Chinese millet prices remain broadly stable as low farm stocks offset weak demand and comfortable mill inventories. Short-term outlook steady.
Prices & Recent Moves
Export offers from China for hulled yellow millet kernels have moved only slightly in recent weeks, consistent with a stable domestic market.
The very small day‑to‑day changes in Chinese FOB prices are in line with market feedback that more than 90% of participants expect current millet prices to remain stable. Organic kernels continue to command a clear premium over conventional product.
Supply & Demand Balance
Exporters report that remaining 2025 millet stocks at the farm level are low, in the range of roughly 10–30% depending on region, and that old-crop carryover is also limited. Overall primary availability is below the same period in the previous two years, which underpins farm‑gate and upstream prices.
On the demand side, rising temperatures have not led to an improvement in xiaomi sales. Most mills still hold comfortable raw millet inventories, and their procurement pace is clearly unaggressive. As a result, physical spot turnover is modest and buying is largely hand‑to‑mouth, with little evidence of forward coverage.
This combination of tight farm stocks and soft near‑term demand has produced a stand‑off: farmers are reluctant to lower offers given limited remaining volume, while mills see no strong need to bid prices higher. The net result is a sideways market with narrow intra‑day ranges.
Fundamentals & Weather
The cost side of the market is relatively stable. Reported millet procurement costs have not shown significant volatility in recent weeks, and there are no major changes in input costs that would force immediate price adjustments.
According to the national meteorological service, from May 6–8 southern China is experiencing a new round of widespread rainfall, while parts of Huang‑Huai and southern North China see gusty winds and local thunderstorms. For key millet‑growing belts in North and Northeast China, this pattern implies generally adequate soil moisture with some localized weather risk, but nothing currently severe enough to disrupt supply expectations or to trigger a weather‑driven price rally in the very short term.
Short-Term Outlook
Given the present supply‑demand configuration, the base case is for millet prices in China to remain stable in the near term. The market is more sensitive to potential demand shifts than to immediate supply shocks, as remaining farm stocks are already comparatively low.
As summer approaches, any sustained improvement in xiaomi offtake or a sudden pick‑up in mill procurement could quickly translate into firmer bids, given the thin cushion of farm‑level inventories. Conversely, if end‑user demand continues to stagnate, prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow band rather than decline sharply, supported by the limited availability of grain at origin.
Trading Outlook
- Buyers (mills, food processors): With prices stable and farm stocks tight, consider maintaining moderate coverage into early summer rather than relying solely on spot, especially for higher‑spec and organic kernels where replacement risk is higher.
- Farmers and upstream holders: Low residual stocks provide bargaining support; orderly, staged selling is advisable. Aggressive undercutting appears unnecessary as the market does not show strong downside momentum.
- Exporters and traders: Marginal FOB movements suggest limited room for discounting. Focus on quality differentiation and logistics reliability to defend premiums rather than competing primarily on price.
3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)
- China, FOB Beijing – conventional hulled kernels: Around 0.76 EUR/kg, bias: stable.
- China, FOB Beijing – organic hulled kernels: Around 0.84 EUR/kg, bias: stable to slightly firm on tight high‑quality supply.
- Ukraine, FOB/FCA Odesa – millet seeds/kernels: Around 0.24–1.20 EUR/kg depending on specification, bias: stable with limited fresh signals for immediate change.