Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as New Sultana Crop Enters Market

Turkish raisin prices are broadly steady in early September, with Malatya FOB and CIF sultana offers unchanged in EUR terms despite a newly announced 80 TL/kg advance price from TARIS and ongoing heat in the Aegean vineyards. Strong sunshine is accelerating drying and supporting quality, while the weaker lira cushions exporters and keeps euro-denominated prices in a narrow sideways band. New-season Turkish sultana supply is now flowing from Manisa and surrounding Aegean districts, where harvest was delayed by 10–15 days but is progressing under hot, dry conditions that favour raisin production. Processors are focused on drying and sorting first crop volumes, while domestic attention centres on the 80 TL/kg base price and the still-pending official intervention level from TMO. For now, export quotations in EUR remain stable across Malatya and EU warehouses, and buyers are cautiously replenishing nearby coverage rather than chasing the market.

Prices

All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR using an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 56 TRY based on recent ECB reference data for early September 2026.

These levels are consistent with external market commentary citing Turkish FOB sultanas type 8–10 around EUR 2.15–2.40/kg with a flat short-term outlook. The recent TARIS 80 TL/kg advance sets a local producer reference but has not yet translated into material downward pressure in euro offers.

Supply & Demand

The 2026/27 Sultani seedless grape season is underway in Manisa, which accounts for the majority of Türkiye’s raisin-oriented vineyards. Local authorities confirmed that cutting and export for table Sultaniye began in mid-August, signalling sufficient ripeness for drying grapes as well. Harvest this year started 10–15 days later than usual, mainly due to earlier cool nights, but high sunshine hours are now supporting a rapid transition into the drying phase.

Grower and trade reports highlight mixed yield signals: cluster numbers are good, yet berry development is weaker, suggesting normal to slightly below-normal raisin tonnage but generally solid availability compared with the weather-hit 2025/26 season. Export flows are ramping up from the Aegean, while EU demand remains steady but price-sensitive after last season’s elevated Turkish offers versus Iran, India and China. Buyers are spreading coverage, avoiding heavy forward commitments until the full scale of the crop and official intervention prices from TMO become clearer.

Fundamentals & Policy

TARIS has set an 80 TL/kg (≈ EUR 1.43/kg) preliminary purchase price for 2026/27, applicable across sizes, with physical intakes scheduled from 10 September. This level is below current export parity in EUR terms and is viewed by many growers as disappointing, but it provides a floor in lira and may temper aggressive farmgate selling until TMO announces its own intervention price. Market participants are closely monitoring whether TMO will follow, exceed, or ignore this benchmark.

In EUR terms, the impact of the 80 TL/kg advance is softened by the continued weakness of the Turkish lira, which has hovered around 55–56 TRY per EUR in late August and early September. This FX backdrop allows exporters to maintain stable euro-denominated offers while still paying acceptable lira prices to growers. Domestic spot quotations on Turkish exchanges like İzmir Commodities for seedless grapes and early dried product also point to a broadly balanced market without strong upward momentum.

Weather & Quality Outlook (TR)

The short-term weather outlook for Malatya (4–6 September) is very favourable for drying: clear skies, no rain and daytime highs around 31–34°C with lows near 18–19°C. These conditions accelerate moisture loss and reduce mould risk, supporting good physical quality for sultanas and limiting post-harvest losses.

Earlier in the season, heatwaves in the Aegean caused tip burn and stress that slightly reduced yield potential, but they now support rapid drying, particularly for late-harvested parcels. If the current dry pattern persists through mid-September, the market is likely to perceive quality as a net positive, putting more emphasis on policy and FX than on weather risk in price formation.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect Turkish sultana prices to move sideways in EUR, with FOB Malatya type 8–10 holding roughly in the EUR 2.15–2.40/kg band. New supply and the 80 TL/kg base price are largely priced in, while favourable weather caps upside.
• Buyers: Consider covering nearby Q4 needs at current levels, especially for standard type 9–10, while keeping some volume open in case sentiment softens once TARIS and TMO purchase programmes are fully operational.
• Sellers: With a weak lira and good weather support, avoiding heavy discounting below current export parity in EUR seems justified. However, be prepared for modest pressure if international demand proves more price-sensitive after last year’s high Turkish premiums.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (TR & Key Hubs)

• Malatya FOB/CIF sultanas (TR): Stable in EUR; tight daily range around current quotes, bias slightly softer in TRY terms if lira weakens further.
• EU warehouses (NL, DE) – Turkish sultanas: Stable to marginally softer as more new-crop volumes arrive; no clear sign of a sharp correction.
• Competing origins (IN, CN) to EU: Little immediate impact on Turkish offers; different quality profile but acting as a ceiling on any attempted price hikes.