Soybean Complex Softens as Futures Ease but Basis Holds Firm

Soybean futures are slightly weaker across the complex, with CBOT beans, meal and oil drifting lower along the curve, while physical FOB/CPT prices in key origins remain broadly stable in EUR terms. The forward structure still shows a gentle contango, signaling comfortable medium‑term supply despite localized weather risks. The market is currently characterized by modest pressure on nearby CBOT soybean contracts around the equivalent of roughly EUR 0.45/kg, while soymeal holds close to EUR 293/t and soyoil trades just under EUR 0.75/kg. Chinese DCE soybeans are flat to slightly lower, indicating a calm demand picture in the world’s largest import market. Physical indications from the Black Sea, US, India and China show only marginal week‑on‑week moves, suggesting that end‑user coverage is adequate and that futures weakness reflects mainly positioning and benign supply expectations rather than acute tightness.

Prices

CBOT soybean futures for November 2026 are trading around 1,222.5 US‑ct/bu, down roughly 0.3% on the day, with the nearby August 2026 contract slightly below that level. Along the curve into 2027–2028, prices ease gradually, confirming a mild contango and a market expecting no major supply shock in the medium term.

Soyoil on CBOT shows a gentle downward slope from about 74.8 US‑ct/lb in August 2026 to near 66.1 US‑ct/lb by December 2027, reflecting comfortable vegoil availability and some pressure from competing oils. Soymeal is broadly steady, with nearby August 2026 around USD 323.2/short ton and only modest gains further out, signaling stable crushing margins.

On the Dalian exchange, No.1 soybeans for September–November 2026 are fractionally lower (around CNY 4,689–4,726/t), underlining a lack of new bullish impulse from Chinese demand. In the physical market, indicative FOB/CPT prices converted to EUR remain mostly side‑ways: US No.2 soybeans FOB are around EUR 0.60–0.61/kg, Ukraine FOB/CPT roughly EUR 0.33–0.36/kg, Indian sortex clean near EUR 0.82–0.84/kg, and Chinese yellow beans around EUR 0.71–0.76/kg, with organic premiums intact.

Supply & Demand

The forward contango in beans and oil, combined with stable to slightly higher meal quotes beyond early 2027, indicates that the market is pricing in adequate global supply. US and South American crops are assumed to be broadly sufficient, while Chinese futures stability suggests that import programs are proceeding without major disruption.

Crush margins remain reasonably supported: soymeal holds firm relative to beans, while soyoil softens further along the curve. This encourages steady crush activity, underpinning meal availability for feed demand. The absence of sharp moves on DCE and in FOB basis levels points to balanced nearby demand from feed and industrial users, with most consumers sufficiently covered for the short term.

Regionally, Black Sea offers from Ukraine remain competitive in EUR terms, supporting flows into the Mediterranean and EU markets. Indian and Chinese origin beans are priced at a premium, reflecting quality and, in China’s case, organic and specialty segments. Overall, the supply picture appears comfortable, with no immediate signals of structural tightness in the data.

Futures Structure & Fundamentals

The soybean complex shows a coherent structure: front‑month beans modestly discounted versus deferreds, soyoil in a more pronounced downward trajectory through 2028, and soymeal slightly firmer on the long end. This configuration indicates expectations of sustained oilseed availability but steady protein meal demand.

Open interest is concentrated in key CBOT months (November 2026 beans, December 2026 oil, December 2026 meal), suggesting that these contracts will continue to anchor price discovery. Daily changes are small, implying that current moves are driven more by incremental adjustments in speculative and hedging positions than by fundamental shocks.

Physical FOB/CPT quotes in EUR show only marginal adjustments over recent weeks – for example, US No.2 beans easing from around EUR 0.63/kg equivalent in early July to roughly EUR 0.60–0.61/kg now, and Ukrainian GMO‑free CPT Odesa holding in a narrow band around EUR 0.36–0.37/kg. This stability confirms that basis and freight dynamics are not amplifying the modest futures softness.

Weather & Risk Outlook

Current pricing implies that the market is not yet pricing in major weather stress in key producing regions. The gentle contango and soft soyoil curve suggest that participants expect normal production in North and South America, with only localized dryness risk.

The main risks for the coming weeks are a sudden shift in US Midwest weather during critical pod‑setting stages, or updated production estimates in South America that deviate materially from expectations. Either could tighten the new‑crop balance sheet and quickly reverse the current mild bearish tone, especially in nearby CBOT contracts.

Trading Outlook

• Processors: With flat to slightly weaker bean futures and stable meal, consider gradually extending crush hedges in key CBOT months (Nov 26–Mar 27), while keeping flexibility in soyoil coverage given its softer forward curve.
• Importers: Basis and EUR‑converted FOB prices are relatively stable; staggered buying on modest dips in nearby CBOT contracts appears prudent, particularly from competitive origins such as the Black Sea.
• Producers: The mild contango into 2027–2028 offers opportunities to layer in forward sales on price rallies, especially if local weather remains favorable and cash basis stays firm.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)