Indian Raisin Prices Edge Higher on Firm Domestic Demand and Steady Imports

Indian raisin prices are ticking moderately higher in mid-July, led by small gains in New Delhi Malayar bird feed and AA grades, while Turkish and Chinese offers in Europe remain broadly steady in euro terms. Weather in India’s key grape and raisin districts is seasonally wet but not extreme, keeping 2026/27 crop prospects stable. Indian trade remains active around Nashik–Sangli and Delhi as monsoon showers ease heat stress without causing serious flood damage so far. IMD and private forecasts point to generally cloudy skies with light to moderate rain around Nashik through 18 July, a supportive backdrop for vineyards if heavy downpours stay limited. Export logistics and demand signals for dry fruits broadly are stable, and no fresh policy shocks for agri exports have emerged in the last few days.

Prices

Note: USD-denominated offers converted at ≈1.07 USD/EUR for comparability. Values are indicative.

Indian Malayar bird feed raisins in New Delhi are showing a clear, if modest, uptrend over early July, signalling steady offtake in the low-grade segment. AA food grades (golden, brown, black) are either flat or edging higher, suggesting that current pricing is being accepted by domestic bakers, snack makers and traders ahead of the festive pipeline. Recent Indian commentary on dry fruit exporting hubs confirms that Nashik/Mumbai and Delhi remain key nodes for consolidation and export to Europe. Turkish sultanas from Malatya and Chinese RTU raisins delivered into Germany and the Netherlands are broadly unchanged over the past week in euro terms, reflecting balanced export demand and no new supply shock. The earlier firmness in premium imported raisins linked to Iran-related shipping disruptions has not significantly escalated in the last few days, but underpins a floor under European and Indian import replacement values.

Supply & Demand

The Indian raisin complex is entering the core monsoon maintenance period, with most grapes already off for drying in key belts such as Nashik and Sangli, and current trade dominated by stock rotation rather than fresh crop arrivals. Sangli raisins continue to benefit from their GI positioning and established processing chain, anchoring supply for brown and golden grades. On the demand side, enquiries from small dry-fruit exporters into Europe and the Middle East remain active, though still selective on quality and compliance. Broader Indian merchandise export data for June show growth across multiple destinations, indicating that the overall trade environment is supportive even as freight to Europe and the Gulf remains elevated compared with early 2026. For raisins, this translates into stable to slightly firmer export interest, particularly for clean AA and RTU grades. Geopolitical risk from the ongoing Iran war continues to affect shipping and payment flows via the Gulf, with documented disruptions in other agri segments such as rice. For raisins, the impact is indirect but relevant: logistics to traditional Middle East buyers can be slower and costlier, making nearby markets (EU, East Africa, South Asia) relatively more attractive and helping to keep Indian and Turkish export offers firm in euro terms.

Weather & Crop Outlook (India)

IMD’s local bulletins for Nashik show generally cloudy skies with light rain and no severe weather warnings through at least 18 July, with maximum temperatures around 30–31°C and minimums near 23°C. Independent 7-day forecasts corroborate this pattern of intermittent light rain and moderate temperatures, while recent local reporting notes that earlier heavy showers and flood concerns have eased. For Sangli and the broader Tasgaon belt, medium-range forecasts point to continued monsoon conditions with scattered showers but no extreme heat. This weather profile is broadly favourable for vine recovery and canopy health after harvest and drying, and it reduces the immediate risk of storage or transit issues linked to excessive humidity, provided warehouses maintain ventilation. Overall, current conditions support a neutral-to-positive outlook for India’s 2026/27 raisin supply.

Short-Term Forecast & Trading Outlook

Price and basis outlook (next 3 days)

• New Delhi (India, FOB/FCA, EUR basis): Spot Malayar bird feed and brown/black AA raisins are likely to remain firm to slightly higher, with an upside of about EUR 0.01–0.03/kg as monsoon-normal weather and steady domestic demand support sellers’ offers.
• Turkish sultanas (Malatya, FOB/CIF, EUR): Prices are expected to stay broadly stable around current levels over the next 3 days, with only minor intra-day adjustments linked to currency fluctuations.
• EU warehouses (Hamburg/Dordrecht, FCA, EUR): Chinese and Turkish RTU and standard sultanas are seen trading sideways, supported by replacement costs and no fresh news on supply or logistics.

Trading recommendations

• Indian buyers (food-grade users): Consider covering near-term requirements for golden and brown AA at current levels; monsoon risks look contained for now, but logistics and geopolitical premiums leave limited downside in EUR terms.
• Indian exporters: Use the current stability in Nashik–Delhi sourcing and firm EUR offers to lock in forward contracts with EU buyers, especially for compliant AA and RTU material where demand is resilient.
• European buyers: Maintain at least normal coverage for Q3–Q4; any renewed escalation in Gulf shipping disruptions could quickly lift Turkish and Indian replacement values from today’s plateau.

3-day directional outlook (EUR terms)

• India – New Delhi raisins (FOB/FCA): Slightly bullish bias; +0–2% expected over the next 3 days.
• Turkey – Malatya sultanas (FOB/CIF): Sideways; 0–1% range-bound movement likely.
• EU – Hamburg/Dordrecht stocks (FCA): Sideways; prices to track replacement costs with a mild upside risk if freight offers tighten suddenly.