Barley Market: Flat SFE Curve, Softer Black Sea Cash and Weather Risk Ahead

Barley prices are broadly soft but stable, with a flat Australian SFE feed barley curve and easing Black Sea cash values, while Ukrainian export flows remain constrained. Near-term downside appears limited, yet upside will depend on weather during Northern Hemisphere harvest and any further disruption to Black Sea logistics. Feed barley markets are in a quiet transition phase from old to new crop. The Australian SFE feed barley strip from July 2026 to May 2027 is essentially flat around AUD 310–320/t, signalling a balanced forward outlook and no immediate supply squeeze. In the physical market, Black Sea and EU feed barley offers are edging lower in EUR terms, helped by comfortable global cereal supplies and weaker demand. At the same time, Ukrainian barley exports have fallen year-on-year, and the security situation around Ukrainian ports keeps a layer of logistical risk in the system.

Prices

The SFE feed barley strip shows minimal price differentiation along the curve: July 2026 trades at AUD 310/t, rising only to AUD 320/t by May 2027, before further out maturities at AUD 336/t in January 2028 and January 2029. All contracts were unchanged on June 19, 2026, with no traded volume, underlining a very calm futures environment.

Converted at roughly 1 AUD = 0.60 EUR, the July–May strip implies about 186–192 EUR/t, indicating that Australian forward values sit modestly above current Black Sea cash levels. Recent offers for Ukrainian feed barley seeds for feed and cattle use range around 0.19–0.20 EUR/kg FCA/FOB (190–200 EUR/t equivalent), with a slight softening in inland FCA prices since early June. German EXW feed barley indications around 0.185 EUR/kg (185 EUR/t) have been stable since mid-June.

Supply & Demand

On the export side, Ukrainian grain shipments in 2025/26 have reached almost 36 million tonnes by June 19, about 10% below last season. Barley exports in particular are down roughly 35% year-on-year to about 1.5 million tonnes, confirming barley’s weaker role in the country’s export mix and the impact of competition and logistics constraints.  

Despite the drop in barley exports, Ukrainian seaborne flows remain significant: from January to mid-June 2026, over 20 million tonnes of grain have moved through Ukrainian ports, thanks to the functioning maritime corridor, even under ongoing security threats.   This suggests that while barley faces a relative demand and liquidity challenge versus wheat and corn, overall Black Sea availability to world markets remains ample.

Fundamentals & Weather

Globally, barley fundamentals sit within a generally tighter cereal balance highlighted by recent agribusiness outlooks, yet without acute shortage signals. The initial 2026/27 outlook points to lower overall cereal production and historically low corn stocks, providing some underlying support to feed grain prices, including barley.   At the same time, Europe and the Black Sea still report adequate stocks and strong export competition in feed grains.

Weather-wise, early summer heat in parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans is accelerating harvest readiness but also raises stress risks for spring crops.   In North America, seeding of barley is largely complete in key Canadian provinces, and crop condition ratings are generally good, supporting expectations of normal to above-normal supplies if weather remains cooperative.   In the U.S., persistent drought pockets need monitoring but are not yet a decisive factor for global barley balances.  

Outlook & Trading View

The flat SFE feed barley curve combined with softer Black Sea cash indications suggests a sideways-to-slightly-weak price bias into the Northern Hemisphere harvest, barring major weather or geopolitical shocks. Old crop trading activity is limited, with attention gradually shifting to new crop availability and demand from key importers in the Middle East and Asia.

Logistical and geopolitical risks around the Black Sea corridor remain a key wild card. Continued attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure could curb effective export capacity and temporarily support FOB prices, but current evidence still points to resilient grain flows and strong competition from Russia and the EU.  

Trading recommendations

• Feed producers / importers: Use current softness in Black Sea and EU cash prices (circa 185–200 EUR/t) to extend coverage into Q3–Q4 2026, especially where barley competes with corn and wheat in rations.
• Producers in Europe & Black Sea: Given the flat forward curve and weaker Ukrainian export data, consider scaling in hedges or forward sales on weather-driven rallies rather than at current levels.
• Merchants: Watch Black Sea logistics and Chinese demand signals; any renewed Chinese interest in Ukrainian or Australian barley could briefly tighten spreads and open short-term origination and spread opportunities.

3-day price indication (directional)

• Black Sea (FOB feed barley, Odesa): Around 0.19–0.20 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer amid harvest pressure.
• Germany (EXW feed barley): Around 0.185 EUR/kg, bias: stable with mild downside risk if harvest weather stays favourable.
• Australia (SFE feed barley futures): Equivalent to roughly 186–192 EUR/t along the curve, bias: sideways, tracking global feed grain sentiment.