Black Gram Holds Firm as Monsoon Delays and Rupee Weakness Tighten Supply

Black gram (urad) remains the clear outperformer in India’s pulse complex, supported by delayed monsoon progress, below-normal rainfall expectations and weaker rupee, which together are tightening near-term supply and underpinning prices. The broader pulses market is cautious: most pulses are soft to range-bound, but urad stands out as the strongest segment with both domestic and imported grades firm. Concerns over weak early kharif sowing and IMD guidance for below-normal July rainfall, coming after one of the driest Junes on record, are reinforcing supply risk sentiment and discouraging aggressive selling. At the same time, a softer rupee is lifting import costs, limiting downside for imported black gram. Demand-side support from dals is modest but steady, enough to keep the market tight while other pulses like chana, tur and moong see mild pressure.

Prices & Spreads

Urad is trading at a notable premium within the pulse basket. Imported FAQ urad is indicated around ₹8,400 per quintal, while higher-quality SQ urad is near ₹9,200 per quintal. Firm raw bean prices have already translated into a ₹100–150 per quintal increase in urad dal. Indicative reference mandi quotes show urad (black gram) trading near ₹10,000 per quintal nationally, comfortably above the current minimum support price (MSP) and flagged as a favourable selling window for farmers. Using an approximate FX rate of ₹90 = EUR 1, current black gram levels translate as follows: The domestic premium over FAQ imports reflects both quality and the rising cost of foreign-origin supplies, amplified by currency weakness.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Kharif urad sowing is lagging last year, heightening concerns over the 2026/27 crop. Traders report that the delayed monsoon and weak early rainfall have slowed planting, a pattern broadly consistent with IMD data showing India’s fifth-driest June since 1901 and expectations for below-normal national rainfall in July. This sowing delay is a key structural support for black gram prices. On the demand side, urad dal offtake is not exceptionally strong but remains solid enough that mills are willing to pay up for raw material. The recent ₹100–150 per quintal rise in dal indicates that processors are successfully passing part of the raw bean cost into the retail chain, limiting resistance to higher urad prices in the short term. In contrast, competing pulses are under moderate pressure: chana is weighed down by government stock and Nafed selling; tur and imported lemon tur are softer on slow mill demand; moong is pressured by fresh summer arrivals in Uttar Pradesh. Masoor is stable thanks to Canadian supply, while rajma chitra is firm on better demand and limited premium-quality stock. This relative weakness in alternatives further channels trade interest into urad.

Weather & Currency Context

IMD’s latest monthly outlook points to below-normal July 2026 rainfall (less than 94% of the long-period average), following a sharply deficient June. Monsoon progression into north and central India has been uneven, with delays of around a week into key northern states and intermittent stalls in June. For urad, whose kharif sowing window is concentrated in the early monsoon weeks, this elevates yield and acreage risk. At the same time, a weaker rupee is making imported pulses, including Myanmar-origin urad, more expensive in local terms. This currency effect, combined with firm overseas offers, is limiting the scope for any sizeable correction in imported FAQ and SQ urad and is underpinning the domestic market floor.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

Overall pulse market sentiment is cautious, but black gram is clearly in a bull-biased phase. The market is closely tracking: (1) monsoon advancement and rainfall distribution, (2) weekly sowing data for urad versus last year, (3) import flow and parity from Myanmar and other origins, and (4) government policy signals on stock release and import facilitation. Government intervention is currently more visible in chana, where Nafed selling is capping price rallies. In urad, there is less direct stock overhang, increasing the market’s sensitivity to weather and import cost shocks. With current mandi prices already well above MSP, farmer selling is active but measured, reflecting expectations that further weather or supply surprises could move the market higher.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• Producers/Farmers: With spot prices meaningfully above MSP and classified as a good selling window, staggered sales over the next 2–3 weeks are advisable, locking in current margins while retaining some exposure to potential weather-driven upside.
• Millers/Buyers: Secure near-term coverage on dips rather than waiting for a deep correction, as monsoon and sowing risks plus expensive imports limit downside; consider diversifying raw material timing to avoid peak weather headlines.
• Traders: Bias remains mildly long; favour buying on pullbacks toward import parity, but be ready to trim exposure if monsoon rainfall normalises in core urad belts or if the rupee strengthens, improving import parity.

Over the next three trading days, black gram prices in key Indian centres are likely to remain firm to slightly higher in EUR terms, with:

• Domestic urad (black gram) in major mandis: sideways to +1–2% in EUR-equivalent amid ongoing sowing and monsoon uncertainty.
• Imported FAQ/SQ urad at ports: stable to marginally firmer as currency weakness and limited fresh offers keep CIF values supported.
• Urad dal: gradual pass-through of raw material costs, with further modest upticks likely if raw urad remains tight.