Turkish Raisin Prices Flat but New-Crop Optimism Caps Upside
Concise update on Turkish raisin prices, supply outlook, weather in Malatya and short-term trading implications for sultana buyers and sellers.
Prices & Spreads
All prices below are approximate and converted into EUR/mt (1 EUR/kg = 1,000 EUR/mt) for comparability.
In EU wholesale channels, generic brown raisins are quoted around 6.30 EUR/kg (~6,300 EUR/mt) in Paris-region B2B trade as of 18 May, down about 11% year‑on‑year, indicating some easing from last year’s peak but still historically firm levels. Retail offers for standard sultana raisins in Northern Europe also hover near 6.3–6.5 EUR/kg on a consumer pack basis, underlining a wide gap between farm/export prices in Turkey and downstream consumer prices.
Supply, Demand & New-Crop Outlook
Global raisin supply is concentrated in a few key producers, with Turkey, the US, Iran, India and South Africa leading exports. Recent international industry estimates suggest that world raisin production in 2025/26 is easing from the prior season, but still ample, with Turkey’s 2025/26 crop put around 165,000 mt (down from over 226,000 mt in 2024/25) according to industry statistics.
Fresh commentary from trade analysts this week points to improving vineyard conditions and the potential for a markedly higher 2026/27 Turkish sultana crop, with unofficial talk of yields approaching 300,000 mt if current conditions hold—well above last season and close to the strong 2022/23 outcome. While these early estimates carry weather risk, they already shape expectations that exportable supply from Turkey will expand next marketing year, limiting any sustained price rally unless demand surprises to the upside.
On the demand side, global raisin consumption remains relatively mature, with stable retail demand but some volatility in industrial usage linked to bakery, snack and cereal applications. EU ingredient buyers, facing high shelf prices and tight food margins, are reportedly price‑sensitive and opportunistic, which reinforces the current wait‑and‑see attitude on forward coverage at today’s flat Turkish offer levels.
Weather & Crop Conditions – Focus on Türkiye (TR)
Short‑term weather in Malatya (eastern Turkey) over 20–22 May 2026 is forecast to be relatively cool for the season, with daytime highs around 17–21°C, considerable cloudiness and the possibility of isolated thundershowers before turning mostly sunny by Friday. This pattern is not currently seen as damaging for vineyards but does keep some localised storm risk in play.
Earlier in May, regional meteorological alerts highlighted episodes of strong thunderstorms and possible hail in parts of Malatya province, which raised some concern about spot damage in orchards and vineyards. However, latest trade reporting on Turkey’s main sultana belt around Manisa notes generally favourable conditions, with warm temperatures and scattered showers supporting good vine development and underpinning expectations for a recovery in national production. So far, there are no widespread reports of serious frost or hail losses that would materially tighten the 2026/27 supply outlook.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Stocks & Carryover: Global raisin ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to remain significant, with world carryover above 130,000 mt, providing a buffer against localized weather issues.
- Currency & Trade Flows: Turkey’s broader fruit and nut export performance into Europe remains robust, supporting continued competitiveness of Turkish raisins in key EU destinations even as domestic inflation and currency volatility play in the background.
- Competitive Origins: Other major raisin origins—such as Iran, India, South Africa and the US—also show mixed but generally adequate supply, with no immediate, severe shortage flagged in recent global overviews.
- Downstream Pricing: The substantial markup between Turkish export offers around 2.1–2.3 EUR/kg and EU wholesale/retail prices above 6 EUR/kg suggests scope for margin compression downstream rather than strong upward pressure at origin in the near term.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)
- For importers and packers: With Turkish FOB/CIF sultana prices flat and early signals of a larger 2026/27 crop, there is no strong incentive to chase the market higher. Light to moderate coverage for Q3 needs at current levels appears reasonable, while retaining flexibility for potential discounts if export interest slows.
- For Turkish exporters: Price discipline remains key: current offers are competitive against EU spot values but may face resistance from cost‑conscious industrial buyers. Selective discounts on volume parcels could be needed if inquiries soften, particularly for standard grade 8–9 sultanas.
- For traders and brokers: Short‑term directional bias is neutral to slightly soft, with weather risk the main upside driver and expanding new‑crop expectations capping rallies. Spreads between organic and conventional Turkish sultanas are wide and likely to persist given stable organic premiums.
3‑Day Price Direction – Key Turkish References (TR)
- Malatya CIF – sultanas type 9, RTU (TR): Prices expected to remain in a tight range around 2,130 EUR/mt over the next three days, with no strong catalysts for movement.
- Malatya FOB – sultanas type 9, grade A (TR): Sideways bias near 2,150 EUR/mt; buyers and sellers likely to test market with small, negotiated adjustments only.
- Malatya FOB – sultanas type 8 & 10, grade A (TR): Stable around 2,100–2,300 EUR/mt; quality and size differentials, rather than headline market direction, will drive any micro‑price changes in the very short term.