unusually early peak season. Forwarders cite 20-foot China–Turkey containers currently around 1,300–1,800 USD, above early‑year levels, which is starting to pressure CIF price ideas into Mediterranean and Northern European ports.

Weather Watch: CN & TR Raisin Belts

Turkey – Malatya region (TR): The next three days (18–20 June) are forecast mostly sunny and warm, with highs around 31–33°C and lows 15–18°C, and no significant rain. For the developing 2026 grape crop, these conditions are largely favorable, supporting flowering and berry set without immediate heat stress or disease pressure.

China – Turpan (CN): Turpan is entering a pronounced heat spell, with forecast highs between 39–42°C and warm nights above 28–30°C through 20 June. Such heat is typical for the basin but can accelerate vine water demand and, if prolonged into the drying season, lead to smaller berries and more rapid dehydration. For now, irrigation availability will be crucial; any sign of restrictions later this summer could quickly turn into a bullish factor for Chinese raisin prices.

Market Assessment & Short-Term Outlook

Fundamentally, the market is balanced to slightly heavy on old‑crop supply, with no major weather damage reported so far in either Turkey or China. At the same time, freight costs from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean are rising sharply, and main carriers have announced mid‑June and early‑July increases on Asia–Europe lanes that could further lift delivered costs for raisins. This combination tends to cap origin‑side downside but can narrow arbitrage between CN and TR material into EU packers.

Price behavior over the last week reflects this: standard Turkish FOB grades are flat to slightly lower, while premium TR grade‑A and organic sultanas are being marked higher by some sellers; Chinese Hamburg FCA prices have eased from recent highs, likely responding to buyer resistance and competition from Turkey. With no immediate demand shock in Europe and China and only localized heat risks so far, the next decisive driver is likely to be July–August weather in Turpan and Western Anatolia plus the trajectory of ocean freight surcharges.

Trading Recommendations

• EU packers / importers: Use current softness in Chinese FCA and standard Turkish FOB grades to secure Q3 coverage on 30–60 day horizons, but avoid over‑committing into Q4 until there is more clarity on freight surcharges and weather through July.
• Buyers of premium TR grade A & organic: Recent Malatya price hikes suggest tightening availability; consider layering in small additional volumes now to hedge against further firming, especially if hot, dry weather persists into berry growth.
• CN vs TR arbitrage: With freight from China trending higher and CN FCA already discounting back from earlier peaks, spreads versus TR are less compelling; focus on quality differentiation and logistics reliability rather than purely on unit price in EUR/kg.
• Producers / exporters: Given volatile ocean rates, keep offers short‑validity and consider quoting separate freight surcharges so that underlying raisin price levels remain transparent to buyers.

3‑Day Directional Price Outlook (CN & TR)

• Turkey – Malatya FOB/CIF (TR): With stable weather and adequate stocks, standard grades (type 8 and 9 RTU) are likely to remain broadly sideways over the next three days, with only a mild upward bias for premium type 9 and organic lots as packers test higher offers.
• China – Xinjiang/Turpan to EU (CN, Hamburg FCA): Following the recent correction, Chinese sultanas are expected to trade steady to slightly firmer in EUR terms, mainly reflecting higher freight surcharges rather than origin‑side tightening, while buyers watch how the current heat wave evolves.