Kenyan Organic Macadamia FOB Prices Hold Firm Amid Policy Shift

Organic macadamia kernel export offers from Kenya are holding flat around EUR 23.0–23.5/kg FOB, with buyers pausing to digest a fresh policy shift that temporarily allows raw nut exports. Near‑term prices look stable but increasingly two‑tiered between certified organic kernels and bulk in‑shell flows. Kenya’s macadamia season is now in full swing after harvesting was officially reopened earlier in the year, and export activity is being reshaped by the government’s surprise one‑year suspension of the long‑standing ban on raw nut exports, announced on 2 July 2026. Processors are trying to protect kernel values and capacity utilisation, while traders eye short‑term arbitrage into Asia. Weather across key highland growing zones (Nyeri, Meru, Kirinyaga) is seasonally cool and mostly dry, supporting quality and logistics. Globally, ample 2026 crops in China, South Africa and Australia keep a lid on upside, but niche organic Kenyan kernels remain comparatively tight.

Prices

Current export offers for organic macadamia kernels (Kenya origin, FOB Mombasa) are broadly steady versus late June, with no marked week‑on‑week change despite the regulatory news and ongoing global oversupply in conventional product. Domestic wholesale prices for macadamia nuts in Kenya are indicated around USD 10.5/kg (≈EUR 9.6/kg) at retail level, implying a still‑comfortable margin for value‑added kernel exports over the internal market.

The key near‑term price driver is policy rather than weather: the temporary lifting of the ban on raw macadamia exports is expected to raise farmgate bids for in‑shell nuts, but processors are initially resisting downward pressure on kernel offer levels as they work through existing contracts and stocks.

Supply & Demand

Kenya’s 2026 macadamia crop is estimated to grow modestly versus 2025, to roughly 52,000 tonnes in‑shell equivalent, keeping the country among the top four global producers. Earlier this year, authorities reopened harvesting after a seasonal closure designed to protect nut maturity, confirming that a significant share of the crop had reached acceptable quality.

On the demand side, global macadamia consumption continues to expand but at a slower pace than supply. Recent industry data highlight strong production growth in China, South Africa and Australia for the 2026 season, adding to overall availability and capping upside for conventional kernels. Buyers in Europe and Asia remain price‑sensitive, favouring discounts and mixed‑nut applications, while high‑spec organic kernels from Kenya still command a premium but face tighter specifications and longer sales cycles.

The Kenyan government’s 2 July decision to suspend, for one year, the long‑standing prohibition on raw macadamia exports aims to “stabilise prices” at farm level after complaints about low farmgate returns. This move is likely to redirect part of the 2026 crop into in‑shell export channels, particularly to Asia, slightly reducing kernel throughput at domestic processors but supporting grower prices and possibly tightening high‑quality kernel availability later in the marketing year.

Fundamentals & Weather

Industry statistics for 2026 point to a structurally long global market, with world macadamia output projected close to 393,000 tonnes in‑shell, up markedly from 2025. Within this, Kenya’s share remains significant but is overshadowed by surging Chinese and South African crops, reinforcing Kenya’s strategic focus on quality, certification and niche segments such as organic kernels.

Weather in Kenya’s main macadamia belts (Nyeri, Meru, Kirinyaga) over the next few days is forecast to be seasonally cool and mostly dry to lightly showery, with daytime highs in the mid‑20s °C and cool nights. These conditions are favourable for post‑harvest handling and drying, with low immediate risk of widespread quality losses. Broader outlooks had flagged elevated chances of wetter‑than‑normal conditions linked to El Niño during May–July, but so far, field‑relevant disruptions in the core highland macadamia zones remain limited.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Flat to mildly firm kernels: Over the next 1–2 weeks, organic Kenyan kernel prices are expected to remain broadly stable in EUR terms, with a mild upward bias if raw in‑shell export competition tightens nut supply to processors.
• Watch policy implementation: Traders should monitor how quickly export licences for raw nuts are issued and whether any logistical bottlenecks at Mombasa emerge, as these could temporarily support kernel premiums.
• Quality differentiation: Buyers may find selective opportunities in smaller processors needing cashflow, but should maintain strict moisture and defect specs, as competition for better‑grade nuts intensifies once raw exporters become fully active.
• Currency and freight: With a volatile KES and still‑elevated freight costs on some Asia–EU routes, locking in EUR‑denominated FOB contracts with freight options can help manage margin risk.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• FOB Mombasa – organic kernels: Sideways; indicative range ≈EUR 23.0–23.5/kg, no major movement expected in the next three trading days.
• Domestic wholesale (converted to kernel equivalent): Stable; farmgate and local prices supported by new raw export channel, but impact on kernel offers to remain limited in the very near term.