Barley Market Holds Firm as EU Prices Diverge from Global Softness
Barley market analysis: flat Australian futures, firm German EXW prices, softer Black Sea FOB, EU export slowdown and outlook for late September 2026.
Prices
On the Sydney Futures Exchange, Australian feed barley futures were unchanged on September 22, with all listed contracts settling flat on zero volume, underlining a lack of fresh directional impetus:
| Contract | Settlement (AUD/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 315.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 2027 | 298.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 2027 | 300.00 | 0.00 |
| May 2027 | 303.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 2027 | 303.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 2027 | 303.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 2028 | 315.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 2029 | 315.00 | 0.00 |
In the physical EU market, German feed-grade barley seeds (EXW Drentwede, moisture 14% max, origin DE) last changed on September 21 at 0.227 EUR/kg EXW, unchanged from the previous quote, consolidating modest gains seen earlier in September. Ukrainian origins remain significantly cheaper: Kyiv FCA at 0.15 EUR/kg, Odesa FCA at 0.16 EUR/kg, and Odesa FOB cattle‑feed barley at 0.14 EUR/kg, all steady in mid‑September after a small downward adjustment on FOB values.
Global export benchmarks show a mildly softer tone. French barley at Rouen is assessed around the upper‑250s USD/mt, down about 3–4% week on week, while Black Sea feed barley hovers just above 200 USD/mt FOB with a slight uptick, and Australian FOB values remain the most expensive among the main origins. EU feed barley price indicators around 175 EUR/mt for September confirm that local values remain supported versus global export offers.
Supply & Demand
At the global level, barley balances remain comfortable but not burdensome. The latest EU estimates for 2026/27 point to total barley production slightly above 52 million tonnes, with total domestic use around 46 million tonnes and exports projected in the 7–10 million tonne range, depending on the forecaster. Stocks are expected to tighten modestly versus last year but remain adequate to avoid any imminent supply squeeze.
Early-season EU export data show a near 40% year-on-year drop in barley shipments between July 1 and mid‑September, to about 1.7 million tonnes. The primary drag is a sharp decline in Chinese buying, which has fallen by roughly 780 thousand tonnes versus last year’s pace and now accounts for only about 5% of EU barley exports. Saudi Arabia has partially filled the gap, with purchases up around 86% and now representing over half of EU barley exports.
Black Sea and Southern Hemisphere origins remain key competitors. Weekly benchmarks show Black Sea feed barley FOB trading at a clear discount to French and Australian origins, sustaining demand from price-sensitive importers in the Middle East and North Africa. In Australia, domestic bids around 297–327 AUD/t in key port zones align with the flat SFE curve, reflecting balanced domestic feed demand and export interest.
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Fundamentals & Weather
Overall grain market sentiment has turned slightly softer this week. Chicago and other major grain futures eased on September 22 as traders took profits after Monday’s rally and as U.S. harvest progress in corn and soybeans broadly matched expectations. Although barley is less directly impacted by U.S. row‑crop harvest dynamics, weaker corn and wheat futures tend to cap feed barley upside.
Weather remains a two‑sided factor. In the U.S., excessive rainfall in parts of the Corn Belt is delaying corn and soybean harvest and raising some quality concerns, but this primarily affects feed grain substitution dynamics rather than barley supply directly. In the EU and Black Sea, no major new weather shocks have been reported in the last few days, and harvest is largely complete, limiting near‑term production risk. In Australia, current conditions are broadly supportive of barley yield prospects, underpinning the flat forward structure in SFE futures.
Outlook & Trading Recommendations
Given the flat Australian futures curve, firm EU cash levels and competitive Black Sea FOB offers, the barley market appears poised for a sideways to slightly softer trajectory in the very short term, barring a new weather or geopolitical shock. Sluggish early‑season EU exports and reduced Chinese demand temper bullish arguments, while resilient Middle East buying and relatively tight but adequate ending stocks limit downside.
- Feed buyers (EU & MENA): Consider covering nearby Q4 needs opportunistically on minor breaks, especially from Black Sea and Ukrainian origins, where FCA/FOB prices retain a clear discount to German EXW and French FOB benchmarks.
- EU farmers: With EXW prices in northern Germany holding around 0.227 EUR/kg, incremental sales into strength remain prudent, but full liquidation is not advised given still‑supportive feed grain fundamentals.
- Traders: Maintain a mildly bearish-to-neutral stance on flat price but look for margin opportunities in inter‑origin spreads (discounted Black Sea vs EU/Australia) and feed barley vs corn/wheat spreads as broader grains test the lower end of recent ranges.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication
- Germany (Drentwede, EXW, feed barley): Prices expected to remain around current firm levels with a stable tone over the next 3 days.
- Ukraine (Odesa/Kyiv, FCA/FOB feed barley): Discount to EU likely to persist; short‑term direction seen sideways to slightly soft amid ongoing export competition.
- Australia (SFE futures, domestic bids): Futures curve likely to stay flat near current settlements, with local cash bids tracking global grains but showing no clear short‑term breakout signal.