Turkish Raisins Hold Steady as Heat Builds in Malatya

Turkish raisin prices are flat at late-June levels, with Malatya sultana offers unchanged despite a sharp heat spell and ongoing strength in EU wholesale dried-fruit prices. With no major supply shock or policy change emerging in the last few days, the market remains range-bound but supported, especially versus higher-priced EU spot offers. The Turkish seedless grape crop is progressing under very hot, dry conditions, yet cumulative rainfall since autumn has been near normal to slightly below in Malatya, limiting immediate drought worries. Domestic fruit markets and grain interventions dominate local headlines, while raisins trade quietly in the background. EU wholesale prices for dried raisins remain a multiple of Turkish export values, underlining Turkey’s cost advantage. Over the next three days, stable weather, firm global dried fruit demand and rising trade costs for Asian-origin goods into the EU together argue for a mildly supportive to sideways price outlook.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR/kg (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR).

Latest EU wholesale quote for brown dried raisins at a French B2B platform stands at 8.65 EUR/kg as of 1 July 2026, up over 40% on the year, underscoring Turkey’s strong price competitiveness even after logistics and margins.

Supply & Demand

Over the last three days, no fresh official announcements have emerged on Turkish dried grape export policies, intervention buying or crop losses. Local Malatya news has focused instead on TMO’s grain purchasing campaign and stone fruit pricing. For raisins, this silence supports the impression of a broadly balanced supply-demand situation entering mid-summer.

Global industry data published in spring 2026 already pointed to sufficient seedless dried grape supply in Turkey and rival origins, with sultana and raisin prices expected to remain generally stable into 2026 absent extreme weather shocks. That view remains consistent with the flat Malatya export offers and only marginal upticks for Chinese-origin sultanas in Northern European warehouses.

On the demand side, EU consumption of dried fruit is steady while wholesale buyers have turned more cautious after the sharp price run-up in nuts and certain dried fruits over the last year. The very high French wholesale level versus export offers suggests continued margin room for EU packers and retailers rather than immediate pressure to push farmgate prices higher.

Weather & Crop Conditions – Malatya Focus

Short-term weather in Malatya over 2–4 July 2026 is hot and dry, with daytime highs around 35–36°C and clear skies, and nighttime lows near 20–22°C. These conditions favour rapid drying of already formed berries but increase irrigation demand and heat stress risk on exposed vineyards.

Cumulative rainfall data from Türkiye’s meteorological service show Malatya among the provinces with slightly reduced precipitation versus normal this hydrological year, generally within about 20% below average rather than extreme drought. Combined with the current heat wave, this suggests some tightening potential if dry, hot weather persists into August, but there is no immediate evidence of large-scale yield loss in seedless grapes.

Neighbouring fruit sectors (notably fresh and dried apricots) are currently expecting a better 2026 harvest following frost issues in prior years, which points to broadly favourable agro-climatic conditions in the wider region. For raisins, the near-term production outlook therefore remains cautiously positive, with weather a watchpoint rather than an active bullish driver today.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

At the global level, Turkey retains a cost and logistics advantage into Europe versus most competitors, especially for bulk sultanas. Recent EU regulation introduced on 1 July 2026 adds a flat 3 EUR fee to low-value parcels imported directly from China, targeting cheap B2C e-commerce shipments. While this measure is not aimed at bulk food ingredients, it reinforces the broader policy trend of tightening conditions for Chinese-origin flows into the EU.

Market commentary over the past week highlights that Chinese exporters are increasingly using EU warehousing and alternative channels to mitigate these new costs, which may sustain higher landed prices and longer lead times for some Chinese-origin goods. For industrial buyers of raisins, the relative simplicity and tariff-free access of Turkish product under existing EU–Türkiye arrangements remains a structural positive.

Industry intelligence from early 2026 underscores that the sultana/raisin market is moderately concentrated, with Turkish export cooperatives playing a key role in volume and quality management. This institutional structure, combined with a balanced stock position, likely contributes to the current price stability: exporters are under no immediate pressure to discount, but also face no acute shortage that would trigger aggressive hikes.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

3–5 day price bias (region = Türkiye, Malatya-based raisins): sideways to slightly firmer.

• Exporters in Türkiye: With FOB Malatya sultanas stable and EU wholesale levels very elevated, there is room to defend current offer levels over the next few days. Consider holding firm on prices while selectively rewarding large, prompt-shipment inquiries with small discounts rather than cutting lists.
• EU industrial buyers/packers: Turkish sultanas remain highly competitive versus EU wholesale benchmarks. Short-term, covering nearby needs from Turkey rather than spot EU distribution channels is still attractive; use any minor dips from freight or FX moves to top up Q3 positions.
• Traders with CN vs TR optionality: The marginal uptick in Chinese warehouse prices and new EU cost measures on China-origin flows tilt the risk-reward slightly in favour of Turkish origin for EU-destined business in the very near term.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• Malatya FOB/CIF raisins (TR): Stable band expected; bias modestly firm if heat persists and nearby demand improves. No significant downside drivers visible into 5 July.
• EU warehouses (NL/DE) Turkish & Chinese raisins: Mostly stable; minor firming possible on logistical tightness and cost pass-through, but no clear catalyst for sharp moves in the next three days.
• EU wholesale (e.g. Rungis): Prices already high; further upside likely limited in the ultra-short term, with packers focusing on margins rather than additional hikes.