Brazil’s 2025/26 record soybean crop squeezes US exports as China shifts purchases. Concise view on prices, trade flows and short‑term outlook in EUR.
Prices
Benchmark CBOT soybean futures have drifted lower over the past month, down roughly 5–6% but still around 9% higher than a year ago, reflecting comfortable supply yet lingering risk premiums from weather and macro factors. In physical markets, Brazil’s large export surplus continues to cap upside, with June export projections repeatedly revised higher by exporters’ associations.
Converted to EUR, recent indicative export offers sit roughly in the EUR 430–450/t range for standard origins such as the US Gulf, with Brazil typically trading at a discount. Against this backdrop, platform indications show:
The combination of falling Black Sea GMO-free values and softening global benchmarks confirms a mildly bearish tone for feed-grade beans, whereas the premium segment in China remains tight and price-resilient.
Supply & Demand
Market feedback for 2025/26 points to global soybean production above 180 million tonnes in Brazil alone, a clear historical high. Export volumes are expected to exceed 110 million tonnes, with Brazil retaining a decisive price advantage that continues to suppress US market share. This is corroborated by official and private projections in the 177–180 million tonne range and export targets around 112–115 million tonnes.
Brazilian shipments are robust despite some month-to-month swings. ANEC’s early June forecast for soybean exports around 12.36 million tonnes implied a temporary 10% year-on-year dip, but subsequent revisions point closer to 14 million tonnes in June, above last year’s level and consistent with record cumulative exports already surpassing full‑year 2025 volumes by the end of May. Overall, South American supply is more than sufficient to cover incremental Asian demand.
Against this backdrop, US soybeans face a difficult 2025/26. As of 11 June 2026, US cumulative shipments reached only 36.6 million tonnes, down 20% year-on-year, with total sales at 40.6 million tonnes (‑17.3%). Shipments to China fell particularly sharply: exports were just 11.76 million tonnes versus 22.48 million tonnes a year earlier, and total sales to China dropped almost 47% to 11.96 million tonnes, leaving a minimal unshipped balance of around 0.2 million tonnes. The combination of Brazil’s bumper crop, firm US dollar and evolving trade patterns has eroded US competitiveness.
USDA still projects a partial rebound in 2026/27, with US soybean exports seen rising to about 44.4 million tonnes, up nearly 8% from 2025/26. However, this outlook rests heavily on expectations of improved US–China trade relations and a moderation in Brazil’s relative price advantage—assumptions that current trade flows do not yet fully validate.
China Focus & Trade Flows
China remains the pivotal demand center and the clearest illustration of shifting trade flows. In January–April 2026, Chinese soybean imports from Brazil reached 16.1 million tonnes, up 11% year-on-year, and accounted for 59.3% of total imports. Over the first five months of the year, more than 60% of all Chinese soybean arrivals came from Brazil. This deepens the structural realignment that has been underway for several seasons and reinforces Brazil’s dominance in the Chinese market. Analysts expect Brazil’s share to stay elevated in 2026 thanks to its exportable surplus and tariff advantages.
In stark contrast, US-origin flows into China have slumped. During Q1 2026, China imported only 3.41 million tonnes of soybeans from the US, a steep 70.5% year-on-year decline. The reasons are threefold: overlapping peak South American supply, relatively high US prices exacerbated by a stronger dollar, and ongoing adjustments in bilateral trade structures that encourage Chinese buyers to prioritize Brazilian cargoes. While there have been occasional US sales to China on price dips, the overall pattern remains one of sustained market share loss for the US.
For China’s domestic market, this sourcing shift improves supply security by diversifying within South America but increases exposure to Brazilian logistics and weather risks. It also raises strategic questions around long-term supply balance and import dependence, especially as domestic soybean acreage is constrained by competing crops and policy priorities.
Weather & Regional Outlook
Weather conditions in key soybean regions are seasonally mixed but not yet threatening the comfortable global supply picture. In Brazil, the 2025/26 harvest is largely complete, and attention is turning to storage and export logistics rather than yields. Excess soil moisture in parts of southern Argentina earlier in the season slowed harvest progress but did not materially alter the global surplus narrative.
For China, the short-term outlook in the northeastern soybean belt (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia) over the coming week signals broadly favorable conditions: near‑normal temperatures and scattered showers, supporting crop establishment without pronounced stress. Localized heavy rain may temporarily affect fieldwork but is unlikely to disrupt national supply prospects. With import dependence above 80%, China’s near-term balance will continue to be driven more by seaborne flows from Brazil than by weather in domestic fields.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–4 Weeks)
- Bias: Mildly bearish to sideways for benchmark soybeans, as record South American supply and weak US export performance outweigh seasonal US weather risk.
- For crushers in China: Continue to prioritize Brazilian offers where logistics allow; use current global softness to extend coverage into Q3, but retain some flexibility in case of US weather rallies.
- For importers in Europe: Attractive Black Sea and Brazilian differentials justify scaling in purchases on price dips, particularly for GMO-free segments where Ukrainian offers remain competitive versus US beans.
- For producers: Consider incremental hedging on rallies driven by US weather headlines, as the structural weight of Brazilian supply and China’s pivot away from US origin limit sustained price spikes.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- CBOT futures (EUR basis): Likely to trade sideways to slightly lower, with modest downside risk if Brazilian export pace remains strong and US conditions stay benign.
- Brazil export FOB (EUR/t): Stable to slightly softer, pressured by heavy nearby shipments but supported by active Chinese demand.
- US Gulf FOB (EUR/t): Slight downside bias as US struggles to attract incremental Chinese buying; any weather-led rallies expected to be sold into by exporters.
- Chinese coastal import CFR (EUR/t): Largely stable, with basis levels reflecting strong Brazilian availability; minor downside possible if freight rates ease.