Raisin Prices Edge Up in India While Turkish Sultanas Ease

Indian and Turkish raisin benchmarks are diverging modestly: Indian grades are ticking higher on tight exportable supply, while key Turkish sultanas have softened after earlier frost-driven premiums. Continental European FCA prices for Turkish and Chilean origins are stable, suggesting a broadly balanced near‑term market. Global raisin fundamentals remain comfortable but not loose. Latest industry data point to a 2025/26 world raisin supply contraction versus last season, led by lower production in India and Türkiye, partially offset by higher output in China and Afghanistan. Weather in May is largely benign across major origins, with no fresh frost or rain shocks reported in the last few days. Trade flows remain steady into Europe, where competition between Turkish, Chinese and Chilean origins keeps shelf prices in check.

Prices & Spreads (All in EUR/kg)

(Indicative FX assumption: 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.)

Supply & Demand Snapshot

India (IN)

India’s raisin balance for 2025/26 is tightening after a sharp drop in grape production: global industry estimates show Indian raisin output falling from about 245,000 t in 2024/25 to roughly 160,000 t in 2025/26, with total supply down nearly 30%. Fresh‑grape export data from Nashik indicate a near‑10% decline in export volumes this season due to adverse weather, echoing pressure on raisin‑grade availability. This underpins the current firmer tone in New Delhi FOB offers.

Türkiye (TR)

Türkiye remains a key price maker in sultanas. Earlier in 2026, concerns about frost and prior stock tightness kept Malatya sultana prices elevated, but recent market commentary indicates exporters are now prioritising competitiveness and keeping prices broadly stable despite agronomic risks. Combined with comfortable carry‑in stocks (ending stocks projected at 20,000 t for 2025/26), this helps explain the recent softening in Malatya FOB type‑8/9/10 quotations from early‑May highs.

China (CN) & Chile (CL)

China’s Turpan region remains the dominant source of green raisins, accounting for more than 80% of national production and consolidating China’s role as a top‑three global raisin producer. Latest forecasts from the dried‑fruit industry point to Chinese raisin production rising from about 130,000 t to 190,000 t in 2025/26, adding comfortable supply at competitive price points. Chile’s overall grape sector has navigated a weather‑impacted table‑grape season, with rainfall episodes reducing some yields, but recent harvest reports from central valleys highlight largely positive outcomes and a roughly 12% increase in wine‑grape output under La Niña‑driven warm, early conditions. Raisin‑grade availability from Chile into Europe appears steady at current FCA levels.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan’s raisin sector is gradually rebuilding: industry statistics indicate a jump in production from about 12,000 t to 20,000 t between 2024/25 and 2025/26, with total supply around 21,000 t. While much of this volume targets regional trade, competitively priced Afghan feed‑grade raisins continue to feed into European processing and feed channels, reflected in stable FCA prices in the Netherlands.

Fundamentals & Weather

• Global balance: World raisin production is projected to fall from about 1.35 million t in 2024/25 to roughly 1.16 million t in 2025/26, with total supply down around 8%, mainly on reduced crops in India, Türkiye, Iran and the USA.
• Stocks and consumption: Despite lower output, projected ending stocks (≈137,000 t) remain adequate relative to global consumption, tempering upside price risk in the near term.

Weather Outlook (Next 7–10 Days)

• India (Maharashtra) – Seasonal pre‑monsoon heat continues; no major rain events are forecast in key raisin districts, which supports drying and storage conditions for remaining stocks (based on regional May forecasts and absence of new weather alerts in recent days).
• Türkiye (Malatya/West Aegean) – Early‑May frost window has largely passed; current outlook points to mild spring temperatures without significant cold intrusions, limiting new frost risk for 2026/27 vineyards (derived from regional spring weather coverage and absence of fresh warnings).
• China (Xinjiang) – In Turpan‑type continental climates, May remains dry and warming; latest city‑level forecasts (e.g. Jining analogue) show normal to slightly warm conditions without excessive rainfall, favouring vine growth and later drying potential.
• Chile (Central & South) – Autumn weather is cool and relatively stable; monthly outlooks for Biobío show highs in the mid‑teens °C and limited heavy rain events, suggesting orderly wrap‑up of grape harvesting and drying activities.
• Afghanistan (Northern valleys) – No significant new weather disruptions are reported in regional ag coverage over the past few days; vineyards are transitioning through early vegetative stages under seasonally warm, dry conditions, supportive for the 2026 crop build‑up.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 Days)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi) – With exportable raisins constrained by earlier weather damage and a structurally smaller 2025/26 crop, offers for golden and brown grades are likely to stay firm to slightly higher over the next three days, especially for nearby shipments.
• Türkiye (TR, Malatya FOB & EU FCA) – After recent corrections, sultana prices are expected to move sideways in the very short term as exporters defend market share; any new frost headlines would be more relevant for the next season than for spot pricing.
• China (CN, EU FCA) – Chinese sultanas into Europe should remain stable, anchored by growing production and competition with Turkish and Chilean origins.
• Chile (CL, EU FCA) – Flame jumbo raisins are likely to trade flat in the coming days, with buyers well covered and no new weather shocks.
• Afghanistan (AF, EU FCA feed grades) – Feed‑quality raisins are expected to hold steady, providing a low‑priced alternative for blending and feed uses.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers in Europe: Consider extending coverage modestly on Indian origin if available, as structural supply tightness may support a gradual premium versus Turkish and Chinese sultanas.
• Importers of Turkish sultanas: Use the current soft patch in Malatya FOB offers to lock in Q3 needs, but avoid over‑extending as global stocks remain adequate.
• Blend/industrial users: Evaluate Afghan feed‑grade and Chinese standard sultanas as cost‑effective components in mixes, especially if consumer requirements allow for origin flexibility.