Turkish Raisins Hold Steady as Hot, Dry Weather Favors Quality

Turkish raisin prices are flat this week, with Malatya sultana offers unchanged and the market showing a balanced tone between comfortable stocks and seasonally quiet demand. Hot, dry weather in key growing regions supports quality prospects for the new crop, limiting any immediate downside but also capping upside in the absence of fresh demand shocks. Turkish exporters keep quotations stable, signalling that nearby supply is adequate and there is no rush to adjust price lists before clearer information on the 2026/27 crop and export programs emerges. Internationally, Turkey remains a core supplier to the EU dried fruit sector, which is seeing steady import demand without major disruptions. Recent sector comments from Turkish exporters underline an ambition to grow dried-fruit exports this year, but so far this has not translated into visible tightness for sultana raisins. Weather in Malatya is currently favorable for vineyard development, reducing short-term weather risk.

Prices

All Turkish Malatya sultana quotes in the latest data are unchanged compared with the previous week, indicating a stable market. With EUR/Try assumed at roughly 36.5, current raisin offers from Malatya translate as follows:

Domestic Turkish reference prices for seedless sultanas on Izmir Commodity Exchange have also traded sideways in recent sessions, confirming the picture of a range-bound market. Wholesale sultana prices in EU distribution hubs (e.g. Rungis) are significantly higher on a delivered basis, near 3.85 EUR/pack, but have likewise been broadly stable in July.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains a key global raisin and sultana supplier, with a strong export focus on the EU. Recent sector statements from the Turkish dried-fruit exporters’ associations highlight first-half 2026 dried-fruit exports of about USD 752 million, with expectations to reach USD 2 billion by year-end. This ambition implies that exporters will try to protect their share in EU markets with competitive pricing, which helps anchor current offers.

Global raisin supply for 2025/26 is projected slightly lower than the previous year as Turkey, India and Iran all see reduced production compared with 2024/25, according to INC estimates. However, sizeable beginning stocks and diversified origins (USA, South Africa, Chile, Uzbekistan) temper tightness. EU demand is predominantly import-driven and continues to be met from Turkey and other main exporters, with no fresh signals of a demand shock in the last few days.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR)

For Malatya, the 3-day forecast (16–18 July) points to hot, predominantly sunny conditions, with daytime highs around 33–34°C and cool nights near 18–20°C, and no rain expected. Such warm, dry weather is broadly supportive for vine and fruit development, limiting short-term disease pressure and allowing fieldwork to proceed smoothly.

Earlier in the season, localized hail and frost episodes were reported in Malatya, prompting official damage assessments. These events primarily raised concerns for apricots rather than raisins, and there is currently no confirmed widespread damage to vineyard areas. In the core Aegean producing province of Manisa, climatological data also point to typical hot, dry July conditions this year, reinforcing a generally favorable pattern for sultana vineyards.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and export pace: Comfortable carry-in stocks and a steady export rhythm are preventing any squeeze in nearby availability, keeping offer prices stable in Malatya and Izmir.
• Global balance: World raisin/sultana production in 2025/26 is modestly lower year-on-year, but reduced output in Turkey and India is offset by other producers and existing inventories.
• Demand side: EU demand for raisins remains steady, driven mainly by bakery, confectionery and retail snack segments, with no evidence of a sharp acceleration or contraction in July trade data so far.
• Macroeconomic and FX: The weak Turkish lira keeps export offers competitive in EUR terms, giving Turkish suppliers room to maintain or slightly adjust TRY-denominated prices without major visible changes in EUR-based quotes.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (EU/ME importers): With prices stable and weather risk currently low, it is reasonable to cover near-term (Q3–Q4) needs on a hand-to-mouth basis while monitoring any August crop news that could tighten the 2026/27 balance.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Maintaining offer levels appears justified given supportive weather and steady export demand; consider selective discounts only for large-volume or forward contracts to secure market share ahead of new-crop arrivals.
• Industry users: Use the current lull to diversify origin mix (Turkey plus at least one alternative supplier) as insurance against potential later-season weather or logistics disruptions in any single country.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

Based on current offers and the short-term weather and demand outlook, Turkish raisin prices are expected to remain flat over the next three trading days:

• Malatya FOB/CIF (TR sultanas, types 8–10): Sideways, within the current indicative EUR ranges shown in the table above.
• EU Hubs (e.g. Rungis, selected ports): Stable, with delivered wholesale sultana prices broadly unchanged around recent levels near the mid-single-digit EUR/kg range for packed product.