Steady Turkish Exports Keep Raisin Prices Range-Bound Ahead of New Crop

Exports are firming and prices are broadly stable in the raisins market, with Turkish sultanas supported by improving weekly shipments and good vineyard progress in Manisa. After a period of subdued trade, the raisin market is entering mid‑July with slightly stronger export activity from Turkey and mostly sideways prices across key grades. Training and coordinated fieldwork in Manisa, Aydın and Denizli are underpinning better yield assessment and crop management in the core sultana belt, while weekly exports around mid‑July show a modest year‑on‑year increase in volume. Weather conditions in Western Turkey look seasonally hot but not yet threatening, suggesting no immediate production shock. Buyers remain cautious but are slowly re‑entering the market ahead of the new crop, keeping the near‑term price outlook broadly stable with a mild upward bias.

Prices

Quoted prices in EUR for Turkish raisins are stable compared with early July, with no change between previous and latest indications. Premium grades still command a clear differential over standard RTU material and organic product remains the high‑priced niche.

Recent spot indications from the Izmir exchange confirm a largely steady sultana market, with buyers described as cautious and in no hurry, which is consistent with flat export offer levels from Turkey.

Supply & Demand

In Western Turkey’s core raisin regions, authorities have intensified training and field‑based yield‑forecasting work, bringing together experts from provincial and district directorates. This reflects a coordinated effort to improve crop assessments and management practices in the Manisa, Aydın and Denizli vineyard belt, which underpins medium‑term supply reliability.

Weekly Turkish raisin exports for the week of 11 July reached 2,730 tons, around 30 tons above the same week last year. This small but clear increase suggests demand is gradually normalizing from key destination markets and that Turkish exporters are successfully positioning themselves as the new crop approaches.

On the demand side, food processing and retail channels remain the primary drivers. Recent global industry analysis points to ongoing structural growth in raisin use across bakery, confectionery and snacks, supporting a solid medium‑term demand base despite short‑term buyer caution.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals in Turkey’s sultana sector are currently balanced. Stocks from the old crop are being drawn down in an orderly fashion, while vineyard conditions in Manisa and surrounding provinces are progressing well ahead of the main harvest window. Public communication from local authorities highlights active pre‑harvest preparation in vineyards, including canopy and bunch management.

Short‑term weather forecasts for Manisa indicate hot but seasonally typical conditions for mid‑July, with daytime highs in the mid‑30s °C and no severe weather warnings. This pattern supports sugar accumulation and berry drying potential without immediate heat‑stress risk, though sustained high temperatures later in July and August will need monitoring for impacts on berry size and quality.

Globally, the latest industry balance sheets still point to adequate but not excessive raisin supply in 2025/26, with Turkey, India and the United States remaining key origins. Production in some competing origins has moderated from earlier peaks, which limits downside pressure on prices and gives Turkey room to maintain current levels if export flows remain healthy.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

With export volumes slightly ahead of last year and vineyards in good shape, the near‑term outlook is for a broadly stable market with a mild upward tilt into the new crop if demand continues to recover. The main risks lie in weather extremes during the ripening and drying period and in potential shifts in currency or freight costs later in the season.

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 needs at current Turkish and Chinese sultana levels, which remain historically competitive, while keeping some flexibility for spot purchases if the new crop proves larger than expected.
• Exporters in Turkey: Use the current stability to secure forward contracts with key clients, emphasizing structured field monitoring and stable quality; avoid aggressive discounting that could undermine values before clearer new‑crop data emerge.
• Traders: Focus on quality and origin spreads (e.g., Turkish vs. Indian vs. Chinese sultanas), as outright price volatility is limited in the very short term but relative value opportunities between grades and origins persist.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Turkey – Malatya (FOB/CIF sultanas): Sideways to slightly firm; no meaningful price moves expected over the next three days.
• EU – Hamburg/Dordrecht (FCA sultanas & mixes): Stable; offers broadly unchanged, with minor bid‑offer negotiation around freight and quality.
• India – New Delhi (FOB/FCA raisins): Slightly firmer tone, especially for golden AA grades, but no sharp rally expected in the immediate term.