Kenyan Organic Macadamia FOB Prices Edge Higher on Tight Kernel Supply
Kenyan organic macadamia kernel prices move slightly above EUR 25/kg FOB as cool‑dry weather supports quality and export supply stays focused on kernels.
Prices
FOB offers for organic macadamia nut kernels (Kenya origin) are currently indicated around EUR 25.1/kg, up slightly from roughly EUR 25.0/kg a week earlier. The move is small in absolute terms but confirms a gradual firming trend after several weeks of sideways pricing.
Domestic reference data for nuts show Kenya’s nut complex has seen year‑on‑year price gains of over 40% in local currency, with macadamia among the higher‑value products, reinforcing the firmer export parity in EUR terms.
Supply & Demand
Kenya’s macadamia sector is still adjusting to the government’s tightened restrictions on raw (in‑shell) exports, which were extended through early 2026 and have reduced direct shipments of unshelled nuts to markets like China. This policy channels more nuts into domestic cracking, boosting kernel availability but also depressing farm‑gate prices compared with potential in‑shell realizations.
Quarterly statistics from the Agriculture and Food Authority confirm a strong shift toward shelled macadamia exports and a sharp drop in in‑shell volumes, locking Kenya deeper into the value‑added kernel segment. Local market data point to generally higher nut prices across categories this July, suggesting resilient domestic and export demand despite policy frictions.
Weather & Crop Conditions (Kenya, Central Highlands)
In key macadamia counties around Nyeri, current daily highs are in the 19–22°C range with cool nights near 14°C, under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and limited rainfall. This pattern is consistent with the national July 2026 outlook, which calls for near‑average to slightly below‑average rainfall over much of central Kenya during the cool season.
These conditions are broadly favourable for post‑harvest drying and storage of nuts already picked, reducing mould risk and supporting quality premiums for organic kernels. No acute short‑term weather threat is visible for the next few days in Nyeri and surrounding highland zones, keeping supply risks limited in the immediate term.
Fundamentals & Policy Drivers
Government discussion about possibly revisiting the raw macadamia export ban continues, with industry groups lobbying for more flexible rules to capture in‑shell demand in Asia. For now, there is no fresh official change in the last few days, so exporters remain constrained to kernels and other processed formats.
Given the policy backdrop and stronger domestic nut price indices, kernel exporters face narrowing margins but also a relatively secure supply base, as farmers have limited alternative outlets for raw nuts. This configuration tends to cap downside for FOB kernel prices while still allowing only modest upside unless external demand (notably from the EU and East Asia) accelerates sharply.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication
- Short‑term bias: mildly bullish. The small uptick above EUR 25/kg and tight alternative marketing options for raw nuts point to a gently firmer market.
- Growers: consider phased selling of high‑quality organic kernels rather than rushing volumes, as stable weather and policy constraints favour steady to slightly higher prices.
- Buyers (EU/importers): use current levels near EUR 25–25.5/kg FOB as an opportunity to secure medium‑term coverage before any policy relaxation on in‑shell exports introduces new competition for raw material.
Over the next three days (11–13 July 2026), with stable cool‑dry conditions in central Kenya and no major policy headlines expected, Kenyan FOB organic macadamia kernel indications are likely to remain in a narrow range around EUR 25.0–25.3/kg, with low probability of sharp moves in either direction.