Kenyan Organic Macadamias Hold Firm as Global Supplies Build

Kenyan organic macadamia kernel prices are holding steady around the mid‑20s EUR/kg FOB, supported by tight farmer selling and a policy push toward processed exports, even as global production expands. Buyers face little immediate upside risk, but any renewed policy moves on Kenyan in‑shell exports or weaker Chinese demand could cap further gains. Kenya is entering the core macadamia marketing window with processors focused on kernels rather than in‑shell exports after government restrictions on raw nut shipments and a shift to value addition. While global macadamia output continues to rise, especially in China, South Africa and Australia, demand growth is uneven and inventories remain comfortable. For now, Kenyan offers look competitive and relatively stable, but currency volatility and logistics costs remain key watchpoints for the coming weeks.

Prices

Quoted levels for organic macadamia nut kernels from Kenya on an FOB basis are around EUR 25.0/kg, with limited evidence of sharp week‑on‑week moves. This aligns with a broader environment of subdued nut prices as global supply continues to increase faster than consumption in 2026, putting a ceiling on any aggressive rally in kernel values.

Supply & Demand

Global macadamia production in 2026 is projected to reach nearly 393,000 tonnes in‑shell equivalent, up strongly from 2025, with notable growth in China, South Africa, Australia and Kenya. This expanding supply base keeps buyers in a comfortable position, even as some origins report localised weather and cost pressures.

Kenya has actively discouraged exports of raw in‑shell nuts to promote domestic cracking and kernel exports, maintaining an emphasis on processed shipments even into 2026. At the same time, profit pressure at diversified Kenyan agri‑firms highlights how drought and higher costs have squeezed margins in tea, coffee, macadamia and avocado operations earlier in the year, encouraging disciplined procurement and cautious selling strategies.

Weather & Growing Conditions (Kenya)

Recent national forecasts indicate that central highland counties such as Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu and Meru are in their cool, cloudy season with frequent light to moderate showers and generally mild daytime temperatures. These conditions are broadly favourable for tree crops like macadamias, supporting nut filling and tree health after earlier dry spells, while limiting immediate weather‑related price risk.

No severe weather disruptions have been reported in the core macadamia belt over the past few days, and transport infrastructure is functioning normally. With harvesting for processing already under way, weather in the very short term is more relevant for drying operations and logistics than for yield formation, implying limited short‑term impact on FOB price levels.

Fundamentals & Policy

On the demand side, China’s broader economy continues to show mixed signals, with exports supporting activity while domestic demand and consumer prices remain subdued. This tempers expectations for a sharp rebound in discretionary snack demand, limiting upside for macadamia kernels into key Asian markets.

Kenyan authorities remain focused on promoting value‑added nut exports, with previous directives clarifying that processed kernels deliver greater returns than raw in‑shell trade. Together with rising world production, this suggests a market where competition between origins is intense and buyers can secure kernels without paying large premiums for organic product, at least in the near term.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Current Kenyan organic kernel prices near EUR 25/kg FOB look broadly fair in a well‑supplied global market. Consider covering near‑term needs but avoid over‑committing far forward while global inventories and Chinese demand remain uncertain.
• Producers/exporters in Kenya: With policy favouring processed exports and external demand only moderately strong, focus on quality differentiation (organic, traceability) rather than price increases. Manage FX and logistics risk carefully, as margins remain tight.
• Traders: The balance of risks over the next few weeks appears sideways to mildly softer, barring any abrupt policy changes or weather shock. Prioritise flexible contracts and spreads between origins rather than directional bets on higher prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (FOB, EUR)

• Mombasa, Kenya (FOB kernels): Sideways bias expected over the next three days, with offers likely to remain clustered around the mid‑20s EUR/kg for organic kernels, given stable weather, functioning logistics and comfortable global supply.
• Key export destinations (CIF Europe/Asia): Freight and insurance remain the main variables, but no immediate shocks are visible over the next three days; landed prices should track FOB levels closely, adjusted for transport, with a neutral near‑term outlook.