Black Gram Market: Firm Prices Amid Monsoon Delays and Tight Sowing

Black gram (urad) remains the clear outperformer in India’s pulses complex, with firm spot and dal prices supported by delayed monsoon progress, weak kharif sowing and higher import costs. Compared with softer trends in chana, tur and moong, black gram is holding a premium and is unlikely to correct sharply in the very near term. The broader pulses market is cautious. A slow monsoon onset, rainfall deficits and uncertainty over kharif sowing have dampened trade volumes, while a weaker rupee is making imported pulses – including Myanmar-origin urad – more expensive. Against this backdrop, limited domestic sowing, rising import parity and strong raw urad prices are feeding into higher urad dal values. The next leg for prices will hinge on monsoon revival in July, sowing pace in central and southern India, and any government intervention on imports or stock releases.

Prices

Within pulses, urad stands out as the strongest segment. While chana, tur and moong are under mild pressure or range-bound, urad prices have moved higher, with raw Myanmar-origin FAQ near ₹8,400/qtl and SQ quality around ₹9,200/qtl in India’s physical markets. Rising raw urad costs have pushed urad dal up by roughly ₹100–150/qtl in recent sessions.

Recent mandi data confirm a firm undertone in black gram. Average black gram (urd whole) prices in Rajasthan are quoted near ₹5,236/qtl, while a major Maharashtra market such as Latur is trading non-FAQ black gram around ₹7,700/qtl. At the all-India level, live mandi indications suggest urad spot prices around ₹10,000/qtl, clearly above the MSP of ₹8,200/qtl, underscoring tightness and strong farmer selling power.

Note: EUR values are approximate, converted from INR at ~₹92/EUR.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, black gram is benefiting from constrained supply expectations. Kharif urad sowing is running behind last year, raising concerns that acreage and eventual output could fall if monsoon recovery is delayed. Traders already report that urad sowing is notably weaker than normal, in contrast to some other kharif pulses where the response has been more mixed.

Import dynamics are exacerbating the tightness. Myanmar-origin urad prices have risen, and a weaker rupee is lifting landed costs, making large-scale import-driven downside in domestic prices unlikely in the short term. At the same time, demand for urad dal is proving comparatively resilient versus other dals; even as masoor and chana-based products see lethargic offtake, urad dal consumption remains firm enough to absorb higher raw material costs.

By contrast, other pulses highlight the relative strength of black gram. Chana is pressured by government stock and NAFED selling despite limited mandi arrivals. Tur is softer on sluggish mill buying, and moong is under pressure from new summer arrivals in Uttar Pradesh. Masoor is broadly balanced, with imports covering demand, and rajma chitra is firm mainly on quality shortages. In this cross-complex context, urad’s tighter balance sheet stands out, supporting a structural premium.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather is a key risk factor. India has just experienced an exceptionally dry June, and the southwest monsoon’s progress has been delayed, particularly across central and northern regions critical for urad sowing. Reports already indicate a sharp drop in urad sowing area – in some estimates up to 40% lower – as farmers either delay planting or shift to other crops amid uncertainty.

Forecast models, however, point to an improving rainfall pattern in early July, with a revival of monsoon activity from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea branches expected to bring more widespread showers across the country in the first week of the month. If this revival materialises, some recovery in urad sowing is possible, especially in southern and parts of central India where sowing windows remain open for longer. Yet, any acreage lost by mid-July would structurally tighten 2026/27 black gram availability and keep prices well supported into the post-harvest period.

Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

Black gram fundamentals are also shaped by policy and stock positioning. The MSP for urad has been raised to ₹8,200/qtl for Kharif 2026–27, but spot prices well above this level mean that MSP is not currently a binding floor; instead, it underpins farmer bargaining power and discourages distress selling.

Unlike chana, where sizeable government reserves and active NAFED selling cap rallies, there is limited evidence of comparable stock overhang in urad. Trade bodies and recent market commentary suggest that both chana and urad are expected to remain at least stable to slightly firm, but the on-the-ground data show that urad has a stronger bias to the upside given its weaker sowing and higher import costs.

Speculative positioning has also become more bullish after several sharp price spikes in urad dal earlier in 2026, when some local markets registered single-day gains above 30% on tight spot availability. While those extreme moves have cooled, they underline how quickly black gram prices can react to small shifts in supply, especially when the broader macro backdrop (monsoon risk, El Niño concerns, currency weakness) keeps participants on edge.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading View

In the near term (next 2–4 weeks), black gram prices are expected to remain firm to slightly higher, with volatility driven mainly by monsoon headlines and sowing updates. A meaningful improvement in rainfall distribution in July could cap further upside, but any confirmation of substantial acreage loss or localised crop stress would quickly reignite bullish momentum.

• For farmers: With spot prices well above MSP and sowing uncertainty still elevated, staggered selling is advisable. Producers with good-quality stock can continue to hold a portion, particularly in deficit regions, while taking advantage of current high prices for cash flow.
• For millers and processors: Coverage for near-term raw urad needs should be secured on dips, as downside appears limited compared with other pulses. Consider building moderate inventories into the early kharif period, but avoid overstocking ahead of clearer monsoon and acreage data.
• For traders: The risk-reward currently favours a buy-on-dips approach in black gram relative to chana and moong, where government stocks and fresh arrivals act as stronger caps. However, be prepared for sharp mark-to-market swings around weather news and any import policy signals.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• All-India urad (black gram, whole): Sideways to slightly higher; tight supply and high import parity keep prices supported near the equivalent of €105–110/qtl.
• Maharashtra (e.g., Latur): Firm bias around ~€80–85/qtl; any rainfall delays or local buying spurts could trigger quick spikes.
• Rajasthan and northern mandis: Mostly sideways in the ~€55–60/qtl band, with a mild upward tilt as traders reassess sowing progress and inter-state flows.