Hormuz Shock Rewires Chickpea Trade: India Tightens, Australia Scrambles
Australian chickpea exports to India collapse amid Hormuz crisis as Indian prices firm and exporters face mounting pressure. Concise May 2026 outlook.
Prices & Trade Flows
Australian chickpea exports to India collapsed to just 27,120 tonnes in March 2026, a 60% year-on-year fall from 71,779 tonnes in March 2025. The sequential picture is even more dramatic: after India absorbed 640,180 tonnes from Australia between October and December 2025, monthly imports hovered around 70,638 tonnes in January, jumped to 227,624 tonnes in February, then crashed to only 6,979 tonnes in March, the lowest level of the current marketing season.
Indian domestic prices have started to respond. At Laurence Road, Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chickpea moter improved modestly to the equivalent of about €57–€58 per 100 kg, while chickpea dal held around €64–€68. The Kabuli variety saw the largest single-day move, gaining roughly €1.90–€2.80 per 100 kg within a quality-based band of about €60–€92. Australian container chickpeas for June–July shipment are holding near €535 per tonne CIF, with Tanzania-origin May–June CIF around €515 per tonne, underscoring a still-firm global pricing environment despite softer trade volumes.
Supply, Demand & Logistics
India remains the dominant single destination for Australian chickpeas, so the abrupt scaling-back of Indian orders has left Australian shippers scrambling for alternative outlets. The United Arab Emirates, which has taken about 55,000 tonnes between October and March, is also at risk as the Hormuz disruption constrains regional routing, keeps container capacity tight and elevates insurance and war-risk premiums. Recent trackers indicate that overall Strait of Hormuz traffic is still running far below pre-crisis levels, even as limited tanker and cargo flows cautiously resume under heavy security and higher costs.
On the demand side, Indian industry sentiment is turning structurally more bullish. Jindal Overseas CMD Pradeep Jindal has publicly argued that farmgate realisations must rise to roughly €78–€88 per 100 kg to secure sufficient acreage, warning that India’s current import dependence of about 20% could climb toward 50% within five to six years absent targeted policy support. This positioning reinforces a medium-term narrative of tighter domestic balances and more price-supportive trade policy for chickpeas and pulses more broadly.
Fundamentals & Regional Prices (EUR)
FOB and FCA offers in India and Mexico have been broadly steady over May, with only modest week-on-week adjustments. Converted to EUR (approximate FX), indicative export offers currently cluster as follows:
These levels position Indian-origin chickpeas as price-competitive for nearby demand in Asia, the Middle East and parts of Europe, while Mexican origin commands a premium for larger calibres and proximity to North American and Atlantic buyers. With Australian CIF offers into India and the Gulf effectively capped by freight and risk premia, price discovery is increasingly being driven by Indian domestic fundamentals and the relative attractiveness of alternative origins.
Weather & Short-Term Risks
Weather is not the primary near-term driver compared with logistics and policy, but it remains a background risk. Early indications from major chickpea-growing belts in India suggest mostly seasonally normal conditions ahead of monsoon onset, while Australian growers monitor moisture profiles ahead of winter sowing windows. Any negative weather surprise in either region would intersect with already fragile trade routes, amplifying price volatility in a market where key consumers are becoming structurally more import-dependent.
More immediately, the Hormuz situation is the key wildcard. While some tankers and cargo flows are gradually reappearing, shipping trackers and carrier advisories still describe the corridor as effectively constrained, with elevated war-risk premiums likely to persist even under partial reopening scenarios. This implies that any fresh escalation or operational incident could quickly translate into renewed upside pressure on delivered chickpea prices into the Gulf and South Asia.
Market & Trading Outlook
Over the next two to four weeks, Indian chickpea prices are likely to grind higher, supported by structurally lighter imports, firm domestic demand and the signalling effect of industry calls for higher farmgate returns. Downside in India appears limited while Hormuz-related logistics remain fragile and Australian flows are constrained. By contrast, Australian exporters face deepening pricing pressure if they are forced to discount to clear surplus tonnage into secondary destinations.
- For importers in Asia & MENA: Consider advancing nearby coverage from diversified origins (India, Mexico, East Africa) to hedge against renewed Hormuz disruptions and potential Indian policy tightening later in the season.
- For Australian sellers: Explore flexible routing and pricing structures toward non-Indian destinations, including basis-linked formulas to share freight and risk premia with buyers rather than outright flat-price discounts.
- For Indian buyers and millers: Use current modest domestic price strength to lock in raw material for 1–2 months where storage allows, but avoid chasing rallies given the risk of policy intervention if retail prices spike too quickly.
3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- India (New Delhi, export-grade chickpeas): Slightly firmer bias (+1–2%) as domestic prices edge higher and imports stay subdued.
- Australia (CIF India/Gulf benchmarks): Mostly sideways in EUR terms, with downside risk if Australian sellers increase discounts to move volume.
- Mexico (FOB Mexico City): Broadly stable with a mild soft tone, tracking global pulses but cushioned by regional demand and freight differentials.