European Cashew Prices Edge Higher While Vietnam FOB Softens

European cashew prices are edging higher on FCA Dordrecht offers, while Vietnam FOB quotations have eased slightly, reflecting softer kernel values in origin despite firm global demand. The near-term outlook is mildly bullish for EU-delivered product but more balanced in Vietnam, where strong exports temper further downside. The market is entering the year-end buying window with steady retail demand in Europe and Asia and continued strong export performance from Vietnam. Recent Vietnamese data show cashew exports and values up year-on-year, underpinned by resilient global consumption and robust shipments to China and the EU. In the Netherlands, cool, unsettled weather into mid-November coincides with stable logistics and no weather-related disruptions to port operations. In Hanoi, overcast, warm conditions with only light rain risks over the next three days suggest no immediate weather stress for nearby processing zones.

Prices

FCA cashew offers in Dordrecht (Netherlands) are modestly firmer across most grades. Organic LWP cashew kernels are quoted at EUR 5.25/kg FCA, while conventional WW320 stands at EUR 5.30/kg FCA and organic WW320 at EUR 6.40/kg FCA. Broken and FS grades show similar firmness, with conventional FS at EUR 4.00/kg FCA and organic FS at EUR 5.55/kg FCA, indicating solid demand for value segments as well.

FOB offers from Hanoi (Vietnam) are slightly softer week-on-week. Conventional WW320 cashew kernels are indicated at EUR 7.20/kg FOB, WW240 at EUR 8.10/kg FOB and WS at EUR 6.10/kg FOB. Lower-grade SP and LP are quoted around the mid-EUR 4 to low‑5/kg FOB range, while LWP is at EUR 5.65/kg FOB, reflecting mild pressure at origin despite firm export volumes.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the dominant global supplier of cashew kernels, including to Europe, and continues to post export growth in both volume and value in 2026. Export volumes in the first nine months of the year rose by more than 3% while export value increased over 7%, signaling firm prices and healthy downstream demand. China is the leading outlet, but the EU maintains a significant and growing share, ensuring consistent pull on Vietnamese FOB offers.

On the demand side, European consumption of tree nuts, including cashews, continues to benefit from the health and plant-based snacking trend. Retail margins remain under some pressure from logistics and energy costs, but no major demand destruction is evident. Against this backdrop, the slight softening of Vietnam FOB prices appears linked more to local competition among processors and recent large shipments than to any structural weakness in global demand.

Weather & Logistics (NL, VN)

In the Netherlands, the 3-day forecast for Dordrecht (November 15–17, 2026) points to cool, mostly cloudy conditions with occasional light rain and drizzle, but no severe weather. Temperatures hover in the single digits to low teens Celsius, typical for mid-November, and should not disrupt inland transport or port operations for cashew arrivals and distribution.

In Hanoi and northern Vietnam, multiple forecasts show overcast to light rain conditions with daytime temperatures in the high 20s to around 30°C and only moderate rainfall probabilities over the next few days. This pattern is seasonally normal for November and does not signal any immediate threat to processing activity or short-haul logistics from nearby ports. No tropical storm or flood-related disruptions are flagged for the current period in the main cashew-processing clusters.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near-term, the combination of firmer FCA prices in the Netherlands and softer FOB indications in Vietnam suggests slightly widening origin–destination margins. With Vietnam’s export program strong and demand in Europe stable, the bias is for EU-delivered prices to remain firm to slightly higher into late November, while further downside at origin appears limited by raw cashew nut costs and robust Asian demand.

Trading outlook (next 1–3 weeks)

• European buyers (NL, EU): Consider covering a portion of Q1 2027 needs now, especially for WW320 and organic grades, as FCA prices are edging up and logistics remain smooth.
• Importers & traders: Current slight softness in Vietnam FOB offers creates an opportunity to lock in WW240/WW320 positions before potential pre–Lunar New Year tightening, given strong export momentum.
• Vietnamese processors: With export volumes and values up, focus on managing raw nut procurement and hedging inventory rather than aggressively discounting kernels, as global demand fundamentals remain constructive.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction

• Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht, all grades): Bias slightly upward over the next three days, supported by steady demand and recent small price increases.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi, kernels): Bias broadly stable to mildly softer as exporters compete for contracts, though downside appears limited by strong export flows and firm raw material costs.