Raisin Market Steady but Weather Risks Build in Key Origins

Raisin export prices across major origins are broadly stable in mid‑June, with a slight firm tone in Indian grades and Turkish and Chinese sultanas mostly flat in euro terms. Competitive offers from India are capping upside for higher‑priced Turkish material, while logistical and macro risks in Afghanistan and weather stress in some Southern Hemisphere grape regions are emerging watchpoints for the 2026/27 campaign. Spot trade remains orderly, with limited aggressive buying as many packers report comfortable nearby coverage. In India, a smaller 2025/26 seedless grape crop after adverse weather has tightened top grades but has not yet triggered a sharp rally thanks to still ample stocks and weaker export grape flows. In Türkiye, farmers are focused on cereals and general input costs, but no major shock has hit the dried grape balance so far. China and Chile are in their off‑harvest phase, with attention turning to how summer heat patterns may affect vine conditions for next season.

Prices & Spreads (all in EUR, indicative)

Using a working FX assumption of 1.00 USD = 0.93 EUR, current offers imply the following export‑oriented price levels:

Supply & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

Export grapes from Nashik fell nearly 10% in the 2025‑26 season due to unseasonal rains and hail, which reduced export‑grade output and compressed the harvest window. This has indirectly tightened top‑quality raisin raws, explaining the mild firming in Indian AA raisins. However, strong international demand for fresh grapes still absorbed much of the crop, limiting surplus but also preventing a severe shortage.

On the demand side, steady inquiries from the Middle East and Asia continue, yet buyers appear price‑sensitive, often comparing Indian offers against more expensive Turkish sultanas. With India’s seedless grape production for 2025/26 estimated lower than the prior year in global dried grape statistics, near‑term upside in Indian raisins looks capped by competition rather than by a lack of volume.

Türkiye (TR)

Türkiye remains the largest single exporter of seedless raisins, but 2025/26 production is projected significantly below the previous year, tightening the global balance sheet. While this structural reduction supports a premium over Indian and Chinese offers, current pricing is constrained by farmer focus on grains and the government’s stance on support prices, rather than by any acute weather shock in June.

Recent Turkish agricultural commentary has centered on dissatisfaction with official grain prices and broader farm margins, which could lead some growers to push for higher returns from specialty crops such as dried grapes later in the year. For now, exporter inventories and sluggish European demand are keeping Malatya‑based sultana offers largely unchanged week‑on‑week.

China (CN)

China’s 2025/26 raisin production is forecast sharply higher year‑on‑year, driven mainly by Xinjiang. This added supply underpins the relatively competitive FCA Hamburg and Dordrecht offers for Chinese sultanas, which are trading at a small discount to Turkish RTU product.

Weather‑wise, early‑summer conditions nationally are seasonally warm to hot with localized heavy showers but no major national‑scale shock to grape regions reported in the last few days. This keeps the forward risk profile neutral for now, though any prolonged heat spike in inland basins later this summer would need monitoring for the 2026/27 crop.

Chile (CL)

In the Southern Hemisphere, Chile’s 2026 grape season has been exposed to episodes of extreme heat, which viticulture experts warn can reduce yields and affect berry size and color. While this commentary is focused on wine grapes, similar stress on table‑grape blocks used for raisins cannot be ruled out.

Current flame jumbo raisin offers into the EU, however, are stable, suggesting exporters still feel adequately covered with 2026 product. If repeated heatwaves persist into the next cycle, the 2027 Chilean raisin balance could tighten, potentially widening the premium for large‑size jumbos over standard sultanas.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan remains a small but important supplier of low‑ to mid‑grade raisins, especially into regional and feed channels. Latest humanitarian trade analysis notes that cross‑border disruptions with Pakistan and broader regional tensions are posing risks to Afghan export flows and logistics.

Despite these challenges, FCA offers for Afghan feed‑grade raisins in the Netherlands have inched up only modestly, indicating that European buyers still view this origin as a cost‑effective blender. Any further tightening of transit through Pakistan would, however, quickly translate into higher delivered prices in EU hubs.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

• Global balance: International dried grape council data point to lower 2025/26 production in Türkiye and India but higher output in China and Chile, leaving world supply somewhat tighter but not critically short.
• Demand: Snack and bakery demand in Europe is steady but not booming; macro pressure and high energy costs keep formulators focused on cost‑effective blends rather than volume expansion.

Short‑term weather signals (next 1–2 weeks)

• India (IN, Nashik & Maharashtra): Transition into monsoon with scattered showers and warm temperatures is ongoing; no extreme events flagged in the last 72 hours beyond typical seasonal rainfall, after earlier‑season weather already cut export grapes.
• Türkiye (TR, Aegean & Malatya): Reports focus on cereals and general farm economics rather than weather stress; June conditions are seasonally warm to hot with no fresh, large‑scale damage reports to vineyards in the latest Turkish farm news.
• China (CN, Xinjiang): Early‑summer temperatures trending warm with long daylight; climatology and recent travel/weather reports highlight hot but manageable June conditions, with extreme heat more likely later in summer.
• Chile (CL, central valleys): Analyses of the 2026 Southern Hemisphere summer point to episodes of extreme heat affecting grape physiology and yield potential, suggesting a need for close monitoring of carry‑over and new‑season sizing.
• Afghanistan (AF): Seasonal monitors emphasize generally dry early‑summer conditions after below‑average precipitation in many regions, without acute flooding or frost issues now.

3‑Day Price Outlook (Direction by Region)

Given the absence of major new weather or policy shocks in the last three days and comfortable near‑term stocks, raisin prices are expected to remain directionally stable into the next 72 hours.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buy‑side (importers/packers): For nearby Q3 needs, consider layering in coverage on Indian AA and Chinese sultanas at current flat levels; downside appears limited given tighter Indian and Turkish crops, but short‑run demand is not strong enough to justify chasing the market.
• Origin‑side (growers/exporters): Turkish and Afghan sellers should watch currency and regional logistics; small upward adjustments may be achievable later in Q3 if heat or trade disruptions intensify, but immediate hikes risk losing share to India and China.
• Blenders and industrial users: Maintain flexibility in specifications to substitute towards Chinese and Afghan material in lower‑tier mixes, protecting margins while keeping some exposure to premium Turkish and Chilean product for quality‑sensitive lines.