Australian Macadamias: Bigger 2026 Crop Meets Softer Global Prices

Australian macadamias enter 2026 with one of their largest crops on record, easing kernel tightness but adding pressure to already subdued farm-gate prices. Global supply is set to rise further, keeping near-term pricing cautious despite solid demand growth and expanding value-added uses. Australian production is rebounding strongly as young orchards mature and seasonal conditions normalize, lifting intake across major processors and restoring kernel availability. Export demand remains anchored in Asia, while diversified sales to the US, Europe and the Middle East help spread geopolitical and tariff risk. However, higher carryover in other origins and an estimated double‑digit rise in global supply temper price upside, even as long‑term demand fundamentals stay constructive.

Prices & Farm Returns

Farm-gate prices in Australia are described as "a little subdued" for 2026, reflecting a classic supply-led softening. Stronger grower returns in 2025 had allowed producers to restore orchard management standards, contributing to better yields and quality in 2026, but the current pricing environment no longer reflects the tightness seen in earlier seasons.

Global market uncertainty, changing US tariffs and higher stocks in competing origins are all featuring in 2026 price discussions. Processors note that the return to more normal kernel availability is underpinning sales opportunities, yet the combination of larger crops across key exporters and cautious buyers—especially in the US, the largest macadamia import market—limits near‑term upside at the farm level.

Supply & Demand Balance

Australian macadamia volumes are rising sharply, with sector participants indicating that 2026 could mark the country’s highest production on record as first- and second‑year harvests from new orchards are added to the regular crop. This aligns with industry forecasts of a strong rebound from the weather‑affected 2025 season, confirming a clear step‑up in Australian supply capacity.

Globally, production is projected to increase by around 15%, driven by expansion in Australia, South Africa, China and East Africa, taking world output close to 393,000 tonnes in‑shell equivalent in 2026. While structural demand growth continues for healthy snacks and plant‑based ingredients, the pace of consumption gains is currently lagging the upswing in supply, contributing to more comfortable inventories and moderating prices.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Improved 2025 grower returns have flowed into better orchard management, with producers able to fund appropriate nutrition, pest control and orchard upkeep. Combined with 2026's generally favorable weather, this has lifted on‑farm quality: reject rates are lower, nut size is more consistent, and processing yields have improved compared with the previous two years.

Export channels remain heavily skewed toward nearby Asian markets. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and China absorb the bulk of kernel and value‑added product, giving Australian processors a freight and responsiveness advantage. At the same time, shipments to the US, Europe and the Middle East support diversification and risk management, providing alternative homes when specific regions face tariff changes or demand shocks.

Geopolitics and tariffs are key swing factors. US tariff changes implemented in 2025 disrupted trade flows and pricing, particularly significant given the country’s role as the largest single macadamia importer. While some of this shock has been absorbed through market adjustment and diversification, it continues to weigh on forward price negotiations and encourages buyers to keep purchasing conservative and opportunistic.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Australia’s 2026 macadamia season benefited from largely balanced weather: not excessively wet or dry overall, though some regions did experience prolonged dry spells that reduced nut set and led to smaller nut sizes in certain varieties. Importantly, harvest weather was favorable, lowering field losses and reducing on‑farm reject nuts compared with the previous two years.

Looking ahead, eastern Australia is currently experiencing a notably wet late‑autumn pattern, with intense downpours across north‑east New South Wales and south‑east Queensland turning May into one of the wettest in decades. For macadamias, this moisture profile is broadly supportive for soil reserves ahead of flowering, but localized waterlogging and access issues could temporarily slow orchard operations if heavy rainfall persists.

🧪 Value-Added Products & Demand Drivers

Beyond raw kernel, the market is progressively shifting toward higher value segments. Australian processors are expanding into roasted, flavored, coated and diced formats, tailoring products for snack manufacturers and food service. New product development in macadamia paste targets the growing dairy alternative and ice‑cream sectors, where the nut’s creamy profile and premium image are attractive to brand owners.

Globally, macadamia‑based ingredients—including oils and pastes—are expected to be among the fastest‑growing segments of the nut category, supported by their health halo and versatility in cosmetics, bakery and plant‑based dairy. While this underpins the medium‑ to long‑term demand outlook, the near‑term challenge remains absorbing a rapidly expanding in‑shell supply without triggering deeper price corrections.

Market Outlook & Trading Strategy

In the short term, the macadamia market is navigating a transition from tightness to relative abundance. With Australian and global crops both significantly larger and some carryover stocks still present, 2026 is shaping up as a buyer‑friendly year on volume, though not necessarily on logistics or policy risk. Prices are likely to remain under gentle downward pressure at farm level, while kernel and value‑added product prices stabilize as buyers test the depth of demand at lower levels.

• Growers: Focus on quality differentiation and delivery timing. High‑quality kernel and well‑graded NIS should continue to command premiums even in a softer market. Consider forward contracts with trusted processors to secure baseline returns while retaining some exposure to potential late‑season price recovery.
• Processors: Use the current supply abundance to lock in long‑term contracts with key customers in Asia, the US and Europe, emphasizing reliability and traceability. Expanding capacity in value‑added lines (roasted, flavored, paste) can help capture margin as bulk kernel prices soften.
• Importers & buyers: 2026 offers a window to diversify origin mix and secure multi‑origin supply at competitive prices. However, keep an eye on tariff policies—especially in the US—and currency movements, which could quickly change landed cost calculations.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR Basis)

There is no major fundamental data release expected in the next three days that would materially change the macadamia balance. With harvest well underway and supply perceptions firmly bearish to neutral, price action on key export kernels and NIS contracts is likely to remain broadly steady in EUR terms, with a mild downward bias where sellers are motivated by storage and cash‑flow needs.

• Europe (imported kernel, spot, EUR/kg): Sideways to slightly softer as buyers test lower bids against plentiful offers.
• Asia (CIF kernel, EUR/kg equivalent): Largely stable; strategic buyers continue to layer in coverage on dips, limiting short‑term downside.
• US (CIF kernel, EUR/kg equivalent): Modestly pressured by tariff uncertainty and strong global supply, though quality premiums remain intact.