Kenyan Organic Macadamias Hold Firm as Global Supply Rises

Kenyan organic macadamia kernel export prices are stable around EUR 23–24/kg FOB, with no clear week‑on‑week move, despite a record 2026 global crop and softer farm‑gate in‑shell prices. Macadamia markets are navigating a classic mid‑season balance: global production is expanding sharply in Australia, South Africa and Kenya, yet demand from the US, EU and Asia remains resilient enough to prevent a price slide. Recent Kenyan farm‑gate in‑shell prices have stabilised after years of volatility, while export unit values are edging higher on strong kernel demand and tighter quality standards. Weather in Kenya’s central highlands has turned seasonally drier after heavy rains earlier in the year, easing immediate supply risk but keeping quality in focus. With kernel buyers well covered for nearby needs but wary of over‑stocking, prices for premium organic kernels look anchored in a narrow range in the very short term.

Prices

FOB offers for organic macadamia nut kernels from Kenya are indicated around EUR 23–24/kg, effectively flat over the past week with no visible change in posted levels.

Kenyan export unit values for macadamias have been reported near USD 8.3/kg for recent shipments, equivalent to roughly EUR 7.6–7.8/kg at the border for mixed qualities, while higher-priced organic kernels command a notable premium over this blended export average.

At farm level, Kenyan in‑shell prices in 2026 have stabilised roughly in the KES 130–200/kg band depending on quality, translating to approximately EUR 0.90–1.40/kg, suggesting comfortable crushing margins for processors at current FOB kernel values.

Supply & Demand

Global macadamia supply in 2026 is set to reach a fresh record, with world production projected near 393,000 tonnes in‑shell, up strongly year‑on‑year. Major gains are expected in Australia, South Africa and Kenya, with Kenya’s crop estimated around 51,850 tonnes, about 9% higher than the previous season.

Australia alone is forecast to produce roughly 59,000 tonnes in‑shell this year, supporting abundant kernel availability for export buyers. Kenya’s higher volumes coincide with continued orchard expansion, especially of higher‑yielding Murang’a 20 varieties favoured by exporters for better kernel recovery.

On the demand side, the US remains a structural net importer of shelled macadamias, with April 2026 imports of HS 080262 valued around USD 6.3 million, indicating solid underlying pull from confectionery and snack sectors. EU import data for nuts highlight brisk trade flows, with China and the US standing out as leading global demand centres for tree nuts more broadly, helping to absorb higher macadamia supplies.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Kenya Focus)

Kenya’s central highlands and Rift Valley experienced episodes of heavy rainfall and localised flooding earlier in 2026, including advisories for intense rain in the highlands that temporarily raised disease and quality concerns for perennial crops.

The latest agrometeorological bulletin for June indicates a transition to seasonally drier conditions in many key highland zones, with authorities advising farmers to protect crops and seedlings against residual cool and wet spells but not flagging acute stress for tree crops such as macadamias.

For the next few days, no major disruptive weather events are indicated for the main macadamia‑growing counties. This suggests limited short‑term yield risk, shifting market focus from volume uncertainty to post‑harvest handling and kernel quality as prices drivers.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Structurally, macadamias remain in a multi‑year expansion phase, with planted area and tree maturity profiles in Australia, South Africa, Kenya and emerging producers such as Guatemala and Vietnam pointing to continued growth in global supply through the late 2020s.

Investment interest remains robust, illustrated by high‑profile capital flows into Australian macadamia orchards from large corporate and technology players seeking both food and carbon‑benefit assets. While this underpins long‑term supply, it also raises the bar for Kenyan producers to differentiate on organic certification, quality and traceability.

On the demand side, macroeconomic indicators point to moderate but uneven growth in consumer purchasing power. Recent trade data show that the US and China continue to dominate tree nut import demand, while global trade in high‑value food continues to expand despite broader economic uncertainty. This combination of ample supply and steady demand biases the macadamia balance toward comfortable availability rather than shortage.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Processors in Kenya: With farm‑gate in‑shell prices relatively low versus FOB kernel values, consider locking in raw nut supply where quality meets export standards, while avoiding over‑extension on lower‑grade material that may struggle in a saturated kernel market.
• Exporters: Maintain offer levels in the current EUR 23–24/kg FOB range for certified organic kernels, but stay flexible on nearby shipments for volume buyers, as the record global crop limits upside in the short term.
• Importers in EU/US: Use current stability to secure Q3–Q4 coverage, focusing on origin diversification (Kenya plus at least one Southern Hemisphere source) to hedge against any localised weather or logistics disruptions.

3‑Day Price Direction (Indicative, EUR)

• Kenya, FOB Mombasa – organic kernels: Stable in a ~EUR 23–24/kg range over the next three days, with a neutral bias as buyers and sellers wait for clearer signals from Northern Hemisphere demand.
• EU landed, Kenyan conventional kernels: Broadly steady around single‑digit EUR/kg levels for bulk conventional grades, tracking recent export unit values and freight costs, with no immediate catalyst for sharp moves.