Raisins market steady as European heatwave raises new weather risks

Raisin prices remain broadly stable across key origins, but the intensifying European heatwave and hot, dry conditions in Turkey add a new layer of weather risk that could tilt the market firmer into Q3. The global dried grape complex trades calmly despite disruptive weather headlines in grains and vineyards. Turkish sultana offers from Malatya, India’s raisin complex and Chinese supply into Europe have shown only marginal moves over the past month, pointing to a well-balanced spot market. However, a persistent heat dome over Western Europe and seasonally hot, dry weather in key Turkish growing areas highlight that weather risk is shifting to the upside into the critical summer period. Buyers currently enjoy stable pricing, but forward coverage strategies should take into account the potential for crop stress and quality issues if heat and dryness extend.

Prices

Raisin prices in EUR remain largely unchanged over June, with only small, grade-specific adjustments. Turkish sultanas from Malatya are stable: Type 9 RTU CIF is around EUR 2.13/kg, while FOB Malatya Type 8 Grade A trades near EUR 2.03/kg and Type 10 Grade A around EUR 2.30/kg. Premium conventional Type 9 Grade A holds close to EUR 2.95/kg, and organic Type 9 near EUR 3.10/kg, showing no recent trend acceleration.

Indian raisins remain competitively priced, with black and brown AA grades mostly between EUR 1.84–1.97/kg FOB/FCA New Delhi, and golden AA around EUR 2.37–2.59/kg. Chinese sultana Type 9 RTU offers into continental Europe (FCA Hamburg/Dordrecht) cluster around EUR 2.10–2.15/kg, after only minor week-on-week adjustments. Overall, the price structure suggests a sideways market with narrow differentials between origins and grades.

Supply & Demand

The dried grape market currently reflects comfortable spot availability. Turkish exporters show steady offer volumes in Malatya across grades, with no sign yet of aggressive pre‑harvest price hikes. Indian supply into the European and Middle Eastern snack and bakery sector remains competitive, cushioning any localised tightness. Chinese sultanas continue to provide an alternative pipeline into Northern European ports, helping to cap upside in standard qualities.

On the demand side, snack and bakery manufacturers in Europe are operating with typical pre‑summer call‑offs, without visible demand spikes or destocking waves. The broader grains complex is being driven by heat- and yield-related concerns in Europe and production downgrades in the Black Sea, but this has not yet translated into substitution effects strong enough to tighten raisins. Nonetheless, higher cereal prices can gradually support dried fruit demand as a relative value ingredient in some formulations.

Weather & External Drivers

Weather is the main emerging risk factor. Western Europe is under a severe heatwave, with temperatures locally exceeding 40°C in France and Spain as a strong heat dome persists over the region. Recent analyses from European agencies highlight back‑to‑back heat episodes from late May into late June, with forecasters warning that a second wave could further stress crops if it extends into early July.

While raisins are primarily supplied by Turkey, Iran, India, the US and Central Asia, prolonged heat across Europe may affect table grape and wine grape yields in France, Spain and Italy, potentially supporting dried grape prices indirectly via tighter overall grape availability. In Turkey’s Malatya region, current forecasts show hot, sunny and mostly dry conditions with daytime highs around 32–36°C and minimal rain over the coming days, typical for the season but with low moisture reserves. Persistent heat without relief later in summer could affect berry size and raise quality‑sorting losses, especially for higher grades.

Fundamentals & Market Signals

Fundamentals point to a finely balanced market. Stocks at origin remain adequate after the last campaign, and no major logistical disruptions are reported along key export routes. Freight and container availability into Europe appear normal, supporting the narrow price spreads between FOB origins and FCA European ports.

However, the broader agri-commodity backdrop is turning more supportive for pricing. In grains, an intense heatwave in Western Europe is already trimming yield expectations, and Russian wheat harvest estimates have been revised down, reinforcing a more bullish tone across cereals. This environment can gradually spill over into dried fruits via higher opportunity costs for land and water and via shifting flows in feed- and food-use ingredients. For now, the flat structure of quoted raisin prices suggests that trade buyers and speculators are waiting for clearer evidence of weather damage before repositioning.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Into the next 4–8 weeks, the base case remains for a broadly sideways raisin market with a modest upside bias if heat and dryness in key producing regions persist. Any confirmation of yield or quality issues in Turkish or Central Asian vineyards would likely first show up in higher premiums for top grades and organic lots, then filter through to standard sultanas. Conversely, a break in the heat pattern with timely rainfall would likely keep prices capped near current levels.

• Food manufacturers (Europe): Extend cover for Q3–Q4 needs on standard Turkish and Indian grades at current levels, prioritising high‑spec and organic sultanas where upside risk is highest.
• Importers/packers: Maintain balanced stocks; consider adding limited length in premium grades as a weather hedge rather than across the board.
• Producers/exporters: Avoid aggressive forward sales on high grades until July weather clarity improves; consider flexible pricing formulas linked to quality outcomes.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR terms)

• Turkish sultanas (FOB/CIF): Stable to slightly firmer; bids and offers tightly ranged.
• Indian raisins (FOB/FCA): Stable; no immediate catalyst for moves in either direction.
• Chinese sultanas into EU (FCA): Stable; acting as a ceiling for standard‑grade prices.