Big Cardamom Stays Firm as Assam Floods Choke Supply From Nepal and India
Big cardamom prices remain supported by tight stocks, Assam floods and reduced Nepal arrivals, with export demand improving and import costs rising.
Prices
Import replacement cost for big cardamom from Nepal is reported around USD 17.35/kg, while domestic Kainchicut big cardamom is trading near USD 17.77–17.88/kg. Average auction prices span a wider band of roughly USD 14.03–18.96/kg, reflecting pronounced quality differentiation and limited availability of top grades.
In parallel, Indian green cardamom FOB New Delhi has been edging higher through July. Converting the latest indications at an assumed rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, recent offers translate approximately as follows:
The modest but broad-based uptick across sizes and forms is consistent with the tighter big cardamom balance: higher import parity and constrained movement in the Northeast are helping to underpin the wider cardamom complex.
Supply & Demand
Spot stocks of big cardamom in India are reported below normal, and arrivals from Nepal are running thin. Nepal’s crop has suffered weather-related damage, curbing exportable surplus and lifting replacement costs for Indian buyers that typically rely on Nepali supplies to balance the domestic market.
In India’s Northeast, heavy monsoon rainfall and flood-like conditions in Assam and neighboring states are disrupting crop movement and interior logistics. Recent flooding has inundated large parts of Assam and damaged thousands of hectares of cropland, complicating transport from producing pockets and warehouses to consuming centers and ports.
On the demand side, export activity has strengthened. India’s big cardamom exports in 2025–26 are estimated around 1,753 tonnes, up from roughly 1,368 tonnes in the previous year, with export earnings also rising. This improvement, even amid tighter availability, signals resilient overseas demand and helps explain the firmness in domestic prices despite weather disruptions and logistical challenges.
Fundamentals & External Drivers
The current price strength in big cardamom is fundamentally driven by limited stocks and weather-related crop damage in both India and Nepal. With arrivals from Nepal subdued and Indian inventories running thin, buyers are increasingly competing for reduced volumes, supporting both auction and trade-level prices.
Severe floods in Assam and Upper Assam districts are adding a logistical premium: blocked roads, localized infrastructure damage and periodic river transport interruptions are all slowing physical movement and raising on-the-ground transaction costs. While the upcoming crop is initially expected to be satisfactory, persistent rainfall and saturated soils introduce downside risks to actual harvest outcomes and post-harvest quality.
At the same time, container shipping markets remain firm despite some recent easing from earlier peaks. Elevated Asia–Europe and related lanes’ freight rates, as well as ongoing security-related diversions around the Red Sea, continue to inflate delivered costs for spices and other high-value cargoes. For big cardamom, these conditions reinforce the impact of higher import parity from Nepal, limiting arbitrage-driven downside in domestic prices.
Weather & Short-Term Outlook
Weather remains the key short-term risk factor. The monsoon has brought extreme rainfall to parts of Northeast India, including major agricultural districts of Assam, with forecasts pointing to continued heavy showers and thunderstorms in the region through the end of July. Any further flooding or infrastructure damage could delay the movement of existing stocks and complicate early harvesting and drying operations.
In Nepal, earlier adverse weather has already reduced the current crop and constrained arrivals into India. While reports suggest that the upcoming crop could be satisfactory under normal conditions, uncertainty over the remainder of the monsoon and localized landslide or flood risks in hill-growing areas means downside supply risks cannot be ruled out.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)
- Bias: Prices for big cardamom are expected to stay firm to slightly higher, supported by below-normal stocks, reduced Nepali arrivals and ongoing flood-related logistical disruptions.
- For importers/blenders: Consider covering near-term needs on dips rather than waiting for meaningful downside, as import parity from Nepal and freight costs are likely to cap any substantial correction.
- For exporters: The firmer international demand and higher export volumes suggest maintaining active sales programs, but with careful attention to quality segregation and shipment timing amid weather-related delays.
- For producers/traders in Northeast India: Prioritize risk management around storage, insurance and logistics, given heightened flood risk and the potential for localized quality losses or physical damage.
3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- Big cardamom, India domestic (Kainchicut, average quality): Firm to slightly higher; trade band implied by current USD levels converts to roughly 16.40–16.90 EUR/kg, with upside skew if logistics worsen.
- Big cardamom, Nepal-origin import parity into India: Supported around 15.95 EUR/kg equivalent, with risk of further increases if Nepali arrivals stay weak or freight surcharges expand.
- Green cardamom, FOB New Delhi (selected grades): Currently around 21.75–25.30 EUR/kg; near-term bias is sideways to slightly higher in sympathy with big cardamom and broader spice cost inflation.