Australian Macadamias: Big 2026 Crop Meets Softer Global Prices

Australian macadamias are heading into 2026 with one of the largest and best-quality crops on record, but a forecast 15% increase in global supply and lingering geopolitical frictions are keeping prices subdued in the near term. At the same time, maturing orchards, improved farm management and expanding value‑added demand in Asia, the US, the Middle East and Europe are strengthening the medium‑ to long‑term growth story for the sector, even as buyers enjoy ample choice and strong bargaining power in 2026.

Prices & Market Mood

Macadamia prices remain under pressure as global supply is expected to rise by about 15% in 2026, adding to carryover stocks from previous seasons and giving buyers greater leverage in contract negotiations. Australian farmgate prices are currently described as "somewhat subdued", reflecting both the larger local crop and heightened competition from other origins.

Internationally, spot and contract indications from key Asian import hubs suggest a soft-to-sideways price environment rather than a sharp rebound, with wholesale kernel offers constrained by strong supply from South Africa, Australia and emerging African and Latin American origins. In this context, quality differentials and reliability of supply are playing a larger role than headline price moves in securing sales.

Supply & Demand Balance

Australia’s macadamia industry is on track for one of its largest crops on record in 2026. Intake volumes are higher across most processors, mainly because newer orchards are entering commercial production, with first and second‑year harvests adding meaningful tonnage to the national pool. This reflects the impact of substantial orchard expansion in previous years, which is now translating into a larger and more consistent supply base.

Seasonal conditions were broadly favourable across major growing regions. Some areas experienced extended dry spells, which trimmed nut set and reduced average nut size in certain varieties, but overall growing and harvest conditions were supportive. Quality has improved compared with the past two seasons, with fewer rejected nuts and better orchard management helping to lift yields and kernel recovery rates.

On the demand side, exports remain the backbone of the Australian industry. Asia is the strongest outlet, led by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and China, where macadamias are used both as premium snacks and as ingredients in confectionery and bakery. Additional volume flows to the United States, the Middle East and Europe, supporting a diversified customer base and reducing dependence on any single region.

Fundamentals & Value‑Added Trends

Improved grower returns in 2025 – via higher farmgate prices – allowed producers to reinvest in nutrition, pest control, pruning and other practices, setting up a stronger 2026 crop in terms of both yield and quality. This technical progress at farm level is important as the sector transitions from periodic supply tightness to a phase of sustained, high output.

At the product level, Australian processors are steadily shifting from a reliance on raw kernel sales to a broader portfolio of value‑added formats. Diced, roasted, flavoured and coated macadamias, as well as macadamia paste for dairy, ice cream and wider food manufacturing, are attracting growing interest, particularly in Asia‑Pacific where premium nut consumption is rising. This diversification helps support margins and mitigate the impact of softer base kernel prices.

Globally, macadamias remain a relatively young category compared with almonds, cashews or hazelnuts. Market studies indicate that Asia‑Pacific already accounts for a large share of macadamia demand and is expected to post some of the fastest growth rates through 2030, underpinned by higher incomes, premium gifting and health‑oriented snacking trends. This structural demand growth underpins a constructive long‑term outlook, even as the current supply cycle weighs on short‑term pricing.

Weather & Production Outlook

Recent assessments of Australian agriculture point to mixed weather conditions across the country, with some dry stress in parts of eastern Australia but generally manageable conditions in coastal horticultural zones. For macadamias, the most recent season benefited from largely favourable harvest weather, limiting disease pressure and field losses.

Climate‑based forecasts for the 2026 Australian macadamia crop – produced using scientific models – point to an in‑shell output that is among the highest on record, confirming industry expectations of robust volume. With large areas of young orchards still ramping up, underlying productive potential is set to increase further in coming years, reinforcing Australia’s role as a core global supplier.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For buyers (roasters, confectioners, food service): The combination of ample global supply and subdued Australian farmgate pricing favours a patient, scale‑in buying strategy. Use current market softness to secure forward coverage on high‑quality kernel and value‑added formats, focusing on suppliers with consistent grades and traceability.
• For Australian growers: With prices capped by heavy global supply, the priority is cost control and quality optimisation. Maintaining orchard best practice – nutrition, canopy management, pest and disease control – remains critical to maximising saleable kernel and maintaining preferred‑supplier status with processors.
• For processors and exporters: Margin defence lies in differentiation. Expanding value‑added ranges (roasted, flavoured, coated, paste) and deepening relationships in core Asian, US and Middle Eastern markets can offset part of the kernel price pressure and reduce exposure to single‑market policy or tariff shocks.
• Risk watch: Monitor geopolitical and trade policy developments in key importing countries, particularly the United States, where tariff structures and broader trade tensions could disrupt flows or alter relative origin competitiveness.

Short‑Term Market View (Next 3 Days)

Given the structural nature of the current oversupply and the absence of major, immediate weather or policy shocks, macadamia prices on key international exchanges and in major import hubs are likely to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with a slight downward bias in spot offers where sellers are keen to move inventory. In Europe and Northeast Asia in particular, buyers can expect continued competitive quotation levels in EUR terms, especially for standard kernel grades, while premiums for top specification and specialised value‑added products should hold relatively firm.