Cashew Market Tightens as Weak Crop Meets Patchy Demand
Global cashew supply is down and quality weaker, while Asian demand improves and Europe stays cautious. Prices remain firm with upside risk into early 2027.
Prices
Kernel prices are stable to firm, underpinned by tight raw material and shrinking availability of large whole grades and quality pieces. Recent origin quotations in EUR confirm this firmness:
| Origin | Location / Term | Grade | Current price (EUR) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | WW240 | 8.15 EUR/kg | Premium whole grade; reflects expensive high‑KOR RCN. |
| Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | WW320 | 7.25 EUR/kg | Benchmark whole grade; stable in latest updates. |
| Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | WS | 6.15 EUR/kg | Broken kernels supported by food‑industry demand. |
| India | New Delhi, FOB | W320 | 7.15 EUR/kg | Maintains a traditional premium over Vietnam. |
| Netherlands | Dordrecht, FCA | WW320 | 5.25 EUR/kg | European warehouse level for non‑origin stock. |
Prices for Vietnamese WW240 and WW320 have edged up modestly since mid‑October and are now steady, as processors pass high RCN replacement costs into offers. Broken grades such as WS and pieces remain well supported by industrial buyers but show less volatility than whole kernels.
Supply & Demand
The 2026 Northern Hemisphere cashew crop has finished below last year, with global production estimated 10–12% lower year‑on‑year and outturns roughly 2.0–2.5 lbs weaker than in 2025. This affects all major origins, sharply reducing the pool of high‑quality RCN and premium kernel grades.
West Africa has underperformed both in size and quality. Shipments from Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire into Vietnam and India have shown higher defect rates and lower outturns than last season, and similar issues are reported from other West African origins and Cambodia. As a result, the supply of large, high‑quality kernels is particularly tight in the second half of 2026.
Tanzania’s 2026/27 campaign is now providing critical RCN flow. Early auctions that started in mid‑October are achieving firm prices, with RCN in regions such as Ruvuma recently trading between TZS 3,150 and 3,280 per kg at the Tanzania Mercantile Exchange, highlighting strong competition for good quality nuts. Favorable weather to date points to a crop roughly in line with last season, around 550,000 tonnes based on current trade expectations, although heavy rains in November could still affect harvesting.
On the demand side, kernel consumption remains muted in Europe and the Middle East, where cautious buying and limited forward coverage continue. In contrast, Asian demand is resilient, led by China, and US import volumes are already running ahead of 2025. Looking ahead, both China and Middle Eastern buyers are expected to step up kernel purchases to cover needs for Lunar New Year in February 2027 and other festive demand in early 2027.
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Fundamentals & Weather
Vietnamese processors are under‑covered for Q4 RCN and remain reluctant to source aggressively from West Africa due to quality concerns and weak outturns. At the same time, limited arrivals of good‑quality nuts are constraining processing volumes, especially for large whole kernels, and pushing premiums for top grades higher.
Tanzania’s auctions, scheduled weekly through January 2027, are becoming the key marginal supply source, and high prices there are reinforcing firm global RCN values. The short‑rains season has begun, with the Tanzania Meteorological Authority forecasting periods of rainfall and thunderstorms in several regions in early November, which may disrupt late harvesting and logistics if intensities pick up.
Overall, fundamentals point to a structurally tighter market in premium segments: high‑KOR RCN is scarce, large whole kernels (e.g. WW240, WW320) are limited, and even kernel pieces are beginning to feel constrained. This tightening coincides with seasonal demand improvement in Asia and ongoing strength in US imports, supporting a firm near‑term outlook.
Outlook & Trading Recommendations
Market balance: The near‑term tone is moderately bullish, driven by tight supply of quality kernels and firm RCN prices, but capped by soft demand in Europe and the Middle East. Much will depend on how aggressively Asian and Middle Eastern buyers move to cover for early‑2027 festivals.
- Kernel buyers (roasters, retailers): Consider securing a portion of Q1–Q2 2027 needs in WW240/WW320 and key broken grades at current levels, prioritizing origin quality rather than price alone. Avoid being overly short in large whole kernels, where premiums could widen further.
- RCN buyers and processors: Be selective on West African origins given weaker outturns; focus on proven suppliers and Tanzania lots with strong KOR, even at higher nominal prices, to protect kernel yields and margins.
- Distributors in Europe & Middle East: Given subdued local demand, maintain disciplined inventory levels but use any short‑term dips prompted by macro or currency moves to extend coverage modestly into early 2027.
- Risk watch: Monitor Tanzanian weather and auction progress, Chinese and Middle Eastern buying pace, and any further deterioration in European consumption, which could quickly shift sentiment if global demand underperforms.
3‑Day Price Indication
- Vietnam, FOB Hanoi: WW240 around 8.15 EUR/kg, WW320 around 7.25 EUR/kg, WS around 6.15 EUR/kg are expected to remain steady over the next three days, with an upward bias if RCN auctions in Tanzania continue to clear at high levels.
- India, FOB New Delhi: W320 at 7.15 EUR/kg should stay firm, retaining a modest premium to Vietnamese offers amid steady domestic demand.
- Europe, FCA Netherlands: WW320 at 5.25 EUR/kg is likely to hold flat in the very short term, with limited nearby liquidity and buyers focusing on spot rather than forward positions.