Raisin exports accelerate as supply risks and yield losses loom

Exports are accelerating into the end of the season, but underlying yield losses and the risk of TMO running out of raw material leave the raisin market finely balanced with clear upside price risk. In recent weeks, Turkish raisin exports have clearly strengthened versus last year, giving farmers welcome support at the tail end of the 2025/26 season. Weekly exports reached about 3,000 tons by 16 May, roughly 700 tons above last year’s level, and market participants expect this stronger pace to persist for at least another three weeks. At the same time, previous yield losses and already lower price levels are creating concern for growers ahead of the coming harvest. If TMO stocks of raw raisins tighten significantly, the market could pivot quickly from today’s stability to firmer prices, especially for remaining farmer-held stocks.

Prices

Current spot quotations in EUR indicate a broadly stable but differentiated market between Turkish sultanas and alternative origins:

The sharp correction in Turkish FOB prices for some sultana grades earlier in May has now paused, with quotes holding steady over the last several days. In contrast, Indian raisins show a mild firming trend, narrowing the discount to Turkish product, while Chinese offers remain broadly competitive but stable. The current price structure still rewards buyers willing to commit to Turkish origin, but the downside appears increasingly limited given export strength and looming stock constraints.

Supply & Demand

Weekly exports as of 16 May have risen to about 3,000 tons, around 700 tons above the comparable week last year. This acceleration signals robust international demand at today’s price levels and supports a faster-than-expected drawdown of remaining old-crop stocks in Turkey. Market expectations are that this elevated export pace will persist for at least the next three weeks, likely tightening free supplies held by both traders and TMO.

At the same time, there have been substantial yield losses in Turkish raisin production since last year, which have already translated into earlier price declines and squeezed farmer margins. While these lower prices have aided export competitiveness, they are heightening grower concerns for the new season, particularly if cost inflation continues. Globally, alternative origins such as India and China appear reasonably well supplied, but their incremental volumes are not yet enough to fully offset any sharp tightening in Turkish availability.

Fundamentals & TMO Factor

The market is increasingly focused on the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and the level of its remaining raw raisin stocks. If TMO runs out of raw material before the new crop is available, buyers will be forced to rely more heavily on farmer and trader inventories. In that scenario, farmers would likely be able to sell residual stocks at significantly better prices than those seen earlier in the season, especially for higher grades and RTU product.

Recent official communication on grains suggests that TMO is entering the broader harvest period with substantial storage capacity and is willing to manage stocks actively across commodities.  While these messages focus on cereals, they underpin the perception that TMO will prioritize market stability but cannot fully shield the raisin complex from tightness if yields disappoint again. With export flows currently strong, even a moderately smaller carry-in could be enough to swing sentiment bullish once pre-harvest coverage increases.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in the key Turkish sultana region around Manisa have recently been favorable, with spring-like temperatures and a mix of sunshine and showers supporting vineyard development. Current estimates in the trade point to a potential recovery of Turkish sultana and raisin production toward roughly 300,000 mt under these conditions, which would mark the strongest crop in about four years. 

This constructive outlook contrasts with the significant yield losses observed last season and introduces a medium-term bearish element if realized. However, weather-related risks, including possible heatwaves or localized storms, remain in play over the coming weeks. Until the crop is further advanced and more firmly secured, the combination of strong old-crop exports and uncertainty about final yields justifies a risk premium on nearby positions.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term (next 3–4 weeks): Bias moderately bullish for nearby Turkish sultanas as exports stay strong and old-crop stocks tighten, especially if market talk intensifies around limited TMO raw material.
• New-crop coverage: Industrial buyers with exposure to Turkish origin should consider layering in partial coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs, while avoiding overcommitment until yield prospects are more certain.
• Origin diversification: With Indian prices edging up but still competitive, partial diversification into Indian or Chinese raisins can hedge against a potential upside spike in Turkish offers.
• Farmers and packers: Growers holding quality stocks may benefit from patience, as current fundamentals and expectations of TMO tightness support the prospect of better selling opportunities before the new season fully starts.

3‑Day Price Indication

• Turkey – Malatya FOB (sultanas type 9 & 10): Prices seen broadly stable in EUR terms over the next 3 days, with a slight upward bias if additional export enquiries emerge.
• Northwest Europe – FCA NL (Turkish & Chinese sultanas): Quotes expected to hold around current levels, with limited room for further discounting given freight and financing costs.
• India – FOB New Delhi (golden & brown): Mildly firm tone likely to persist, tracking steady overseas demand and relatively attractive price parity versus Turkish product.