Black Gram Market Softens as New Kharif Supply Nears

India’s black gram (urad) market is drifting lower as softer Myanmar export offers, weak mill buying and expectations of larger kharif arrivals pressure prices, while upcoming festive demand and low port stocks provide only limited support. Domestic trade is increasingly positioning for a supply-heavy Q4: Brazilian imports and expanding Indian kharif arrivals in Maharashtra, Karnataka and later Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are expected to build comfortable availability just as seasonal demand peaks. Export offers from Myanmar have already eased, and domestic mills are restricting purchases to immediate needs, signalling cautious sentiment and limited appetite to chase prices higher.

Prices

International CNF offers for Myanmar-origin urad have weakened into the September–October shipment window. FAQ grade has slipped by about USD 15 to around USD 870 per tonne CNF, while SQ is down roughly USD 25 to about USD 940 per tonne CNF, underscoring softer import parity for India.

In the domestic market, key consuming and trading centres reflect this mild downward bias but with regional variation. Chennai FAQ urad is quoted around USD 88.87–89.14 per quintal, with SQ near USD 95.46–95.73. Delhi FAQ stands around USD 92.83–93.09 per quintal and SQ at roughly USD 99.42–99.68, while Mumbai FAQ is near USD 90.19 and Kolkata FAQ around USD 92.83–93.35 per quintal. Guntur polished urad trades close to USD 91.24–91.77 per quintal and Vijayawada polished near USD 93.35–93.88.

These levels are broadly consistent with a market that has come off recent highs but has not collapsed, as low port inventories and the proximity of the festival season help to cushion the downside. Recent mandi data for India still show a wide range of spot prices across more than 4,000 markets, with historical patterns indicating that black gram prices tend to peak around August and gradually ease into the post-monsoon harvest period.

Note: EUR estimates based on recent EUR/USD levels; values are indicative only.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, India is entering a period of rapidly expanding availability. Imports are expected to rise as cheaper Myanmar FAQ and SQ offers encourage buying, while Brazilian urad arrivals are projected to increase toward the end of September. At the same time, domestic kharif arrivals from Maharashtra and Karnataka are building through September, with Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to follow from October.

Fresh arrivals are reported from multiple centres including Hubli, Bagalkot, Jamkhandi, Bijapur, Sedam, Chincholi, Bhalki, Basavakalyan and Bidar, with early new-crop flow in Maharashtra’s Dudhani market already around 100 quintals. This broad geographic spread of new supply reduces the risk of localised tightness and reinforces the expectation of a more comfortable balance heading into Q4.

Demand-side dynamics are mixed. Domestic dal mills are buying largely against near-term requirements, reflecting caution about price direction and confidence in forthcoming supply. Festive demand for urad dal, mogar and gota in the coming weeks should lift offtake temporarily, but this is likely to be offset by the steady build-up of imported and domestic stocks, limiting the scope for a sustained rally.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Fundamentals currently favour a mildly bearish to range-bound structure. The easing of Myanmar offers directly lowers import parity and encourages India-bound shipments, while additional volumes from Brazil add diversification and redundancy to supply. Recent trade data confirm that India has already imported substantial volumes of urad in 2026, with further flows expected, though the timing of arrivals remains an operational risk.

Weather remains a secondary but notable factor. The 2026 southwest monsoon is expected to be below normal at around 90% of the long-period average, raising some concern about yield potential in late-sown pulses. However, for urad, the immediate effect is moderated by the combination of rising imports and early kharif arrivals already visible in the market.

Policy and logistics also shape the risk profile. The existing import framework with Myanmar, along with India’s broader stock management policies for pulses, continues to underpin structural reliance on external supply. Any abrupt change in stock limits, import duties or logistical disruptions at ports would be key upside risks, but there is currently no fresh evidence of imminent intervention.

Weather Snapshot (Key Growing Regions)

In central and southern India (notably Maharashtra and Karnataka), recent rainfall has been uneven but largely adequate to support ongoing kharif harvest operations. Short dry spells are actually helping harvest progress and quality in some belts, facilitating the early arrivals now being reported.

In northern and western pulse-growing states such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, late monsoon showers may still influence pod filling and final yields for urad, but current expectations point to generally acceptable production levels. Overall, weather is a watchpoint rather than an active driver for near-term prices, given the strong role of imports in balancing the market.

Market Outlook & Trading Suggestions

Looking ahead into September and early October, the black gram market is expected to trade with a soft-to-sideways bias. Festive consumption, low port stocks and any temporary logistical bottlenecks can generate short-lived bounces, but the overarching theme is one of rising supply from both overseas and domestic sources, which should cap the upside.

Trading outlook (next 4–6 weeks)

• Importers / Traders: Use current softer Myanmar CNF offers to secure staggered coverage for Sep–Nov, avoiding front-loaded buying given the prospect of heavier Brazilian and Indian arrivals late September onward.
• Dal mills: Maintain hand-to-mouth procurement for the time being, but be prepared to modestly increase coverage ahead of peak festive demand if port and mandi inventories tighten temporarily.
• Producers: For early-arriving crops, consider gradual sales on upticks driven by festival-related demand, as the growing weight of imports and later kharif arrivals argues against holding out for substantially higher prices.
• Speculative participants: Bias toward selling rallies in nearby contracts rather than chasing strength, while closely monitoring any policy headlines or weather shocks that could abruptly tighten the S&D balance.

3-day directional view (EUR terms, key hubs)

• Imported Myanmar FAQ CNF India: Slight downside to sideways, with offers likely to remain under gentle pressure as sellers compete for Indian demand.
• Chennai & Mumbai spot (FAQ): Mildly softer with occasional intraday rebounds; overall tone guided by CNF parity and pace of new-crop arrivals.
• Delhi & Kolkata spot (higher grades / SQ): Mostly sideways, modest premium retention expected due to quality demand and still-limited top-grade availability.