Raisin market: Turkish growers push for higher floor as exports rise

Export demand for Turkish raisins is running ahead of last year, but prices are lower, leaving growers squeezed while exporters enjoy competitive advantages. With raw material stuck around 90 TRY/kg and expectations building for a Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention near 160 TRY/kg, the August harvest and policy signals will be decisive for price direction into the new season. The raisin market is entering a critical transition phase. Forecasts for the upcoming Turkish crop are advancing quickly and initial indications point to comfortable export availability, reflected in higher shipped volumes year-on-year. Yet weak farmgate prices are straining producer margins, and market sentiment is increasingly tied to whether Ankara will step in with support. Internationally, indicative offers for Turkish and competing origins in Europe remain broadly steady in EUR terms, while hot, dry summer weather in Western Turkey bears watching as harvest approaches in early August.

Prices

Exchange data show that Turkish raisin export volumes are above the same week last year, but export prices are down, underscoring an exporter-friendly, grower-unfriendly market. Domestically, raw product prices around 90 TRY/kg have disappointed producers and are viewed as insufficient to cover rising costs.

On the international side, recent indicative offers suggest broadly stable EUR-denominated prices over the last month. Using an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 36 TRY and 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, Turkish Sultanas Type 9 Grade A at about 2.95 EUR/kg FOB Malatya and RTU Sultanas around 2.13 EUR/kg CIF remain in line with late-June levels. Indian raisins in New Delhi, meanwhile, show little movement, with golden Grade AA around 2.25–2.40 EUR/kg FOB/FCA and black and brown types clustered near 1.70–1.85 EUR/kg.

Supply & Demand

Fundamental market tone in Turkey is shaped by two opposing forces: rising exports and depressed local prices. Higher shipped volumes versus last year signal robust international demand and sufficient availability. However, producers perceive current raw-material pricing as unsustainably low relative to input costs, making them increasingly dependent on potential state support.

Globally, Turkey remains one of the key suppliers alongside China, the United States, Iran, South Africa and Chile. Recent industry balances suggest that while world raisin output in 2025/26 may soften compared with the previous year, total supply including carryover stocks should stay adequate, limiting the risk of an immediate structural shortage. Nonetheless, any policy-driven tightening in Turkey would quickly ripple through European buyers, who rely heavily on Turkish Sultanas for bakery and snack industries.

Fundamentals and Policy

The central domestic issue is the gap between the current raw-product level near 90 TRY/kg and producers’ expectation that TMO should announce at least 160 TRY/kg for the upcoming crop. This disparity highlights how far grower economics have fallen behind export realizations and feeds expectations for an official reference price or purchasing program.

Market participants widely anticipate that the Minister of Agriculture will attend the early-August harvest events, which the trade interprets as a signal that a TMO pricing decision could be announced or foreshadowed at that time. If TMO sets a higher intervention price, it would likely firm farmgate values and narrow exporters’ margins, while also establishing a de facto price floor for the new season. Absent such support, the current pattern of good export flows combined with weak producer sentiment could persist, potentially discouraging investment in vineyard maintenance over the medium term.

Weather and Harvest Outlook

The Turkish raisin harvest is scheduled to begin in the first week of August, with attention focused on Western Turkey’s key vineyard regions such as Manisa and Izmir. Seasonal forecasts and recent short-term outlooks point to typically hot, mostly dry summer conditions, with daytime highs commonly in the low to mid-30s °C in August.

Such weather is broadly supportive for sugar accumulation and drying but raises risks around heat stress and localized quality losses if extreme temperatures or hot winds coincide with the critical ripening and drying window. So far there are no indications of widespread adverse events, which supports expectations of a solid crop. However, any late heatwave or untimely rainfall event during early harvest could quickly alter quality and price spreads between grades.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Industrial Buyers: With current export prices lower than last year despite higher volumes, short- to medium-term coverage into Q4 2026 appears attractive, especially for standard Turkish Sultanas and Indian grades. However, maintain some flexibility until TMO’s price stance is clearer, as a higher intervention level could lift offers post-harvest.
• Exporters: Competitive pricing versus last year and solid demand argue for maintaining an active sales program ahead of the official harvest announcement, but avoid overcommitting volumes at current levels in case TMO sets a significantly higher reference price, compressing margins.
• Producers: Given raw prices holding near 90 TRY/kg, consider delaying major forward commitments until after early-August policy signals where possible. Use any confirmed TMO floor near producers’ 160 TRY/kg expectations to renegotiate or reset price ideas for the new crop.
• Speculative / Financial Participants: The key trade is around policy risk: downside in export prices looks limited if TMO intervenes, while upside could be capped by comfortable physical availability. Strategies that benefit from increased volatility around the August harvest and announcement window may be preferable to outright directional bets.

3-day Directional Outlook (EUR perspective)

• Turkey – Sultanas (export grades, EUR basis): Sideways to slightly firm. Market is waiting for clearer guidance on TMO pricing; no sharp moves expected in the next 3 days.
• India – Golden / Black / Brown Raisins (EUR basis): Largely stable. No immediate domestic or weather shocks visible; prices likely to track exchange rates more than fundamentals in the very short term.
• Europe – Delivered/warehouse positions (FCA NL/DE): Steady with a mild firming bias as buyers start to fine-tune pre-harvest coverage and logistics into the autumn demand period.