Desi Chana Holds Firm: India’s Chickpea Market Defies New-Crop Pressure

India’s desi chana (Bengal gram) market is entering early 2026 with a surprisingly resilient tone. Typically, the arrival of a new rabi crop from major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka brings visible pressure on spot prices as mandis are flooded with fresh supply. This year, however, the expected seasonal dip has largely failed to materialise. According to trade feedback, arrivals from Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have indeed started, but the flow is measured rather than overwhelming. At the same time, slower deliveries from Karnataka and Maharashtra and a still-standing crop in Rajasthan are acting as natural brakes on any oversupply. Against this backdrop, wholesale prices in Delhi for Rajasthani old chana and Australian-origin chickpeas are trading around $67–$70 per 100 kg (roughly stable versus recent weeks), while mandi quotes across India hover in the ₹5,000–₹5,150 per quintal range (about $60–$62 per 100 kg), with only marginal variation by centre and quality. The modest $1–$2 per 100 kg slippage in chana dal prices seen recently has not translated into broader weakness in the underlying grain, reinforcing the perception of a balanced market.

Despite a generally comfortable global chickpea supply picture and expectations of slightly higher Indian rabi production in 2025–26, domestic fundamentals in India—the world’s dominant producer and consumer—currently tilt more towards firmness than surplus. Reports of lower-than-expected productivity in some Madhya Pradesh fields, limited incremental import pressure from Australia (as most earlier cargoes are already cleared), and the strategic importance of chana for food inflation and farmer incomes all argue against a sharp downside. Domestic policy is also geared to ensure reasonable realisations for farmers, with minimum support prices providing a floor close to or above many cash-market quotes. Internationally, Mexican Kabuli chickpeas and Australian desi supplies are abundant, but India’s import appetite for desi chickpeas in the coming marketing season is likely to be more muted, preventing a significant wave of low-priced imports from undercutting domestic values. In this environment, traders on the ground continue to advise end-users and stockists to secure good-quality chana near current levels, viewing downside as limited and the risk skewed modestly to the upside—especially if arrivals do not suddenly surge or if weather or yield concerns intensify in remaining fields.

Prices & Market Structure

Spot and Derived Price Levels in India

• Delhi wholesale (physical): Rajasthani old chana and Australian-origin chickpeas at about $67–$70 per 100 kg, roughly $670–$700 per tonne. Using an indicative FX rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, this implies approximately EUR 616–644 per tonne.
• All-India mandis: Most chana quotes are reported around ₹5,000–₹5,150 per quintal (₹50,000–₹51,500 per tonne). With an approximate rate of ₹1 ≈ EUR 0.011, this equates to about EUR 550–567 per tonne, again consistent with a firm but not overheated market.
• Chana dal: Dal prices have eased by only $1–$2 per 100 kg in recent days, a minor correction that underscores stable raw grain fundamentals.

Export-Oriented FOB Quotes Converted to EUR

The current structured price data for export-quality dried chickpeas (FOB) in Mexico and India shows a gentle, controlled softening over the past month, not a collapse. Below, all prices are converted from USD/kg to EUR/kg using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, and rounded.

Key takeaway: International FOB values in both India and Mexico are easing modestly in USD terms, but in India’s internal rupee and physical wholesale markets, desi chana remains broadly firm, fully consistent with the Raw Text description of a balanced, steady market.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

India: Centre of Gravity for Desi Chana

• Domestic balance sheet: India accounts for roughly three-quarters of global chickpea output, with desi varieties dominating domestic diets. Chana represents nearly half of India’s total pulse production.
• Current season arrivals: New-crop supplies from Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are entering mandis, but the pace is described as measured. Coupled with slower arrivals from Karnataka and Maharashtra and a still-standing crop in Rajasthan, this prevents the classic harvest-time oversupply.
• Productivity concerns: Field reports suggest that yields in parts of Madhya Pradesh may fall short of earlier expectations, trimming the effective surplus despite official projections of higher production. This underpins the observed firmness in spot prices.
• Import flows: Most Australian-origin desi chana shipments destined for India have already been cleared, and there is little incremental import pressure at present. Traders expect India’s imports from Australia in the next marketing year to drop sharply versus previous peaks, in line with external estimates that foresee imports capped around 0.5 million tonnes versus 1.4 million tonnes earlier.
• Demand: Chana is a core food and protein source, used whole, split and as besan (flour). Structural demand is inelastic, and current price levels around the MSP corridor encourage steady offtake from households, small industries and government procurement schemes.

Global Context

• Production trends: Recent analyses suggest global chickpea production around the mid-teens in million tonnes, dominated by India, followed by Australia, Pakistan, Turkey, Ethiopia and others.
• Australia: After back-to-back good crops, Australian desi chickpea output remains sizeable, with exports heavily dependent on Indian demand and on North African and Middle Eastern buyers. Expectations of large Australian production (above 2.0 million tonnes in some projections) continue to hang over forward price ideas, but this is partly offset by India’s more cautious import stance.
• Mexico: Mexico’s chickpea sector is Kabuli-focused, with more than 90% of production in larger calibres aimed at export markets. The moderate softening in recent Mexican FOB prices in EUR terms still leaves Kabuli relatively expensive compared with some desi origins, but competitive in premium Mediterranean and European niches.

Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

Production and Stocks

• India rabi 2025–26: Second and third advance estimates suggest higher chickpea output versus the previous year, driven by increased acreage and broadly favourable rabi weather.
• But on-the-ground nuance: The Raw Text underscores that yield realisations in Madhya Pradesh may be below earlier expectations. This discrepancy between statistical projections and field experience helps explain why prices remain firm despite official talk of higher production.
• Stocks: Analytical work on India’s desi chickpea balance sheet points to tighter carry-out stocks in 2026/27 if import policies stay restrictive, even assuming modest production gains. Lower end-of-year stocks would structurally support prices.

Government Policy & MSP

• MSP as a floor: Gram (chana) enjoys a government-set Minimum Support Price designed to cover production costs plus a margin, with MSPs in recent seasons raised steadily to protect farmer incomes.
• Price realisations: Even where mandi prices occasionally undershoot MSPs for other crops, chana’s central role in diets and its strong procurement profile mean its realisations tend to track MSP more closely than some kharif pulses, reducing downside volatility.
• Trade policy: India maintains tariffs and quantitative controls on chickpea imports; market commentary suggests no major easing before at least late March 2026, keeping imported desi chana from flooding the market at low prices.

Speculative Positioning & Market Psychology

• Futures trading in chana on Indian exchanges has been periodically restricted, limiting speculative overshooting but also pushing more risk into the physical and OTC space.
• Given the Raw Text’s emphasis on traders advising continued buying at current levels, local sentiment is clearly constructive to mildly bullish, with participants viewing dips as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals.

Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

Short-Term Weather (Next 7–10 Days)

• Rajasthan: Recent reports and local commentary highlight above-normal daytime temperatures in parts of Rajasthan, including Jaipur, in early to mid-March 2026, consistent with pre-summer heating. For the standing chana crop, late-season heat accelerates maturity but could trim yields if accompanied by moisture stress.
• Madhya Pradesh & Maharashtra: Weather services indicate largely dry, seasonally warm conditions across central India over the next week, supportive of harvesting but offering no additional moisture boost for late-planted fields.
• Karnataka: Southern chickpea areas also face mostly dry conditions, allowing gradual pickup in arrivals as harvesting advances.

Weather Impact on Yields and Quality

• Standing crop in Rajasthan: With the crop still in the field in parts of Rajasthan, continued hot and dry weather may slightly reduce grain size and weight if soil moisture is depleted. However, the Raw Text suggests that the standing crop is currently helping limit arrivals, supporting prices in the short run.
• Madhya Pradesh productivity: Earlier weather or agronomic stresses likely contributed to the lower-than-expected productivity now being reported. With the harvest underway, this is turning into structurally smaller-than-hoped supplies, reinforcing the firm tone.
• Global weather: Australia and Mexico have not seen major recent adverse weather headlines affecting chickpea crops; combined with earlier favourable conditions, this supports comfortable exportable surpluses from those origins into late 2026.

Global Production & Trade Comparisons

Figures are indicative, synthesised from recent global production studies and trade reports.

Market Outlook & Scenarios

Base Case (Most Likely)

• Price path: In rupee and EUR terms, desi chana prices in India are expected to remain firm to mildly higher over the next 1–2 months, with any further downside from current mandi levels (around EUR 550–570/t equivalent) seen as limited.
• Arrivals: Gradual increase in arrivals from Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka will be partly offset by slower movement from Rajasthan and the reality of somewhat lower yields in some districts.
• Trade: Limited additional imports of Australian desi chana and adequate domestic production imply a balanced but not burdensome supply situation.

Bullish Scenario

• Hotter and drier-than-normal conditions in Rajasthan and parts of central India accelerate crop senescence, cutting yields and reducing the final marketed surplus.
• Domestic demand from besan mills and government procurement remains robust, while policy does not ease imports.
• Under such a scenario, spot prices for good-quality desi chana could edge above the current Delhi wholesale band (EUR 620–640/t equivalent) and test higher ranges in late Q2 2026.

Bearish Scenario

• Arrivals from all major producing states surge simultaneously, overwhelming mandi infrastructure for a period.
• Global Kabuli and desi supplies from Australia and Mexico compete aggressively on price, prompting India to modestly open import channels.
• In this case, a correction of perhaps 5–8% from current EUR-equivalent mandi levels is possible, although MSP and government intervention make a deeper, sustained slump less likely.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For domestic buyers (mills, large users in India):
  • Continue scale-in buying of good-quality desi chana at or near current mandi and wholesale prices, in line with trader advice in the Raw Text.
  • Prioritise procurement from regions where arrivals are steady (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra) to secure volumes without paying scarcity premiums.
• For stockists and traders:
  • Use any short-term dips (e.g. on temporary arrival spikes) to add to inventories, with an eye on moderate upside over the next 1–3 months.
  • Avoid excessive leverage given policy uncertainty, but a mildly long bias is justified by the balanced-to-tight outlook and limited import pressure.
• For international buyers (EU, MENA):
  • Monitor the relative economics of Indian desi vs Mexican and Australian Kabuli in EUR terms; current FOB trends suggest modest softening in export quotes, especially from Mexico.
  • Consider staggered purchases through Q2 2026, hedging a portion of needs now while leaving room to benefit from any global oversupply-led discounts later in the year.
• For producers (India, Mexico, Australia):
  • Indian farmers should leverage government procurement and MSP floors, avoiding distress sales during peak arrival weeks where possible.
  • Mexican and Australian growers, facing competitive pressure, may explore forward contracts in EUR with key importers to lock in margins amid potential further softness.

3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (All in EUR)

Note: These are directional, short-term indications derived from current fundamentals and recent EUR-converted price levels, not exchange-traded futures.

Over the coming three days, the dominant theme is stability: Indian domestic prices are expected to hold within narrow bands, reflecting the firmly balanced conditions described in the Raw Text, while export-focused FOB markets in India and Mexico continue to edge lower in EUR terms but in an orderly, non-disruptive fashion.