Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tanzania Sets the Tone and Demand Stays Mixed

Global cashew prices are holding relatively firm, anchored by high raw cashew nut (RCN) costs and strong Tanzanian auction activity, even as international kernel demand remains only moderately active. Processor margins, particularly in Vietnam, are under pressure, while post-festive softness in India and weather risks in Tanzania are key variables for the weeks ahead. The market is finely balanced. Elevated RCN prices in Tanzania and Indonesia, cautious procurement by Vietnamese processors, and firm European kernel import demand underpin a floor under prices. At the same time, subdued Western kernel buying and weaker Indian retail offtake after the festive season are limiting upside. Seasonal heavy-rain forecasts for Tanzania add logistical and quality risks during peak marketing, reinforcing the likelihood of a broadly stable but firm price environment into early November.

Prices & Differentials

Cashew kernel values remain broadly stable to firm across main origins, reflecting elevated RCN replacement costs. Vietnamese whole grades are quoted around US$4.50–4.60/lb FOB for W180, US$4.10–4.40 for W210, US$3.50–3.60 for W240 and US$3.10–3.35 for W320, with sellers reluctant to concede given tight margins. In India, kernel prices are still at a premium but are facing gentle downward pressure after the festive demand peak. Indian W240 is quoted near US$4.20/lb FOB against roughly US$3.55 for Vietnam and US$3.77 for African origins, while Indian W320 averages about US$4.00/lb versus around US$3.23 for Vietnam and US$3.45 for Africa. This premium, combined with slower domestic buying, caps Indian upside in the near term. Recent EUR quotations support the picture of firmness rather than rally. In Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB), cashew kernels are currently indicated at EUR 8.10 for WW240 and EUR 7.20 for WW320, with broken grades such as WS at EUR 6.10 and SP at EUR 4.65 per kg. In India (New Delhi, FOB), W320 stands at EUR 7.15 and conventional brownish white W240 at EUR 7.65 per kg. EU distribution prices in the Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA) show WW320 around EUR 5.20 per kg for conventional product.

Supply, Auctions & Weather Risks

RCN prices remain structurally high relative to kernel values. Tanzanian offers are assessed around US$1,860–1,990/mt CNF Ho Chi Minh City, depending on outturn, while Indonesian material with 49 lb outturn and 200 nut count is indicated near US$1,720/mt. These levels are keeping processor margins compressed and discouraging aggressive forward procurement. Tanzania’s 2026/27 marketing season has started strongly. By 25 October, about 141,915 tonnes of raw cashews had reached designated warehouses, with cumulative auction sales at 112,260 tonnes after 9,882 tonnes moved in the latest week. Standard-grade RCN prices at domestic auctions have reached US$1.23–1.30/kg, setting a new seasonal high at the upper end and signalling intense competition among buyers. Participation is broad: 90 companies reportedly joined the recent auctions, with 57 successfully purchasing, confirming robust origin interest. At the same time, Vietnamese processors are notably cautious, preferring to work down existing kernel stocks before taking on more expensive RCN. This conservative stance keeps nearby raw nut demand somewhat contained but does little to relieve the high-cost floor. Weather is becoming a key risk factor. The Tanzania Meteorological Authority now forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions from late October and through November, linked to strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Expected normal to above-normal rainfall raises the risk of harvest delays, transport bottlenecks and quality deterioration in coastal and southern cashew regions, just as auctions ramp up.

Demand, Trade Flows & Fundamentals

Despite soft sentiment in parts of the West, structural demand indicators are supportive. European Union kernel imports rose 5.79% year on year to 150,209 tonnes in January–July 2026, with import value up 12.11% to around US$1.12 billion and average prices climbing to US$7,486/mt. Germany remains the largest EU buyer, followed by the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Africa’s role in the kernel trade continues to expand. EU kernel imports from African processors increased 33.19% to 36,136 tonnes in January–August 2026, with Côte d'Ivoire accounting for approximately 80.74% of this flow (29,175 tonnes). This confirms a gradual but steady shift towards origin processing in West Africa, tightening availability of premium kernels closer to consuming markets. In India, domestic kernel prices are broadly stable but increasingly under pressure as festive-season buying fades. The recent opening of a 20,000-tonne cashew-processing plant in Andhra Pradesh and international support for African processing capacity point to medium-term growth in shelling capacity. For now, however, high RCN costs and subdued kernel demand mean much of this capacity will operate under margin strain rather than fueling a large supply surge.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

Industry experts currently expect cashew prices to remain broadly stable in the coming weeks. Elevated RCN costs, vigorous Tanzanian auction activity and firm European kernel imports argue against significant downside, even as weak post-festive Indian demand and lacklustre Western buying constrain upside. Exceptionally high Tanzanian raw nut prices are unlikely to be sustainable across all origins, but no sharp correction is visible yet. Weather-driven disruptions in Tanzania during November are a key watchpoint. Heavy or poorly timed rainfall could slow harvesting, compromise drying and reduce effective outturns, tightening usable supply. Against this backdrop, processors and buyers alike are likely to favor short-covering strategies over aggressive long positions.

• Roasters & retailers (EU/US): Consider covering near-term needs on dips but avoid large forward commitments. Focus on Vietnam and Africa for competitive WW320/WW240 while monitoring freight and quality from Tanzania.
• Importers & traders: Maintain balanced exposure. High Tanzanian RCN prices and weather risks argue for selective procurement rather than chasing rallies; prioritize lots with proven outturn and reliable logistics.
• Processors (Vietnam/India/Africa): Protect margins by aligning RCN purchases closely with confirmed kernel sales. Given tight spreads, avoid speculative raw nut buying until clearer signals emerge from Tanzanian auctions and post-festive demand.

Over the next three trading days, kernel prices on key routes (Vietnam FOB, India FOB, EU FCA) are expected to stay in a narrow, firm range. Tanzanian RCN auctions should remain well supported, with limited room for further substantial price gains unless heavy rains significantly disrupt supply or quality.