Kenyan Organic Macadamias: Flat FOB but Upside Risk if Demand Rebounds

Kenyan organic macadamia kernel FOB prices are flat around the mid‑20s EUR/kg, with no clear weekly move, as strong global supply is offset by steady demand from Europe and recovering interest in China. Short‑term risks are skewed mildly to the upside if buyers move to lock quality volumes ahead of Q4. Kenya’s macadamia sector is trading into a globally well‑supplied but structurally growing market. Recent industry updates highlight a record or near‑record 2026 world crop, led by larger outputs in Australia, South Africa and China, while demand in snacks and confectionery continues to trend higher. Locally, Kenya remains constrained by the ongoing ban on raw in‑shell exports, forcing nuts through domestic processors and capping farm‑gate prices despite firm kernel export values. Weather in key central highland growing areas is seasonally cool with light showers, supportive for tree condition and post‑harvest handling.

Prices

Export offers for certified organic macadamia nut kernels from Kenya are broadly steady around the mid‑20s EUR/kg FOB, in line with recent market commentary pointing to stable mid‑20s EUR/kg for top‑grade organic kernels. Local reporting also indicates Kenyan macadamia products trading competitively on global routes, with Kenya‑to‑EU macadamia lanes quoted in a tight, slightly firmer range over recent weeks.

Despite reports of low farm‑gate prices for in‑shell nuts in Kenya, export‑grade organic kernel offers have not followed those levels lower. The margin between raw nut and processed kernel prices remains favourable for processors, who benefit from strong value retention at the FOB stage.

Supply & Demand

Latest global market assessments project strong macadamia production growth in 2026, driven mainly by China, South Africa and Australia, pushing world supply close to 400,000 tonnes in‑shell equivalent. Australian industry forecasters, for example, recently revised their 2026 crop up to around 56,900 tonnes in‑shell, reinforcing the oversupply narrative.

On the demand side, analysts still expect robust medium‑term growth, supported by health‑oriented snacking, bakery and confectionery uses, with the global macadamia market projected to grow at roughly high‑single‑digit CAGR through 2030. However, near‑term buying remains selective, and elevated inventories in some import markets are encouraging buyers to focus on premium grades and certifications, including organic, rather than aggressively expanding volumes.

In Kenya, the re‑imposed ban on raw in‑shell exports channels supply through domestic processing plants, limiting farmers’ access to higher overseas bids and contributing to complaints about low local prices. This policy effectively ensures a steady flow of raw material to kernel exporters, underpinning current FOB price stability for organic product.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Kenya)

Key Kenyan macadamia regions in the Central Highlands (Nyeri, Embu and surrounding counties) are experiencing cool, mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent light showers. Forecasts for July 25–27 indicate daytime highs around 22–26°C and lows near 13–16°C, with occasional drizzle or spot showers.

These conditions are broadly favourable for tree health and off‑season maintenance, with no acute heat or drought stress expected in the coming three days. Slightly damp mornings may require attention to drying and storage of any remaining nuts, but no weather‑driven disruption to export logistics is signalled in the short term.

Market Fundamentals

• Global balance: Recent statistical updates point to a sizeable global surplus, with world production in 2026 significantly above 2025 levels, mainly on larger Asian and Southern Hemisphere crops.
• Kenya’s role: Kenya remains among the top producers, with exports increasingly focused on shelled kernels after the reinstated ban on in‑shell shipments, supporting value addition but depressing farm‑gate returns.
• Price transmission: Farmers have recently protested that local processors pay below what they see as fair market‑aligned rates for in‑shell nuts, while export kernel prices remain relatively firm, revealing uneven distribution of export value along the chain.
• Demand segments: Premium confectionery, bakery and snack applications continue to prefer reliable, certified organic kernels, where Kenya has a competitive niche despite stiff competition from South Africa and Australia.

Trading Outlook

• Exporters/Processors: With FOB organic kernel prices stable around the mid‑20s EUR/kg and favourable raw‑material spreads, consider locking in medium‑term contracts on high‑quality lots while maintaining some flexibility in case global oversupply pressures re‑emerge later in the year.
• Importers/Roasters: Current Kenyan offers are competitive versus other origin organics; stagger purchases over the coming weeks, using any dips triggered by aggressive selling from oversupplied origins to top up Q4 coverage.
• Growers (Kenya): In the short term, focus on quality (moisture, defect rates) to capture premium kernel returns through contracts with reputable processors, while engaging with cooperatives and policy channels to narrow the gap between farm‑gate and export values.

3‑Day Price Direction Snapshot (FOB, EUR)

• Kenya organic kernels, export grade: ~25.1 EUR/kg FOB – bias: sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days, supported by steady demand and favourable processor margins, with global oversupply limiting any sharp upside.
• Global benchmark kernels (mixed origins): Stable in a broad range roughly equivalent to low‑20s to mid‑20s EUR/kg for standard grades; no major short‑term catalyst for a breakout given comfortable supply.