Cashew Kernels Hold Steady as RCN Season Winds Down

Cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are broadly stable with a slightly softer tone as the African raw cashew nut (RCN) season winds down and offshore demand remains cautious. Margins for processors are thin, and limited nearby buying interest suggests only mild downside rather than a sharp correction over the coming days. The cashew market is entering a quieter phase after a firm first quarter marked by strong Vietnamese export growth and increased EU import volumes. Recent reports highlight low kernel prices and selective RCN procurement by processors in both Vietnam and India, reflecting careful margin management in the face of high freight and raw material costs. Weather conditions in key hubs (New Delhi, Hanoi, Dordrecht) are seasonally warm to hot but not currently disruptive for processing or logistics. Overall, prices look range‑bound in the very short term, with buyers maintaining a wait‑and‑see stance.

Prices & Spreads (all converted to EUR)

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for late May 2026, recent offers translate into the following price structure for key origins and grades (FOB/FCA main hubs, 30 May 2026):

External market commentary points to Vietnamese WW320 FOB offers around 7.05–7.20 USD/kg earlier in May, slightly above the latest indications in Hanoi, suggesting that recent spot business has been concluded at the lower end of the recent range. Indian wholesale ranges for kernels remain competitive but show no strong upward momentum, in line with subdued global buying.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam continues to dominate global cashew kernel exports, with early-2026 data showing strong year-on-year growth in shipments and higher agro‑export revenues overall. However, the industry has recently cut its 2026 export target, citing higher raw material and freight costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that clouds demand visibility in some markets.

Recent trade analysis notes that, despite higher imports by the EU in early 2026, offshore buyers are now more cautious, limiting forward coverage and focusing on nearby needs only. Processors in Vietnam and India are therefore buying African RCN more selectively, to avoid locking in costly raw material against low kernel prices, which keeps supply adequate but prevents aggressive discounting.

In destination markets such as the Netherlands, kernel inventories are reported to be comfortable, helped by strong shipments from Vietnam earlier in the year. This, combined with soft retail demand across parts of Europe, explains the mild easing in FCA prices in Dordrecht.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

Fundamental balances for 2025/26 continue to show ample global RCN availability, with particularly large crops projected in West Africa, while Vietnam and India remain the key processing hubs. The main near‑term constraint is not supply but processing margins and end‑user demand, both of which are under pressure from high logistics and financing costs.

Weather over the next three days in New Delhi is hot and mostly dry, with highs rising from about 32°C to near 37°C, consistent with the broader 2026 South Asian heatwave but without immediate impact on the current kernel stock position. Hanoi faces hot conditions around 37–38°C with risk of isolated thunderstorms, typical for the season and not yet disruptive for plant operations or port logistics. Dordrecht should see mild early‑summer weather, 20–23°C with some showers, which may briefly slow local handling but is unlikely to affect availability in any material way.

Short-Term Market View & Trading Ideas

Market commentary from late May suggests that the cashew market is drifting slightly softer as the African RCN season winds down, but with no signs of a sharp correction; prices are expected to remain relatively quiet in the very short term. On the demand side, EU and US buyers appear adequately covered for nearby needs, while Chinese demand remains an important but more volatile outlet for Vietnamese exporters.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers (EU, NL focus): Consider staggered buying on any additional dips in FCA Dordrecht WW320, as current levels sit towards the lower end of the recent range and origin prices show limited downside room given thin processor margins.
• Origin sellers (IN, VN): Prioritize nearby shipment contracts and avoid deep forward discounts; with RCN costs still elevated, aggressive price cuts risk locking in negative margins if demand rebounds later in Q3.
• RCN traders: With processors in India and Vietnam buying hand‑to‑mouth, be cautious about holding large unsold positions; focus on quality differentiation and prompt execution to capture any spot premiums.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only, in EUR)

• India (IN, New Delhi, FOB kernels): Sideways to slightly softer bias (−0.5% to 0%) as export demand is steady but unspectacular and RCN costs limit scope for discounts.
• Vietnam (VN, Hanoi, FOB kernels): Mostly stable (−0.5% to +0.5%); strong year‑to‑date exports but current offshore buying is cautious, leading to a tight range around recent levels.
• Netherlands (NL, Dordrecht, FCA kernels): Mildly soft (−1% to 0%) on comfortable stocks and a quiet spot market, though deeper downside is constrained by firm origin replacement costs.