Brazil’s Record Soybean Crop Weighs on Prices but Supports Meal and Oil Supply

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop has surged to a record 180 million tonnes, reinforcing a well-supplied global oilseed market and keeping downward pressure on international soybean, meal and oil prices. With crushing also at record levels, European buyers face a broadly comfortable supply backdrop through late 2026.

Record Brazilian production is combining with strong domestic processing and only localized weather risks in South America to cap price rallies on futures and physical markets. FOB offers from major exporters remain competitive, while CBOT futures have traded sideways to lower in recent sessions amid heavy South American supplies and cautious speculative positioning.

📈 Prices & Futures

CBOT soybean futures have been trading with a slightly softer tone in early April, as the market digests confirmation of record South American production. Recent sessions showed modest downside moves and rising open interest, reflecting fresh selling interest as funds respond to abundant supply and post-USDA report positioning.

On the physical side, recent indicative FOB offers converted to EUR show stable to slightly softer values since mid-March, consistent with this heavy supply backdrop. U.S. No. 2 soybeans around Washington, Indian sortex-clean beans, and Ukrainian origin from Odesa are all holding in relatively narrow ranges, while Chinese origins (conventional and organic) show mild easing after small March increases.

Origin	Type	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change (EUR/kg)
US	No. 2	Washington, FOB	≈0.56	Stable
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi, FOB	≈0.93	Stable
Ukraine	Standard	Odesa, FOB	≈0.32	-3%
China	Yellow	Beijing, FOB	≈0.65	Stable
China	Yellow, organic	Beijing, FOB	≈0.73	-1–2%

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Brazil’s soybean harvested area for 2025/26 is estimated at 49.4 million hectares, up 3% year on year, with yields at 3.64 t/ha – 9% above the previous season and 6% above the five-year average. The result is a record 180 million tonne crop, surpassing last year’s 172.5 million tonnes and consolidating Brazil’s position as the dominant global supplier.

At the same time, Abiove’s record crush data for 2025 confirm that domestic processors are absorbing much of the expanded bean supply, turning it into soybean meal and oil for export and internal consumption. This means incremental production is not simply accumulating as unmarketed stocks, but is actively feeding global protein meal and vegetable oil flows, particularly into Europe and Asia.

Globally, total oilseed output in 2025/26 is projected at about 698 million tonnes, up more than 11 million tonnes from the previous year, with Brazil alone supplying roughly 26% of major oilseed production. Weather-related cuts in Uruguay (–38% year on year) and a smaller Argentine crop at 48 million tonnes provide only partial offset, leaving South American soybean availability at historically high levels overall.

📊 Processing, Meal & Oil Markets

The record Brazilian crush is reinforcing ample availability of soybean meal and oil through 2026. Brazil’s crushing industry is running near capacity, competing head-to-head with Argentina in the global meal and oil trade and increasingly exporting higher-value processed products rather than raw beans.

Spot and forward indicators for soybean meal point to a comfortable balance: CBOT meal futures for 2026 delivery were trading around the low-300s EUR-equivalent per short ton in early April, reflecting strong supply and only moderate feed demand growth. For European feed compounders and biodiesel producers, this translates into sustained price competition between soybean oil, rapeseed oil, sunflower oil and palm oil, with Brazilian-origin soybean oil adding incremental downward pressure.

European buyers of soybean meal and oil therefore face structurally favorable procurement conditions, though basis levels and freight will remain sensitive to port congestion in Brazil and any logistics disruptions linked to weather or infrastructure bottlenecks during the export peak.

🌦️ Weather & Safrinha Corn Cross-Effects

Brazil’s soybean harvest is entering its final stages, with Mato Grosso effectively completed and Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul catching up after earlier delays. Recent reports put the national harvest above 80–85%, confirming that the bulk of the 180 million tonne crop is secured, while localized issues in southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul have only marginal impact on the national total.

The main residual weather risk now lies with the safrinha corn crop, which follows soybeans and accounts for more than three-quarters of Brazil’s annual corn output. Delayed soybean harvests in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul pushed over 70% of safrinha corn sowing in those states beyond the ideal February window, increasing dependence on adequate April–May rainfall for grain filling. Nevertheless, Mato Grosso – nearly half of Brazil’s safrinha area – achieved over 70% planting by late February, supporting USDA’s unchanged 132 million tonne corn forecast.

Short-term forecasts for key Central-West areas signal typical hot conditions with scattered showers, sufficient to keep corn prospects broadly intact for now. Any material downgrade in corn output later this season could support regional feed grain values, but would only indirectly affect soybeans by shifting relative pricing in feed formulations.

🏭 Implications for European Buyers

For European feed and biofuel industries, Brazil’s record soybean production and crush underpin a well-supplied market for imports of meal and oil throughout 2026. Soybean meal remains the primary protein source in compound feeds, and abundant Brazilian and Argentine availability reduces the risk of tightness, even if demand from livestock and aquaculture edges higher.

On the vegetable oil side, competition between soybean oil and rapeseed, sunflower and palm oils is likely to intensify as Brazilian exports expand. This puts structural pressure on EU domestic oilseed margins, particularly for rapeseed crushers, but benefits downstream users such as biodiesel producers and food manufacturers through more attractive procurement opportunities and the potential to lock in margins on forward cover.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading View

In the next 30–90 days, market attention will focus on the completion of Brazil’s soybean harvest, the pace of exports out of key ports, and the evolution of safrinha corn weather. With record supplies now largely confirmed, soybean futures are likely to face selling pressure on rallies, while cash markets should remain well-offered, especially for Brazilian-origin beans and products.

Over a 6–12 month horizon, Brazil’s expanding crush capacity in Mato Grosso and other producing states will gradually shift trade flows toward processed meal and oil exports. For price formation, this implies a persistently heavy tone in global protein meal and vegetable oil markets, barring a major weather shock in another key origin or a sharp demand surprise in China. Macro drivers – energy prices, freight rates and currency moves – will increasingly shape crush margins and relative value between oils.

📌 Trading Recommendations (Non-binding)

• Feed compounders / livestock integrators: Use current weakness to extend soybean meal coverage into Q4 2026, focusing on Brazil/Argentina origin where logistics performance is reliable.
• Vegetable oil buyers (food & biodiesel): Maintain a staggered hedging strategy in soybean oil, taking advantage of dips created by harvest pressure and strong South American export programs.
• Producers & crushers: Consider incremental hedging of 2026/27 production on price rallies, as the global balance sheet remains comfortable and expanded Brazilian capacity caps upside.
• Speculative participants: Favor a sell-on-rally bias in soybeans and meal, while monitoring weather in Brazil’s safrinha corn belt and U.S. Midwest planting progress for any shift in sentiment.

📍 3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• CBOT-linked values (converted to EUR): Slight downside to sideways, with harvest pressure and strong Brazilian supply limiting rebounds after the latest USDA report.
• FOB Brazil / US Gulf soybeans: Mildly softer bias as export programs ramp up and basis levels adjust to clear record volumes.
• European CIF soybean meal: Stable with a slight bearish tilt, reflecting strong South American crush and competitive offers into EU ports.