Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Hot, Dry Weather Supports Quality in Key Origins

Raisin prices across major export origins are broadly stable in mid-July, with only minor grade- and origin-specific spreads and no clear directional breakout expected over the next few days. Very hot, mostly dry weather in Xinjiang and seasonally warm, dry conditions in Turkey and Chile are broadly supportive for quality and supply, while India remains calm on both pricing and fundamentals. Spot trading is thin as buyers wait for more clarity on the 2026/27 crop size, especially in Turkey and China. Current offers show a relatively tight band for mainstream sultanas and Malayar/feed grades across India, Turkey, and African origins. Weather in Xinjiang’s Turpan basin – China’s core green raisin area – is extremely hot but largely dry, favoring drying conditions and reducing immediate weather risk for vineyards. With no fresh supply shocks or trade flow disruptions emerging in the last days, the market bias for the coming week is sideways with modest downside only in lower-grade segments.

Prices

All prices converted from USD to EUR at an indicative 1.00 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR for comparability. Levels are indicative spot offers, not benchmarks.

• Grade spreads remain pronounced: Turkish and Chilean premium types hold a clear premium over Indian and African feed/bulk grades.
• No significant week‑on‑week moves: most quotes are unchanged since early to mid‑July, pointing to balanced fundamentals.

Supply & Demand Drivers (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

Africa (AF)

Prices for African brown feed raisins ex-Europe remain flat, with no fresh news of crop issues or logistics disruptions in the last days. Trade flows into EU feed and pet food channels appear steady, and buyers are not chasing volumes.

Given stable alternative feed ingredient prices and sufficient supply of off‑grade material globally, African feed raisins are likely to remain a price follower to Indian Malayar and Turkish off‑grades over the very short term.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s flame jumbo offers ex‑Dordrecht are steady, reflecting a completed harvest and smooth export program. No recent weather or port disruptions have been reported for Chile’s dried fruit export chain over the last three days.

Seasonal offtake from Europe is moderate in mid‑summer, and the premium positioning of Chilean flame jumbos in bakery/snack segments helps protect current price ideas, but also caps volume growth at these levels.

China (CN)

Xinjiang’s Turpan region, which produces over 80% of China’s raisins, is currently under very hot, dry summer conditions. Ten‑day forecasts for Turpan indicate daily highs frequently above 40°C with negligible rainfall, creating excellent natural drying conditions for grapes on drying racks.

These conditions reduce short‑term weather risk for the upcoming raisin campaign and support expectations for solid Chinese supply, especially in green varieties. With no new reports of frost, hail, or flood damage in Xinjiang in recent days, buyers are not pricing in weather risk premiums at present.

India (IN)

Indian raisin prices in New Delhi are largely unchanged over the last week across golden, black, and brown AA grades, with Malayar feed grades also stabilizing after small early‑month gains. This suggests comfortable domestic stocks and a lack of aggressive export demand shifts.

Monsoon progress does not directly threaten existing dried fruit stocks, and there have been no major disruptions to inland logistics cited in recent local updates. India remains a competitive origin for mainstream grades, anchoring the lower end of the global price band.

Turkey (TR)

Turkey’s Aegean sultana belt around Manisa and Malatya continues under seasonally hot, mostly dry summer weather, with no fresh frost or hail headlines in the past three days. Medium‑term commentary earlier in the season highlighted concerns about climate variability, but recent weeks have not added new acute damage reports.

Stocks from the prior crop are adequate but not burdensome, and export demand to the EU is steady rather than booming. This underpins current Turkish sultana prices but leaves little room for immediate upside unless new weather or policy shocks emerge.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (Next 7–10 Days)

• China (Turpan/Xinjiang): Forecasts show persistent extreme heat (>40°C) with almost no precipitation for at least the next 7–10 days, ideal for drying but requiring irrigation vigilance in vineyards.
• Turkey (Aegean/Malatya): Seasonal hot, dry summer conditions dominate; no new severe events reported recently. Irrigation demand is high but manageable at current water availability levels.
• Chile (Central valley): Mid‑winter in the Southern Hemisphere; current weather mainly affects pruning and vineyard preparation, not dried fruit supply already in export channels.
• India (Maharashtra/Karnataka raisin belts): Southwest monsoon activity is ongoing but focused more on field crops; dried stocks are largely under cover, and near‑term supply to export hubs like New Delhi is not weather‑constrained.
• Africa (Southern Africa): No recent reports of major vineyard damage or logistics constraints impacting raisin exports into Europe.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

Trading Recommendations (short term, 3–7 days)

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Use current sideways market to cover near‑term needs in Indian and African feed grades; low probability of a sharp rally in the next week given benign weather and adequate stocks.
• Premium segment buyers: For Turkish sultanas and Chilean flame jumbos, consider incremental coverage on dips rather than chasing prices higher; fundamentals do not yet justify a strong bullish stance.
• Sellers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with no fresh bullish drivers, undercutting for volume risks eroding already narrow origin spreads without securing sustainable demand.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (indicative)

• India (New Delhi, FOB): Golden/black/brown AA and Malayar feed – Sideways in EUR terms; very small intra‑day moves possible but no structural shift expected.
• Africa (AF origin, Dordrecht FCA): Brown feed – Sideways to slightly softer as buyers can substitute with Indian feed grades if needed.
• China (CN origin, Dordrecht FCA): Sultanas no. 9 AA – Sideways; strong upcoming crop prospects cap upside for now.
• Chile (CL origin, Dordrecht FCA): Flame jumbo – Sideways; niche premium segment with limited short‑term volatility.
• Turkey (TR origin, Malatya FOB / Dordrecht FCA): Sultanas – Sideways; watch for any new weather or policy news, but none is priced in for the next 3 days.