Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Warm, Dry Weather Supports Crop Prospects

Turkish raisin prices are currently stable in a narrow range, with Malatya FOB offers for conventional sultanas type 8–10 broadly unchanged week‑on‑week despite rising freight and fuel surcharges on Europe‑bound shipments. Short‑term price risks are slightly tilted to the upside from logistics costs rather than local supply stress. Raisin trade flows remain underpinned by Turkey’s strong export orientation, while early shipping‑peak season and higher fuel surcharges are pushing up container and truck logistics costs on key Turkey–Europe lanes. At the same time, weather in Malatya over the next three days is warm and dry, supportive for vine development and drying prospects, with no immediate threat to the 2026/27 crop. Against this backdrop, buyers see little near‑term downside in Turkish raisin prices, but also limited room for sharp gains unless freight markets spike again or new crop concerns emerge.

Prices & Differentials

All prices converted at an indicative 1 USD = 0.93 EUR for comparison; underlying offers are typically quoted in USD.

• Turkish FOB sultanas remain competitively priced versus Chinese and Chilean product in Northwest Europe, with roughly EUR 0.50–0.70/kg premium built into FCA Dordrecht stocks for Turkish RTU over Malatya FOB plus freight.
• Imported Chinese standard sultanas in Germany and the Netherlands trade at a discount to Turkish product, but recent small price increases and elevated freight reduce that gap slightly.
• Domestic Turkish wholesale quotes for fresh sweet cherries and other fruits show firm levels, but there is no direct spillover into dried vine fruit prices yet; raisins remain driven more by export parity and FX than by domestic fresh‑fruit dynamics.

Supply, Weather & Logistics

Turkey stays the key global sultana supplier, with exports drawing from stored inventory while 2026 crop development continues. Sector commentary still points to adequate global raisin availability for 2025/26, with only moderate stock tightening.

• Weather in Malatya (11–13 June): Forecasts show mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs around 29–31°C and mild nights (15–17°C), ideal for vine growth and later drying. No rain or frost risk is indicated in the next three days.
• Domestic farm margins: Higher Turkish cereal support prices announced in early June improve overall farm cash flow but do not yet appear to be triggering a strong shift away from vines into grains in established raisin areas.
• Freight & fuel costs: Container rates on Turkey–Europe lanes are mixed but generally elevated, with some routes from Turkish ports to North Europe down week‑on‑week, while others show double‑digit increases.
• Regulatory surcharges: Major carriers such as MSC have announced higher Emergency Fuel Surcharges on intra‑Europe and Turkey trades from 1 July 2026, which will raise delivered costs for European buyers of Turkish raisins.
• Global freight backdrop: Freightos updates highlight sharply rising container spot rates, especially on Asia–US and Asia–Europe routes, as fuel and geopolitical risks feed into peak‑season demand.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Export orientation: Turkey’s raisin industry remains strongly export‑driven, with stable overseas demand underpinning prices even when domestic consumption is relatively subdued.
• Stocks and competition: Recent industry data still suggest comfortable global raisin stocks, though cheaper origins (notably China) have gained share in some price‑sensitive markets. This caps upside for Turkish offers unless quality differentials widen.
• Energy & shipping regulation: EU maritime carbon rules and higher fuel costs are structurally lifting logistics expenses into Europe, gradually increasing the floor under CIF/FCA raisin prices even when farm‑gate values are stable.
• Macro environment: Broader Turkish agri exports (nuts, dried fruits) continue to perform well, supporting local processing capacity and competition for raw material, but there is no sign yet of acute supply tightness specific to raisins.

Short‑Term Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Baseline: Stable to slightly firmer Turkish FOB raisin prices, with any near‑term increases driven more by freight and surcharges than by field‑level supply shocks.
• Upside risks: Further spikes in container spot rates and fuel surcharges, or a sudden downgrade in 2026 crop expectations, could push FOB and CIF offers modestly higher.
• Downside risks: A brief pause in freight increases or aggressive pricing from competing origins (China, India) into Europe could narrow Turkish premiums and limit exporters’ ability to raise offers.

Trading Recommendations

• European industrial buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now at current Turkish FOB levels, but negotiate hard on freight components and surcharges ahead of the 1 July hikes.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with warm, benign weather and stable demand, a small risk premium for logistics is justified but large headline price hikes could lose volume to Chinese and Indian origins.
• Spot traders in EU hubs: Existing FCA Turkish stocks in Northwest Europe look moderately attractive versus replacement costs that will incorporate higher surcharges from July; short‑term roll‑over into nearby demand appears reasonable.

3‑Day Directional Price View (TR Focus)

• Malatya, TR – FOB sultanas type 8–10, conventional: Sideways; weather benign and no fresh crop news expected in the next three days to move offers.
• Malatya, TR – Organic sultanas type 9: Sideways to slightly firm; niche demand and limited certified supply justify a persistent premium, but no immediate catalyst for a jump.
• Northwest Europe (NL/DE) – FCA Turkish RTU raisins: Sideways with mild upward bias, reflecting firm freight and surcharges rather than origin‑price movement.