China’s Soybean Imports Surge While Meal Stocks Face Mounting Pressure

China’s soybean imports have rebounded sharply with April arrivals surging and more South American cargoes on the way, easing supply concerns but raising the risk of soymeal stock build-up and downward pressure on crush margins. China’s April soybean imports reached 8.48 million tonnes, more than double March volumes and 40% above last year, as delayed cargoes cleared customs and Brazilian beans arrived seasonally in force. Robust demand from food processing and biofuel sectors is sustaining high import needs, while record South American supply keeps the flow strong. With customs bottlenecks easing and China–Brazil cooperation on sanitary controls stabilising the import rhythm, crushers face comfortable bean availability in coming months. However, this also points to growing inventories of soymeal and potentially softer domestic protein prices if demand does not keep pace.

Prices & Market Tone

Internationally, ample South American supply has capped rallies, but nearby soybean values remain supported by strong Chinese demand. On China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most active No.1 soybean futures contract for July 2026 recently closed lower around CNY 4,716 per tonne, signalling some easing of domestic price expectations as supply normalises.

Physical FOB indications from key origins converted to EUR show a mixed but overall softening picture: U.S. No. 2 soybeans around EUR 0.63/kg, Ukrainian beans near EUR 0.34/kg, Indian sortex clean soybeans about EUR 0.86/kg (down from earlier levels), and Chinese FOB Beijing yellow soybeans around EUR 0.71/kg, also slightly off recent highs. This combination of cheaper Black Sea supply and easing Chinese domestic offers underlines a more balanced, mildly bearish near-term tone.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

Chinese customs data indicate April soybean imports at 8.48 million tonnes, up from 4.02 million tonnes in March and 6.08 million tonnes a year earlier, confirming a 40% year-on-year surge. This reflects both catch-up from earlier customs delays and structurally robust demand from domestic food processing and biofuel industries. Seasonally, April marks the ramp-up of Brazilian arrivals, and this year’s strong Brazilian crop and export pull amplify the inflow.

Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China in 2026, underpinned by a record harvest and export projections above 108 million tonnes, with China as the primary destination. As stricter phytosanitary checks introduced earlier in the year are now being managed more smoothly, export logistics and customs clearance have normalised. This reduces the risk of short-term shortages in China but increases the likelihood of sustained high import volumes through the coming months.

Fundamentals: Crush, Stocks & Policy

The sharp recovery in April arrivals, together with the expected continuation of high Brazilian shipments, implies comfortable bean supply for Chinese crushers. With the China–Brazil consensus on soybean trade and inspections helping to stabilise customs throughput, oilseed processors can plan crush schedules with greater confidence, reducing basis volatility but also limiting upside price risk.

However, the same dynamics raise concerns about downstream inventories. As South American soybeans arrive in bulk and crushing runs remain high, domestic soymeal stocks are set to rise. The market is already anticipating a build-up, which may weigh on soymeal prices and margins unless feed demand from livestock and aquaculture accelerates. For now, the balance of evidence points to a looming phase of inventory accumulation rather than tightness in China’s protein meal complex.

Weather & Regional Outlook

Weather in key Chinese soybean-growing provinces such as Heilongjiang and Jilin is seasonally mild in mid-May, with no major stress signals in short-term forecasts. Given that current market focus is on import flows rather than domestic crop risks, short-term price formation is driven more by Brazilian logistics, global freight and policy than by Chinese field conditions.

In South America, the near-complete Brazilian harvest and ongoing strong exports keep global availability high. Record production and aggressive export programmes from Brazil continue to exert structural downward pressure on international soybean prices, even as Chinese buying remains large in volume terms.

Trading & Risk Outlook

• Crushers in China: Consider locking in a portion of nearby bean needs while FOB prices are soft and customs flows are normalising, but be cautious about over-extending soymeal sales given rising inventory risk.
• Importers: Favour Brazilian and Black Sea origins where available, as competitive EUR-denominated FOB values and abundant supply offer good opportunities to secure medium-term coverage.
• Feed producers: Monitor soymeal basis closely; an expected stock build could offer better buying windows in coming weeks, particularly if Dalian futures remain under pressure.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR-based)

• China (FOB Beijing soybeans): Mildly bearish to sideways over the next three days as high April imports and expectations of continued South American arrivals cap domestic prices.
• US Gulf/Atlantic FOB: Sideways with slight downside bias in EUR terms, reflecting strong Brazilian competition and limited incremental Chinese buying.
• Black Sea (Ukraine FOB): Largely stable; already priced competitively, with only modest room for further discounts in the very short term.