Jordan’s 60,000 t barley buy anchors prices as import demand stays firm

Jordan’s latest purchase of 60,000 t of feed barley at roughly €235/t CIF for September delivery underlines steady MENA import demand and sustained competition among major global exporters, helping to put a floor under international feed barley values. Nearby Black Sea and EU-origin offers remain competitive, while spot physical prices in Europe and Ukraine are edging slightly softer but still reflect tightness in old-crop supplies. Jordan’s state grain buyer secured the volume from Olam at USD 252/t C&F for first-half September 2026 shipment after attracting offers from a broad field of global traders, including CHS, Cofco, Ameropa, Bunge and Solaris. The decision signals that Jordan is locking in feed barley ahead of peak livestock demand in early autumn, contrasting with its more cautious, recently re‑tendered wheat buying strategy. For exporters, the tender confirms that the MENA feed complex continues to absorb volume at current price levels.

Prices & Tender Signals

Jordan’s purchase was concluded at USD 252/t C&F, with competing offers clustered within a relatively narrow band: CHS at USD 255.68/t, Cofco at USD 257.50/t, Ameropa at USD 259.95/t, and Bunge and Solaris above USD 264/t. This tight spread confirms strong competition among global suppliers for MENA business and suggests that international feed barley is currently clearing near the lower 250s USD/t C&F for September positions.

Converted into euros (assuming ~0.93 EUR/USD), Jordan’s purchase price is about EUR 235/t C&F. This aligns with firm but not extreme price levels compared with previous Jordanian barley purchases in recent seasons, indicating a market that is neither in acute shortage nor oversupplied, but where importers are keen to secure coverage before potential seasonal or logistical disruptions.

Supply, Demand & Jordan’s Role

Jordan is a regular buyer of feed barley to support its livestock sector, and the latest 60,000 t purchase confirms that its demand for imported feed grains remains structurally steady. The tender sought shipment windows spanning September–October, but the winning cargo will ship in the first half of September, effectively front‑loading coverage ahead of peak seasonal feed requirements.

This timing also gives Jordan flexibility: securing barley now reduces the need to chase the market later in Q4 if weather or freight disruptions tighten supply. The country’s continued presence in barley tenders, even as it has recently opted to re‑tender wheat to seek better prices, underscores the importance of barley in its feed mix and the relative attractiveness of current barley values versus alternative feed grains.

Fundamentals & Regional Price Structure

The tender outcome confirms that optional‑origin feed barley for September delivery into the eastern Mediterranean is competitive around the mid‑EUR 230s/t C&F, while inland and FOB origins in the EU and Black Sea are trading at a noticeable discount to this CIF level. German EXW feed barley around EUR 181/t and Ukrainian FCA values between EUR 210–220/t leave room for freight and margins into MENA destinations at prices close to Jordan’s purchase level.

Recent easing in Ukrainian FCA prices (roughly EUR 10/t lower than late May for comparable feed quality) suggests some softening pressure from new‑crop expectations and persistent export competition. However, the fact that multiple major houses were still willing to offer barley to Jordan above USD 255/t C&F indicates that exporters are cautious about further downside, especially with logistics, insurance and freight risks still embedded in Black Sea and broader global trade flows.

Weather & Risk Factors

Weather across key barley‑producing regions in the EU and Black Sea remains a central risk for the coming months. Early summer conditions are being closely watched, particularly for any episodes of heat or dryness that could cap yield potential and shift the balance in favor of firmer prices into Q4. While no major weather shock has yet translated into an immediate price spike, importers like Jordan are clearly hedging against this risk by fixing volumes for September.

Additional macro factors—such as energy prices, freight rates and regional security developments—could still swing barley values. Jordan’s willingness to buy barley now, while simultaneously re‑tendering wheat to possibly capture softer prices, highlights that feed barley is seen as relatively well‑priced in today’s risk environment, but that upside price risk later in the season cannot be ruled out.

Trading & Procurement Outlook

• Importers (MENA / Levant): Consider securing at least partial Q4 feed barley coverage at or near current levels, especially for nearby September–October positions, as Jordan’s tender shows that large volumes can still clear around the mid‑EUR 230s/t C&F.
• Exporters (EU / Black Sea): Maintain offer discipline; the clustering of offers above USD 255/t indicates room to defend margins, particularly if weather or freight risks intensify into late summer.
• Feed compounders: Monitor relative pricing versus maize and other feed grains; current barley values remain competitive for ration inclusion, but any sharp weather‑driven rally in one component could quickly change substitution economics.

3‑Day Price Indication (Direction)

• EU (Germany, EXW feed barley): Around EUR 180–185/t; bias: slightly softer to sideways as new‑crop expectations weigh.
• Ukraine (FCA Odesa / Kyiv feed barley): Around EUR 210–220/t; bias: mildly softer but underpinned by export demand into MENA.
• MENA CIF (e.g., Jordan, feed barley Sept): Implied around EUR 230–240/t based on the latest tender; bias: broadly sideways with modest upside risk if weather or logistics worsen.