Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Turkish Sultanas Rebound and Indian Malayar Edges Up
Concise raisin market report: Turkish sultana prices hold firm, Indian Malayar edges up, with supportive weather in Türkiye and India and tight global stocks.
Prices
All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.
Turkish sultanas continue to trade at a noticeable premium to Indian Malayar feed-grade product, reflecting higher quality and strong demand from Europe, where Türkiye remains a key dried grape supplier despite several years of weather-affected crops.
Supply & Demand
Global raisin supply in 2025/26 is structurally tighter than the previous season, with both Türkiye and India expected to harvest smaller crops versus 2024/25, according to recent international dried fruit industry assessments. This underpins current price resilience even as export demand from Europe and other key markets remains steady.
In Türkiye, government and industry communications around Malatya’s stone-fruit sector emphasize a return to more normal volumes after last year’s severe frost, especially in apricots. While this relates primarily to apricots rather than grapes, it signals that orchards in the region are broadly recovering, easing extreme scarcity concerns for sun-dried products. For raisins, buyers still assume disciplined grower selling after multiple below-average sultana crops, keeping offers firm.
In India, Nashik and other Maharashtra grape belts remain deeply integrated into export channels, with raisins a key value-added outlet. The new India–EU FTA concluded in January 2026 is expected to progressively improve EU market access for Indian processed foods, including dried fruit, by lowering tariffs and narrowing the gap to competitors like Türkiye. This medium-term demand tailwind is likely contributing to the steady floor under Indian raisin prices.
Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, TR)
Türkiye – Malatya and key sultana areas
Recent and short-term weather forecasts for Malatya show hot, mostly clear conditions with daytime highs in the mid‑30s °C and very low precipitation probabilities through at least the next 3–5 days. Relative humidity remains low during the afternoon, which is beneficial for drying and minimizes disease pressure on vineyards.
No new official alerts regarding hail or frost have been issued for Malatya in the last few days, and earlier-season hail episodes date back to late April. Overall, current weather is neutral-to-supportive for raisin grapes and sun-drying, suggesting no immediate supply shock from Türkiye. This supports the view that the latest upward repricing in some Turkish sultana grades is driven more by tight inventories and grower pricing power than by fresh weather damage.
India – Maharashtra and other raisin belts
Across Maharashtra, including Nashik and central grape regions, the monsoon pattern in mid- to late July shows typical showers and thunderstorms rather than extreme flooding, with recent local observations indicating that heavy rainfall episodes earlier in the month have eased. While field-level weather is heterogeneous, there are no credible, very recent reports of large-scale damage to raisin grapes.
Normal monsoon moisture is broadly favourable for vine growth but can complicate on-ground drying if rains coincide with harvest or early drying stages later in the season. For now, however, the balance of evidence points to a broadly stable Indian production outlook. In this context, the small but steady uptick in Malayar feed-grade prices appears more related to local demand and currency factors than to immediate weather-related supply loss.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Inventory Tightness: International dried fruit data suggest that ending stocks of raisins and sultanas in key producers (including Türkiye and India) are lower in 2025/26 than a year earlier, anchoring prices at elevated levels even as new-crop prospects improve.
- Quality Segmentation: The recent surge in Turkish type 8 sultanas relative to other types indicates specific tightness in that category (likely due to size and quality mix), while organic and top grades remain stable but expensive. This reinforces a wide quality and origin spread versus Indian Malayar feed-grade material.
- Trade Policy Tailwinds: The India–EU FTA, signed in January 2026, is expected to lower tariffs on a wide range of processed foods, indirectly supporting Indian raisin export competitiveness into Europe over time.
- Demand Resilience: Raisins continue to benefit from steady bakery, confectionery, and snack demand in Europe and the Middle East, where Türkiye and India are established suppliers. Recent industry and commodity reports point to stable-tighter conditions rather than oversupply, particularly after several weather-affected campaigns.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indication
Trading Outlook (next 1–3 weeks)
- Turkish sultanas (TR, Malatya): With hot, dry weather and no fresh damage, but structurally tight stocks, expect prices to remain firm. Buyers with nearby needs should consider covering at least part of Q3 requirements before further appreciation in specific grades.
- Indian Malayar (feed grade, IN): The gentle upward drift suggests a firm floor. Short-covering is advisable for feed and low-grade blending uses, but major upside appears limited in the immediate term if monsoon conditions stay normal.
- Origin Spread Strategy: For industrial users, blending more competitively priced Indian material into formulations while maintaining Turkish sultanas for premium segments can mitigate cost risk if Turkish prices tighten further.
3-Day Directional Price View (in EUR terms)
- Türkiye – Malatya sultanas (FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, as sellers test higher offers but buyers resist significant moves in the absence of new weather news.
- India – New Delhi Malayar feed-grade (FOB): Mild upward bias, but daily moves likely confined to very small increments as local traders gauge monsoon progress and export interest.