Cashew kernels under pressure as Indian demand stays soft

Cashew prices are trading in a steady-to-soft range as domestic demand in India remains weaker than usual, with buyers covering only immediate needs and stockists avoiding fresh bulk exposure. Near-term recovery hinges on a revival in kernel offtake from confectionery, sweets and retail channels rather than any supply shock. Indian wholesale markets report a subdued tone, with kernels around USD 11.90/kg equivalent domestically and little follow‑through on the upside as both retailers and bulk users buy hand‑to‑mouth. Export and import flows remain orderly, and recent monsoon forecasts signal no immediate weather shock, leaving the demand side as the dominant driver of price direction.

Prices & Spreads

In New Delhi’s wholesale market, cashew is quoted around USD 11.90/kg, which translates to roughly EUR 11.00–11.20/kg depending on FX, underscoring that current spot levels are not low enough to attract aggressive stock rebuilding. Traders describe the tone as soft rather than collapsing, with limited intraday volatility but a clear lack of upward momentum.

FOB and FCA kernel offers in early June show only marginal week‑on‑week increases of about EUR 0.03/kg across key Indian grades, suggesting list prices are edging up even as physical demand lags. Vietnamese WW320 FOB around EUR 6.80/kg and Dutch FCA WW320 near EUR 4.80/kg further highlight comfortable international availability and competitive origins.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, there is no evidence of acute tightness: processing in India and Vietnam is running normally, and kernel availability for export remains comfortable. Recent mandi data across Indian agricultural commodities show broadly stable food prices, reinforcing the impression that cashew is not facing a generalized inflationary shock at present.

Demand is the clear weak link. Market participants in New Delhi report that confectionery makers, sweet manufacturers and retail chains have not scaled up purchases after the recent seasonal peak, preferring just‑in‑time buying. Stockists are consciously avoiding large forward positions at current levels, which prevents any meaningful rally and keeps a persistent, if orderly, downward bias in sentiment.

Fundamentals & Weather

Structurally, global raw cashew nut production continues to grow, led by West Africa and India, adding to the perception of comfortable medium‑term supply. At the same time, trade reports through early 2026 have flagged oversupply and channel distortions as key reasons for soft kernel pricing, a pattern that aligns with the current slow offtake in India.

Weather‑wise, seasonal outlooks point to a near‑normal onset of the Indian monsoon in June, with active spells along key coastal and northern belts that host cashew‑adjacent cropping systems. For Southeast Asia, forecasts indicate near‑ to below‑normal rainfall in parts of the southern ASEAN region, but no immediate, large‑scale threat to Vietnamese processing or logistics has emerged. Overall, there is no strong weather catalyst to tighten supply in the very short term.

Market Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

Given the combination of adequate supply, only marginally firmer offer prices and subdued domestic consumption, the most probable path for cashew prices is sideways to mildly softer. Any sharp upside would likely require a clear acceleration in demand from Indian sweets and confectionery producers or a demand spike from key import regions, neither of which is visible yet.

However, isolated short‑term spikes cannot be ruled out at individual mandis or for specific grades, as seen recently in other commodities when arrivals briefly tighten. For now, though, these look more like localized events than the start of a broad uptrend in cashews.

Trading & Procurement Advice

• Indian buyers (confectionery, sweets, retail): Continue staggered, hand‑to‑mouth coverage for June, but prepare contingency plans to modestly increase forward bookings if festive or promotional demand indicators improve.
• Importers in Europe & US: Use the current steady‑to‑soft tone to lock in core W320 and W240 requirements from India and Vietnam for Q3, focusing on origin diversification rather than aggressive timing bets.
• Stockists & traders: Avoid large speculative length until there are clearer signs of demand revival; instead, concentrate on grade and origin spreads where relative value is more evident than outright upside.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• New Delhi (FOB/FCA kernels): Sideways to slightly soft in EUR terms; minor list‑price changes possible but no strong upward driver seen.
• Hanoi (FOB kernels): Largely stable in EUR, with competitive offers on WW320 and WW240 expected to persist.
• Dordrecht (FCA kernels, Europe): Stable buyer’s market with comfortable stocks; local prices in EUR likely to track origin offers with a soft bias.