Cashew Prices Edge Higher as EU Demand Meets Firm Vietnam Supply

Cashew kernel prices are edging higher into early November, supported by firm EU demand and steady Vietnamese supply, while weather in Hanoi and logistics into the Netherlands remain broadly favourable. The move is gradual rather than explosive, but buyers are starting to accept slightly higher replacement costs for standard grades. With no major weather or crop shock in key origins, the current firmness looks demand-led and likely to persist in the short term. In Vietnam, exporters continue to benefit from strong kernel exports after a record year in 2025, with Europe consolidating its role as a key growth market. EU buyers are still focused on secure, traceable supply and diversified origins, but Vietnam remains the dominant kernel supplier into Rotterdam and other European ports. Weather in Hanoi is seasonally warm and humid but not disruptive, while Dordrecht in the Netherlands is experiencing cool, mostly dry autumn conditions, supporting normal port and onward distribution operations. Short-term, this points to a firm-to-slightly-higher price bias as buyers cover Q4 and early Q1 needs.

Prices

Vietnamese FOB Hanoi offers for cashew kernels have inched up across grades. WW240 is quoted at 8.15 EUR/kg FOB, WW320 at 7.25 EUR/kg FOB, WS at 6.15 EUR/kg FOB, LWP at 5.65 EUR/kg FOB, LP at 5.32 EUR/kg FOB and SP at 4.70 EUR/kg FOB, all slightly above late-October levels.

In the Netherlands, FCA Dordrecht prices show a similar firming pattern. Conventional WW320 is at 5.25 EUR/kg FCA and organic WW320 at 6.35 EUR/kg FCA. Broken grades are also higher, with conventional FS at 3.95 EUR/kg FCA and SWP at 3.30 EUR/kg FCA, while LWP stands at 3.80 EUR/kg FCA. Organic FS is quoted at 5.50 EUR/kg FCA and organic LWP at 5.20 EUR/kg FCA, pointing to solid offtake in the EU snack and ingredient segments.

Supply & Demand

Global cashew supply into Vietnam remains comfortable after two seasons of strong raw nut arrivals from West Africa and Cambodia, which helped keep factories well supplied and utilisation high. However, processors are reluctant to offer aggressive discounts given elevated raw nut replacement costs and tighter farmer selling in some African origins.

On the demand side, Europe and the US continue to underpin kernel flows, with Europe in particular strengthening its role in Vietnam’s export portfolio and showing steady growth in snack and ingredient demand. Chinese buying has normalised after a sharp increase in 2025, but still absorbs a sizeable share of Vietnamese kernels, keeping overall trade volumes high and supporting today’s firmer price tone.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is balanced-to-tight: raw cashew nut availability is adequate, but the pipeline of low-priced kernels has thinned following sustained import demand in the first half of the year. With limited evidence of demand destruction at current price levels, especially in Europe, sellers feel comfortable defending recent increases in WW240 and WW320.

Weather in Hanoi over the next few days is seasonally warm and humid, with maximum temperatures around 30–32°C, high humidity near 80–85% and episodes of light drizzle or local thunderstorms. This is typical for late October–early November and does not materially disrupt processing or inland logistics. In Dordrecht, daytime highs around 11–13°C with mainly dry or light-rain conditions are forecast, supporting smooth port operations and inland distribution to EU buyers.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With EU demand stable and Vietnam’s export pipeline well committed into Q4, the short-term price bias for kernels ex-Vietnam and at Dutch warehouses remains mildly upward. The absence of weather-related shocks in key regions (NL, VN) suggests that any near-term volatility will come rather from shifts in buying interest or macro sentiment than from supply disruptions.

• EU roasters and packers: Consider covering a portion of Q1 2027 needs at current FCA Dordrecht levels, especially for WW320 and key broken grades, as further small increments are more likely than a pull-back in the next few weeks.
• Importers in NL: Maintain close contact with Vietnamese suppliers on shipment timing; with firm global demand, prompt FOB slots for standard grades may tighten, favouring buyers who lock in early.
• Vietnamese exporters: Use the current stable weather window and firm demand to secure forward contracts, but remain flexible on specifications and shipment periods to capture late EU and US buying.

3‑Day Regional Price & Directional Outlook

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): Prices for WW grades and main broken grades are expected to remain firm with a slight upward bias over the next three days, supported by steady overseas demand and benign local weather.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA): Cashew kernel prices are likely to hold at current levels to slightly higher in the very short term, as replacement costs from origin and consistent EU buying limit downside potential.