Turkish Raisin Prices Flat but Firm as Weather Stays Favorable

Turkish raisin prices are steady this week, with export sultana offers broadly unchanged and no immediate weather threat to vineyards. A balanced global supply picture and resilient European demand are keeping the market firm but range‑bound. After several weeks of sideways trading, Turkish sultana and seedless raisin prices remain stable in late May. Export offers from Malatya are flat compared with mid‑month, while domestic spot activity at Izmir Commodity Exchange is muted, reflecting a well‑covered trade and comfortable stocks. European dried grape demand is steady, underpinned by robust consumption, and Turkey’s position as a key supplier remains secure after raisin exports exceeded EUR 100 million equivalent in Q1 2026. With calm weather expected in key growing areas and no fresh supply shock, price risk in the short term is skewed slightly to the upside mainly through currency and logistics costs rather than field conditions.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR and 1 TRY = 0.031 EUR; figures are approximate.

Domestic spot quotations at Izmir Commodity Exchange show virtually no traded volume in the sultanas/seedless segment in recent sessions, indicating a quiet physical market with reference prices not actively tested by fresh deals. European wholesale prices for fresh grapes around EUR 3.9/kg in Rungis provide an upper benchmark for dried grape retail substitution but have limited short‑term impact on bulk industrial raisin pricing.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains one of the leading global suppliers of dried grapes, with the 2025/26 season starting from relatively comfortable opening stocks of around 40,000 tons and a projected production near 165,000 tons, giving total supply above 200,000 tons. Raisin exports from Türkiye reached about USD 107 million in the first quarter of 2026, confirming solid overseas demand and diversified customer geography across 60+ countries.

On the demand side, Europe still absorbs roughly half of global dried grape imports, with consumption structurally stable around 3.6 kg per capita in key markets. This underpins Turkey’s export pipeline even when other dried fruit categories face more volatility. Global raisin production in 2025/26 is expected to decline from the previous season, mainly due to smaller crops in India and Iran, which tightens the overall balance but is partly offset by increased Chinese output. In this context, Turkey’s stable supply and export infrastructure support its role as price reference for sultanas.

Fundamentals & Weather

Short‑term fundamental news is limited this week, with no new state intervention or stock program announced for raisins, in contrast to recent moves by Turkey’s grain board (TMO) in cereals. The dried fruit export complex as a whole continues to perform well: Turkish dried fruit and products reached over USD 400 million in Q1 2026, with raisins a substantial contributor. Combined with still‑elevated logistics and diesel costs in Europe, this helps keep export offer levels firm even without field‑driven supply stress.

Weather in key Turkish raisin regions is currently benign. In Malatya, conditions over the next three days (29–31 May) are forecast to be partly sunny to sunny, with daytime highs around 20–23°C and cool nights, and only isolated early thunderstorms on 29 May. This pattern is supportive for vine development and does not pose an immediate risk of disease pressure or flowering damage. Seasonal climate data for western production zones such as Manisa also point to typical late‑May temperatures, with no exceptional heat or frost episodes reported in the last few days. Overall, weather is neutral‑to‑positive for the developing 2026 crop.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

With global raisin production forecast lower year‑on‑year and consumption broadly stable, the fundamental bias remains mildly supportive for prices into early summer. In the very short term, however, Turkish sultana prices are likely to remain range‑bound: comfortable stocks, quiet spot trading in Izmir, and absence of weather shocks argue against a sharp move in either direction.

• Importers/Industry buyers (EU/UK): Use current stability to extend cover modestly into Q3 at today’s flat EUR price levels; consider scaling in rather than waiting for notable dips, as downside appears limited given tighter global balances.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with Q1 exports solid and weather supportive, there is little need to discount aggressively. Monitor freight and diesel costs closely, as any renewed spike could justify small EUR/kg increases in new offers.
• Speculative/merchant positions: Short‑term trading is better focused on intra‑origin spreads (e.g., China vs Turkey, standard vs organic) rather than outright flat prices, which are likely to drift sideways until clearer signals on 2026 crop size emerge.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

• Türkiye – Malatya FOB/CIF sultanas: Prices expected to remain in the current band (≈ EUR 1.90–2.15/kg for main grades) with a stable to slightly firm bias driven by global fundamentals rather than local weather.
• EU (delivered, ex‑warehouse for Turkish sultanas): No major moves anticipated; modest upward cost pressure possible from fuel and freight into key hubs like Rotterdam and Hamburg, but likely limited to a few eurocents per kg over the next three days.