Cashew Market Holds Steady as India’s Festive Demand Window Opens

Cashew prices are broadly steady into early October, with limited buying and selling in India keeping the market range-bound even as the wider dry-fruit complex shows early festive activity. Traders expect demand to build closer to Diwali, which could tighten availability and lend mild upside, but for now cashews lag the firmness seen in almonds. India’s Delhi dry-fruit market reports stable cashew quotations while California almond kernels have already moved higher into the festive window. This suggests retailers and stockists are still in the early stages of cashew purchasing, waiting for clearer signals on festive offtake and imported arrivals. Globally, kernel quotations out of Vietnam, India and Europe show a flat week-on-week pattern, reflecting comfortable pipeline stocks and no major supply shock at origin.

Prices

In Delhi’s physical market, cashew prices remain steady, with both buying and selling described as limited even as overall dry-fruit activity starts to pick up. This contrasts with almonds, where California kernels have risen by about ₹15–20/kg in the last week, highlighting that cashews have not yet shared in the festive-led price strength.

Export and re-export quotations from key hubs underline this sideways tone. Vietnam FOB cashew kernels are unchanged, with WW240 at EUR 8.02/kg, WW320 at EUR 7.12/kg and LP at EUR 5.20/kg. Indian FOB New Delhi offers show only marginal upticks, with non-organic W320 at EUR 7.15/kg and W450 at EUR 6.45/kg. In Europe, FCA Dordrecht prices are flat, with WW320 at EUR 5.20/kg and FS at EUR 3.90/kg.

Supply & Demand

Domestically in India, current trade feedback points to a calm cashew market: stockists are present but not aggressive, and retail demand is still building. The same Delhi report notes that almonds, pistachios, raisins and walnuts are mostly stable, reinforcing the idea that the festive buying wave is only just starting to emerge rather than in full swing.

Seasonally, India’s dry-fruit consumption typically accelerates from August through December, driven by festivals, weddings and corporate gifting, with cashews playing a central role in sweets and premium gift packs. Recent mandi data show moderate arrivals and a small softening in some regional wholesale cashew prices at the start of October, consistent with adequate near-term supply. At the global level, prior increases in raw cashew nut imports into India and steady throughput from African origins and Vietnam help keep kernel availability comfortable going into the 2026/27 cycle.

Fundamentals

The key fundamental signal from India’s spot market is that cashew is in a wait-and-see phase. With almonds already reacting to slightly tighter import availability and early festive demand, cashew’s stability suggests that existing stocks and recent kernel imports are sufficient to meet present requirements without forcing buyers to chase prices higher.

On the supply side, India continues to rely heavily on imported raw cashew nuts, particularly from West Africa and Southeast Asia, while Vietnam retains its role as the main global processing and export hub. This diversified sourcing, combined with the absence of any major weather or logistics shock reported in the last few days, keeps the global balance sheet comfortable. Demand growth in India remains structurally positive, but much of the immediate upside risk is concentrated in the short festive window around Diwali.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Into the Diwali period, the most probable scenario is a gradual firming of cashew prices rather than a sharp spike, as demand improves from sweet makers, retailers and corporate gifting channels. However, unlike almonds, cashew starts this phase from a more neutral price base, which should temper volatility unless imports are unexpectedly disrupted.

• Buyers / Retailers: Use current steadiness to cover near-term Diwali needs, but stagger purchases to monitor how demand actually materialises. Avoid overstocking premium grades while end-demand signals are still forming.
• Stockists / Wholesalers: Maintain balanced inventories; consider modest additional coverage in core grades (e.g., W320, W240) if local sales show a clear festive pickup, but be cautious about assuming a strong price rally.
• Exporters: With FOB prices stable across Vietnam and India, focus on securing freight and managing currency and credit risk rather than speculating on near-term price appreciation.

Short-Term Price Indication (3 days)

• Vietnam – Hanoi, FOB kernels: WW240 around EUR 8.02/kg, WW320 around EUR 7.12/kg – bias: sideways.
• India – New Delhi, FOB kernels: W320 around EUR 7.15/kg, W450 around EUR 6.45/kg – bias: steady to mildly firm if festive inquiries build.
• Europe – Dordrecht, FCA kernels: WW320 around EUR 5.20/kg, FS around EUR 3.90/kg – bias: sideways with good availability.